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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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Maybe the last three years, from BDB to today, have been nature's way of driving every snow enthusiast away from ever tracking weather again. Then, when all the forum traffic is gone, all the facebook pages and twitter feeds are deleted, everyone's giving up tracking, and no one cares anymore...

 

...then we'll get a surprise MECS the first week of April.

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DC & Philly absolutely suck. Philly had a similar storm in November where 24hrs out models showed heavy rates producing 6-12" even with marginal air. You know the rest of that story. Our fortunes will change eventually. Just sucks that in this hobby you need to take 8 month breaks in between. 

That 6-12 actually DID verify in Ocean and Monmouth Counties. It's impossible to nail a NORLUN perfectly.

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I was telling Matt that I literally felt sick to my stomach watching what happened around DC today...and I don't even live there. But as huge snow lover it was impossible not to sympathize. I was thinking DCA had a legit shot at 6" (and IAD 10")...the post mortem on this will be interesting (and painful to look at). I'm guessing one of the factors was how tucked in the low was down in VA...it may have made warming the BL more efficient to the north and also focused the core of the dynamics in C VA. Still, probably some other factors...but its a sh** sandwich going through these types of busts.

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I was telling Matt that I literally felt sick to my stomach watching what happened around DC today...and I don't even live there. But as huge snow lover it was impossible not to sympathize. I was thinking DCA had a legit shot at 6" (and IAD 10")...the post mortem on this will be interesting (and painful to look at). I'm guessing one of the factors was how tucked in the low was down in VA...it may have made warming the BL more efficient to the north and also focused the core of the dynamics in C VA. Still, probably some other factors...but its a sh** sandwich going through these types of busts.

He says as he fuels up his snowblower for another 10 inches. ;)

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He says as he fuels up his snowblower for another 10 inches. ;)

 

No guarantees here either.

 

I know how it felt in Feb 2010...we got screwed on a Miller B while you guys were getting 1-2 feet. My worst bust I've had forecasting professionally. Watching shredded precip with a temp of 33F while to the south was in the 20s and heavy snow. Its a sickening feeling.

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We probably should have seen this one coming anyway. If the clown maps aren't even giving you snow you need to pay attention.

In retrospect its totally obvious we are all snow hounds who put blinders on at least in the screw zone. That said if things came together better we could have possibly had those few extra degrees. Plenty of moisture but a weird anemic banding structure at a lot of times. When that first band hit me around 330 and it was 20 feet wide and not that impressive it was probably done. The stuff around 830 would have been amazing at 3am and then continuing to like 6. Everyone should have bailed as the sun came up and it was a suck fest around here. March might as well be summer if you aren't on a hilltop.
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I was telling Matt that I literally felt sick to my stomach watching what happened around DC today...and I don't even live there. But as huge snow lover it was impossible not to sympathize. I was thinking DCA had a legit shot at 6" (and IAD 10")...the post mortem on this will be interesting (and painful to look at). I'm guessing one of the factors was how tucked in the low was down in VA...it may have made warming the BL more efficient to the north and also focused the core of the dynamics in C VA. Still, probably some other factors...but its a sh** sandwich going through these types of busts.

 

the lack of cold air anywhere close to us made getting a good snow even more difficult than it already is.  we don't do complex scenarios very well down here and never have as far as i can remember.  we need simple storms.  cold air in place with waa.  we pull a coup every now and then, but when you only average 15" or so of snow a year and most of that is skewed by big winters, then you know you're in a tough spot.  it just is what is, and if anything, due to global warming (for whatever reason), it's getting a little worse.

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In retrospect its totally obvious we are all snow hounds who put blinders on at least in the screw zone. That said if things came together better we could have possibly had those few extra degrees. Plenty of moisture but a weird anemic banding structure at a lot of times. When that first band hit me around 330 and it was 20 feet wide and not that impressive it was probably done. The stuff around 830 would have been amazing at 3am and then continuing to like 6. Everyone should have bailed as the sun came up and it was a suck feat around here.

Every one bought into it. We wanted snow. Oh well. Spring is coming.

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the lack of cold air anywhere close to us made getting a good snow even more difficult than it already is.  we don't do complex scenarios very well down here and never have as far as i can remember.  we need simple storms.  cold air in place with waa.  we pull a coup every now and then, but when you only average 15" or so of snow a year and most of that is skewed by big winters, then you know you're in a tough spot.  it just is what is, and if anything, due to global warming (for whatever reason), it's getting a little worse.

 

 

I think its easy in hindsight to just say "it was complex and it was a warm antecedent airmass). I was going for big snow down there too and I had no real emotional investment. So many classic things were in place for a wet snow bomb...but perhaps the the low just tuckd in a bit too close and the antecedent airmass didn't help. The really intense banding didn't seem to materialize as any meteorologist or weather savvy person would have predcted based on all the available data. Most people started as snow or went to snow very quickly at the onset of the storm...so there were other factors at play other than the stale airmass.

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I think its easy in hindsight to just say "it was complex and it was a warm antecedent airmass). I was going for big snow down there too and I had no real emotional investment. So many classic things were in place for a wet snow bomb...but perhaps the the low just tuckd in a bit too close and the antecedent airmass didn't help. The really intense banding didn't seem to materialize as any meteorologist or weather savvy person would have predcted based on all the available data. Most people started as snow or went to snow very quickly at the onset of the storm...so there were other factors at play other than the stale airmass.

 

we needed the storm to develop faster, we needed it stronger, we needed it a little further away, we needed cooler ocean temps, we needed a few degrees colder...honestly, before the storm came deep down i had a feeling we needed too many things for this one.  i wasn't happy about the temps outside on tuesday before this storm.  it reminded me of how it felt the day before the 93 superstorm except it wasn't a superstorm.  even that storm kicked over to sleet for hours.  it's just not easy here.

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