Storm At Sea Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just feel bad for folks...nam is a pos. last norlun really worked out well for these parts! Funny how quickly things change, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You sure? Looks less to me on the black and whites. i estimated about 5-7 first frame (24) 10-12 the next frame (36) and 5-7 for 48. Could be off by 5ish mm but that would still be around 20mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Much more tame than the NAM. I count between 15 - 20 on the BW maps. Anyway lets see the GFS. I have found the RGEM to be a bot of a dry/east bias the last few storms. And like it's global sister the GGEM, warm biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A model can be consistently wrong. Nam does not have a good range. Well the one thing you can take from the NAM is overall consistency compared to every other model the past 24 hours. It's also in it's great range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just feel bad for folks...nam is a pos. last norlun really worked out well for these parts! if the nam is right (not saying it will be at all) we wouldn't need to depend on the inverted trough. We get about 1.0 qpf from the initial slug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yes, agreed. And I have to say that I think there is a less than 1% chance the GFS will come around. The thought that the NAM is correct and the GFS and Euro and every other global model are wrong is rather, well, extremely remote. The NAM has shown consistently this winter to be about 100 miles or so NW with the precip shield with every major storm this winter for the most part. You ve been riding the NAM all day in the face of most of us Being. suspect. I will b honest and I mean no disrespect to the NCEP modelers ( what a world this has become this PC stuff makes me wana vomit ). But the NAM has kicked me in the sack before , so I am skeptical until I see the GFS at ths range or the Euro. Just one and then I will b there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just feel bad for folks...nam is a pos. last norlun really worked out well for these parts! Yes, and like I said before, it had 35 inches for my location in Northern New Jersey on the 0z run only 10 hours before the snow started. I got 6 inches. And I agree with you too. The NAM does not have a good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You ve been riding the NAM all day in the face of most of us Being. suspect. I will b honest and I mean no disrespect to the NCEP modelers ( what a world this has become this PC stuff makes me wana vomit ). But the NAM has kicked me in the sack before , so I am skeptical until I see the GFS at ths range or the Euro. Just one and then I will b there. Not mindlessly bashing the models has nothing to do with political correctness. Anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A model can be consistently wrong. Nam does not have a good range.well hopefully when you're wrong tomorrow you'll admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yes, and like I said before, it had 35 inches for my location in Northern New Jersey on the 0z run only 10 hours before the snow started. I got 6 inches. And I agree with you too. The NAM does not have a good range. The SE trend on the ULL is my main concern, and the NAM did trend it that way again. Hopefully what the GFS pulled is becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just feel bad for folks...nam is a pos. last norlun really worked out well for these parts! It's not a norlun, it's a much larger inverted trough which are much more consistent than norluns, one made an appearence in NE a little while back and hit them pretty good. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 norlun is really a non factor on the nam IMO,I'm pretty sure everyone would be happy just with the coastal based on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS coming in similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 0z GFS slightly more SE with H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the GGEM is much better than at 12z, can't see temps, but QPF is posted on the New England forum, we get around .4" from 0z to 12z thursday, and more on either side of that. Don't think it's far enough out yet for the trough. -skisheep EDIT: It might be the RGEM, hard to tell from the maps that they post, but I think it's the GGEM, can someone confirm one way or the other? EDIT 2: It's the RGEM, sorry! Still a nice hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I dont get why he has to be wrong? The NAM has been atrocious for a couple of years now. So are u thinking the NAM scores the coup over all other models? If the NAM would have showed .6" qpf most here would have written it off...then it would have been a horrible model. "we toss" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is there anything that can be done with the NAM or is it completely hopeless? Serious question. I will say this the Nam has had a similar solution for 5 straight runs now. If it completely out in left field now less than 24 hrs from the start it should be rendered useless and discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS is a tick SE at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the GGEM is much better than at 12z, can't see temps, but QPF is posted on the New England forum, we get around .4" from 0z to 12z thursday, and more on either side of that. Don't think it's far enough out yet for the trough. -skisheep its not the GGEM. Its the RGEM. the GGEM doesnt come out until 1130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS continues to advertise a wildly different scenario tomorrow than the high resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the GGEM is much better than at 12z, can't see temps, but QPF is posted on the New England forum, we get around .4" from 0z to 12z thursday, and more on either side of that. Don't think it's far enough out yet for the trough. -skisheep The GGEM isn't out yet. What you're looking at is likely the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS is a tick SE at 24 well a tick SE would be horrible, considering how awful 18Z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS continues to advertise a wildly different scenario tomorrow than the high resolution models. Arrgghh. And the ULL can stop trending SE like, yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS is worse than the 18z run...seems pretty far southeast with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 its not the GGEM. Its the RGEM. the GGEM doesnt come out until 1130 Thanks for pointing that out, I noticed that just after I posted Still a nice hit for us. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If you were looking for something good, don't look at the 0z GFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I really can't recall a time where the GFS and NAM were so different this close to an event. We're not even talking about the NAM being overdone, we're talking completely different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ya GFS is officially worse than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 if the GFS is right we essentially get no accumulating snow and i would bet that this will be closer to reality than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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