ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks AG3 some of the numbers being given earlier in here were way off, you should be the only one allowed to give euro qpf:) Good luck down there! People look at SV maps which are horrendous for qpf numbers. The euro still basically SUCKS for NYC because the precip is light and comes in small increments of .07"-.12" and it adds up to .32" through 7am tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Richmond got snow. He was expecting all rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think as many of the local mets have said....Wind will really be the main story along and closer to the coast for many of the major cities up along i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 People look at SV maps which are horrendous for qpf numbers. The euro still basically SUCKS for NYC because the precip is light and comes in small increments of .07"-.12" and it adds up to .32" through 7am tomorrow morning. Yeah it;s the worst solution, but .32" is alot better than ZERO, which is what I heard from others on another forum(which is incorrect). the EURO is probably 1-3" for me, a blend of everything is 2-4/5", since EURO is the only model below .5" with the coastal(GFS close, maybe it's .45) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Congrats, DT? Richmond got snow. He did not get squat he is on the east side of Richmond and they got all rain, only the west side of Richmond got snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 People look at SV maps which are horrendous for qpf numbers. The euro still basically SUCKS for NYC because the precip is light and comes in small increments of .07"-.12" and it adds up to .32" through 7am tomorrow morning. That's not going to do it. That would essentially be white rain near the city. Inland or away from the heat island would be maybe 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Even though Mets don't want to admit it, it seems like the 12z NAM is out peforming 12z Euro right now. Just look at the 6 hour forecasts on both models. Euro barely has any preciin in SNJ. Mount Holly even says the storm is over performing currently with stronger winds along the coast...they also say the storm should linger for days. (they obviously don't seem to be taking 12z Euro for granted) Any professional thoughts on this are appreciated. Mets preferred. As much as people hate on the NAM, it seems to be winning so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 according to the map posted by SACRUS looks like the LP is NW of even the NAM... true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it just me or does the storm look like it's not really moving - at least per the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's not going to do it. That would essentially be white rain near the city. Inland or away from the heat island would be maybe 1-3". I don't think the euro is any accumulating snow at all for the city. Rates are too weak. Eastern LI gets better rates on the euro and they might see 1"-3". The rgem agrees with the euro also. And has about 1" for the city and 1"-3" for LI, with pockets of 4"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it just me or does the storm look like it's not really moving - at least per the radar. That's what kills us. The storm is stopped in it's tracks by the confluence to the north. Then the Lakes vort catches up to it and essentially kicks it ENE and mainly misses our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it just me or does the storm look like it's not really moving - at least per the radar.Its hung up or at the last its crawling under the confluence , it will slide east over time and take the guts of the system with it,Re start in New England .. CPK will not see an inch of snow from this event IMO .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Amazing, we really still don't know what is going to happen..Could be Nothing for the city/LI or all of a sudden all the pieces come together and we are snowing to beat the band for 36 hours. So much QPF, so many possibilities....Who knows? Let's not throw in the towel...not just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its hung up or at the last its crawling under the confluence , it will slide east over time and take the guts of the system with it, Re start in New England .. CPK will not see an inch of snow from this event IMO .... Let the event finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton has been really bullish this winter for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't think the euro is any accumulating snow at all for the city. Rates are too weak. Eastern LI gets better rates on the euro and they might see 1"-3". The rgem agrees with the euro also. And has about 1" for the city and 1"-3" for LI, with pockets of 4"-6". The RGEM puts a lot more stock in the second wave to deliver for us. With that it had up to 1.0" of liquid as snow in spots on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's what kills us. The storm is stopped in it's tracks by the confluence to the north. Then the Lakes vort catches up to it and essentially kicks it ENE and mainly misses our area. The lakes vort then eventually stops the storm again for a short period and that's how SNE gets dumped on. Essentially, that little lakes shortwave kicks the storm out and screws us, while then destroying Boston after it passes us. Very bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Let the event finish Best post. People are dismissing this event before it even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't think Boston will win with this event either...:Maybe the hills to their west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 silence on the SREFS cant be good (maybe the arent out yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't think Boston will win with this event either...:Maybe the hills to their west. In any event, this will be a wacky windy storm...fun for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The RGEM puts a lot more stock in the second wave to deliver for us. With that it had up to 1.0" of liquid as snow in spots on LI. The rgem is a great event for everyone for the 2nd event. But the problem is that the rgem is not good past hour 24. I would use caution using the rgem past hour 24. Through hour 24, it's the single best model in the world, IMO. Better then the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its hung up or at the last its crawling under the confluence , it will slide east over time and take the guts of the system with it, Re start in New England .. CPK will not see an inch of snow from this event IMO .... it most be very entertaining for you to be here for every event telling us is not going to snow. Drop it already..we know is a difficult system. We know we possibly wont get anything.stop it gets old after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its hung up or at the last its crawling under the confluence , it will slide east over time and take the guts of the system with it, Re start in New England .. CPK will not see an inch of snow from this event IMO .... Sounds good in theory but what about some of the Models showing 1 to 1.5 QPF does that not happen either or will it be mostly rain ? Curious to see the SREF and Nam coming up soon to see if they backed off or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 silence on the SREFS cant be good Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't think Boston will win with this event either...:Maybe the hills to their west Euro/RGEM combo is not something to go against. They both show 12"+ for the City of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Best post. People are dismissing this event before it even started. Biggest problem with this board..happens every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not out yet yeah, i edited my post with parenthesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Biggest problem with this board..happens every storm It's not just this board, it's on every board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Let the event finish So if I opined 6 to 12 thats kool , I wouldnt have to wait ... But when I say nothing because I believe the dynamics will b off the playing field tonite and I dont believe the NAMs norlun tomrrw , not kool ? ok just checking I think Eastern Long Island has a chance at 4 inches of snow before it ends , but not the city thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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