Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 3" would be 100 times more than I have right now this super band is pretty lame so far up here might be good to have a nice bust .. we're all getting too cocky these days.. tho i think we knew the gradient had high bust potential. perhaps we got fooled late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 this super band is pretty lame so far up here might be good to have a nice bust .. we're all getting too cocky these days.. tho i think we knew the gradient had high bust potential. perhaps we got fooled late yesterday. nobody got cocky untl yesterday evening...I couldnt give a f-uck about cockiness...I just want snow...I dont give a crap about the other stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just woke up. Decent snowfall at my house but my immediate impression ran toward what I am reading in the last few pages from zwyts I appear to be riding a REALLY fine line between snow and rain, and only have around an inch so far. Grassy surfaces accumulation only at this point. Glad to read baroclinic's thoughts, but this is going to be a really close call here and I don't expect huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You might want to check out the latest LWX AFD. Its a fascinating read http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off The radar has this curious crosshatched look to it. This is the look of energies in transition. The last time I saw this look to the radar was back in........................................................................................ That's right: February 2010. We are all about to be utterly destroyed by heavy snows, monster bands and winds that may create near whiteout conditions. Strap yourselves in securely and hold on, this is going to be one hell of a wild ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My temp is slightly above freezing: 32.1/32. I think this suggests that the (lack of) intensity is to blame for poor accumulation combined with urbanization . And, though I cannot be sure, it appears to be mixing still. If the landscape isn't whitened by 7am I will sit shiva the remainder of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 this super band is pretty lame so far up here might be good to have a nice bust .. we're all getting too cocky these days.. tho i think we knew the gradient had high bust potential. perhaps we got fooled late yesterday. It's been over 2 years without 2" I think we're all far from cocky at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Zwyts I apologize thought you were in DC until I switched from mobile skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks Jeb, that was a good read from LWX. Always a tense time waiting for the coastal to take over and hoping it unfolds like it is progged. I remember clearly how most of us gave up on the the second February blitz in 2010 until all of a sudden radar exploded just before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's been over 2 years without 2" I think we're all far from cocky at this point. im talking the industry as a whole.. the idea that models are so good we live in a post-surprise world. i dont need to get into fights with people upset about snow tho.. let it play out a bit longer. over recent days plenty said repeatedly that west was near a slam dunk.. this area was tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CST WED MAR 06 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV-VA-MD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060825Z - 061230Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH AN HOUR WILL BE COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MD SWWD INTO NRN VA AND ERN WV. LOCALIZED HIGHER RATES /1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR/ WILL PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR AND INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ALONG THE E-FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WV-MD-VA. DISCUSSION...THE LAST FEW HOURS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT IMPINGING ON SRN-CNTRL VA AS A MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES EWD FROM ERN KY/TN AND STRADDLES THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z. CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE MID LEVEL DRYSLOT EVOLUTION FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR NEAR THE D.C. - BALTIMORE VICINITY. THE NAM APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SEEMINGLY PROBABLE IN MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THIS REGION WHEN COMPARED TO LOOPS OF RADAR MOSAIC REFLECTIVITY. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE D.C. AND BALTIMORE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 09-10Z AND 10-11Z...RESPECTIVELY. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH AN ABATEMENT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AS THE DEEP SATURATED COLUMN JUXTAPOSED WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES RELEGATED FARTHER W OVER NRN VA...NERN WV...AND WRN MD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW /CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NERN NC/ DEVELOPING NEWD TO THE TIDEWATER VICINITY BY 12-15Z. UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OWING TO INCREASING ELY FLOW IN THE H9-H85 LAYER AROUND 40 KTS WILL ACT TO AUGMENT SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE ERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PARTS OF WV-MD-VA /RATES 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 im talking the industry as a whole.. the idea that models are so good we live in a post-surprise world. i dont need to get into fights with people upset about snow tho.. let it play out a bit longer. over recent days plenty said repeatedly that west was near a slam dunk.. this area was tricky. I'm more angry at myself that I bought into it....both as a snow fan and as a forecaster....my forecast from yesterday afternoon was money...and then I blew the NAM and GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CST WED MAR 06 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV-VA-MD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060825Z - 061230Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH AN HOUR WILL BE COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MD SWWD INTO NRN VA AND ERN WV. LOCALIZED HIGHER RATES /1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR/ WILL PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR AND INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ALONG THE E-FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WV-MD-VA. DISCUSSION...THE LAST FEW HOURS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT IMPINGING ON SRN-CNTRL VA AS A MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES EWD FROM ERN KY/TN AND STRADDLES THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z. CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE MID LEVEL DRYSLOT EVOLUTION FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR NEAR THE D.C. - BALTIMORE VICINITY. THE NAM APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SEEMINGLY PROBABLE IN MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THIS REGION WHEN COMPARED TO LOOPS OF RADAR MOSAIC REFLECTIVITY. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE D.C. AND BALTIMORE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 09-10Z AND 10-11Z...RESPECTIVELY. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH AN ABATEMENT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AS THE DEEP SATURATED COLUMN JUXTAPOSED WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES RELEGATED FARTHER W OVER NRN VA...NERN WV...AND WRN MD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW /CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NERN NC/ DEVELOPING NEWD TO THE TIDEWATER VICINITY BY 12-15Z. UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OWING TO INCREASING ELY FLOW IN THE H9-H85 LAYER AROUND 40 KTS WILL ACT TO AUGMENT SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE ERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PARTS OF WV-MD-VA /RATES 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR/. thanks for a discussion on a dryslot from 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If nothing else the radar continues to look really nice. #positive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 im talking the industry as a whole.. the idea that models are so good we live in a post-surprise world. i dont need to get into fights with people upset about snow tho.. let it play out a bit longer. over recent days plenty said repeatedly that west was near a slam dunk.. this area was tricky. Meh, not terribly affected either way, did just enjoy 30" up in SNE a few weeks back. More for the rest of DC. On topic, radar has a great look, and actually can see the formation of the pivot band right over the metro. How it plays out, and whether it'll stick, guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just woke up from a bit of sleep. Live in a third-floor apt. that faces some trees on the S side of CHO. Out of the corner of my eye just saw what I thought was lightning. Nope. Transformers blowing. Really sick aqua-tinted flashes with these deep, visceral buzzing sounds--at least three of them. Haven't heard/seen that since the derecho. Can hear trees cracking all over. Probably won't have power for too much longer. But what a show on the way out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Meh, not terribly affected either way, did just enjoy 30" up in SNE a few weeks back. More for the rest of DC. On topic, radar has a great look, and actually can see the formation of the pivot band right over the metro. How it plays out, and whether it'll stick, guess we'll see. The storm is getting is still in its early stages I think most will be still pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Glancing at the NAM, the storm is in a transition period, as the low over the mountains should be transferring to the coast shortly. I would assume that once it cranks up, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hope this rain changes back!! Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There are some pictures of snow covered roads on Twitter from around the US 50/I-66 area. Martin Cornick (who posts on here) also had some nice pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Meh, not terribly affected either way, did just enjoy 30" up in SNE a few weeks back. More for the rest of DC. On topic, radar has a great look, and actually can see the formation of the pivot band right over the metro. How it plays out, and whether it'll stick, guess we'll see. i should have slept. lol. not sure how much that first band remains the focus. hopefully not much since it moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah- noticed the transformers going. Going to be a problem. Moderate snow here now- about 6" thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The storm is getting is still in its early stages I think most will be still pleased I think some people are rightfully getting disappointed because the WAA is waining, not realizing the coastal isn't supposed to start to strengthen until between 9z and 12z 9around now). After that, colder air should be drawn in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 at least i told people at work we might get a fed close and wonder why in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 It looks like some banding of yellow is coming together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouchot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Raining in Dulles...come on baby get going I don't want to go to the office today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 <p>Heaviest snow of the night I'm guessing here @ Front Royal, with this paste I'm guessing dawn is going to be absolutely beautiful. </p> <p> </p> <p>From now till 10 o'clock the radar & death band will form, however like I keep saying there is going to be a highly convective band that forms from the CCB turning in on itself. This will be from about DC to central DE. I think this band forms around 11-1pm </p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just took this on the way out to my workout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just turned to rain here in 21214. This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think some people are rightfully getting disappointed because the WAA is waining, not realizing the coastal isn't supposed to start to strengthen until between 9z and 12z 9around now). After that, colder air should be drawn in. Yeah thats exactly it. Wouldn't be the first time these hi res models overdid waa snow if thats the. Case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just came from the window and I got the sense that something is changing...the dendrites look better, the air felt colder (wind has switched to the N)...that sort of thing. I think things will turnaround within the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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