mdhokie Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lots of wiggle room 90 hours out. At least we are tracking SOMETHING. Super tight window between 1" and 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 God forbid anyone not only highlight every single positive. It's ok Mitch.. Or cry about things that will change. This will only go so far north, but a 50 miles jog either way is very plausible. That will mean everything to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No real "north shift" is even required. I have no idea why anyone south the Mason-Dixon would whine about this run. It is mind-boggling to me. It's March in a marginal air mass and he isn't in elevation. Maybe others should try to stay grounded instead of chopping up the GFS and snorting it for a high, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait until the NAM gets a hold of this lol....If the GFS is showing 2-3" of QPF imagine the NAM. Bit OT but right now I am 75% sure I will make a roadtrip for this storm since it will be the last chance to see snow most likely this year.. What is a good spot in NW VA that has some elevation and does well usually? Go to CHO...They look to get destroyed. Or even out this way. We are gonna get hit hard as well and temps shouldnt be an issue out here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It will be super annoying listening to the Baltimore weenies whine until 24 hours out when the models shift the heaviest snow axis to northern MD like always happens.This x1000Mitch do u really want to be in the gfs bullseye 84 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's March in a marginal air mass and he isn't in elevation. Maybe others should try to stay grounded instead of chopping up the GFS and snorting it for a high, But it's purples! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Or cry about things that will change. This will only go so far north, but a 50 miles jog either way is very plausible. That will mean everything to Baltimore. I know you guys weenie 100% of the time up there but it's not usually easy to get a HECS here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Qpf is really getting insane. Euro/gfs are showing nam-like outputs. 2nd run in a row (or is it 3rd with the 12z?) showing copious amounts of QPF over the area. Kinda weird that the GFS/EURO/DGEX combo is showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the problem is not me I am analyzing a model run I am the messenger I am not worrying, I am not predicting, I am not whining, I am discussing a wx model, including predicted temps if you folks can't handle that, not my problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The higher elevations are demolished. Anybody above 1K...congrats on a condo collapser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know you guys weenie 100% of the time up there but it's not usually easy to get a HECS here. Even if half of that GFS output is snow (.8" or so) we will all rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NAM is going to require us to build a Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 wow CHO wow wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at those snow maps, this looks like a VA only party. Too bad it's Sat night and not Tues night. My oh my, it's going to be a long 3 days. Overall though you have to love today's events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here you go 4-8" will about do it for I95 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No real "north shift" is even required. I have no idea why anyone south the Mason-Dixon would whine about this run. It is mind-boggling to me. Agreed I think with the track now shown by most guidance the northern edge of the Ccb will bleed north a bit not because the storm really came north but just because usually the northern edge makes it a bit further then depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Even if the track does not budge odds are that the precip shield will expand slightly more than shown. I like where I sit on the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know you guys weenie 100% of the time up there but it's not usually easy to get a HECS here. No one is asking for a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know you guys weenie 100% of the time up there but it's not usually easy to get a HECS here. I don't think we disagree...I guess my point is to not worry too hard about specifics this far out since things can change in a hurry when it's marginal. I understand fully how tough it is to get a HECS there. You still have some issues to work out at H5 over New England and energy diving into this trough from the Plains too...nevermind where the deformation band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-04-18/news/36779813_1_highpointers-club-britton-hill-high-point Edit - hmmm...thanks,...lower than I always thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm going to bed. this forum is unreadable now. Getting caught up in QPF lines with 35 miles 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 2nd run in a row (or is it 3rd with the 12z?) showing copious amounts of QPF over the area. Kinda weird that the GFS/EURO/DGEX combo is showing this It means alot. We are in the NW quadrant of a significant storm. Its going to snow as depicted. And probably quite a bit. We are rightfully spooked and dont wanna jump. I wont till 0z tmrw but well modeled consistency w/ blocks to our north scream of a done deal in DC w/ a high qpf event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ScreenShot071.jpg Here you go 4-8" will about do it for I95 on this run. thanks for proving my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the problem is not me I am analyzing a model run I am the messenger I am not worrying, I am not predicting, I am not whining, I am discussing a wx model, including predicted temps if you folks can't handle that, not my problem Mitch at 90 hours you appear to be in some pretty good precip. Your 850 temps are around -5. You have ne winds. There's no way the surface is more than 34 or so. I think you'd be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ScreenShot071.jpg Here you go 4-8" will about do it for I95 on this run. That looks like a fair bit less than 4-8" along the I-95 corridor to my eyes, more like 2-4" with a sharp gradient before going into the much higher values to the west/northwest. Not that it really matters to parse such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this run is better than the 00z GFS from last night and its better than the .13 we usually get when we track a snowstorm for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 thanks for proving my point I agree. Now please shutup about it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait until the NAM gets a hold of this lol....If the GFS is showing 2-3" of QPF imagine the NAM. Bit OT but right now I am 75% sure I will make a roadtrip for this storm since it will be the last chance to see snow most likely this year.. What is a good spot in NW VA that has some elevation and does well usually? Try 522 S of Front Royal. Easy hwy access and 2000+ elevation crossing Chester's Gap. In marginal temp events the 8 mile drive from Front Royal feels like you've driven to another world. Dec 5 2009 there was about 4 sloppy inches in town and I drove up to Chester's Gap where the snow was mid-shin deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah I really can't see DC getting only 2 inches with this storm track and amount of precip. That snowfall map only shows 2-4 (dark green)for 95 not 4-8, but I don't believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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