superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The block seemed to break down, unfortunately. This run is disaster at the surface. N NC might eek out an inch, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 MA gets crushed on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The block seemed to break down, unfortunately. Destroys the MA, atleast this will stop there complaining. We need a 50 mile tick south, this just ticked 50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm getting a little nervous at where I'm sitting in SWVA if this thing starts to keep trending north. Still gets me good, but DC area looks to cash in @96-99 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This run isn't even going to cut it for central VA. It's like a DC special. EDIT: May squeak out an inch or two here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Is the surface low moving SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well that energy basically just sits on the coast of NC and spins and spins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DCA is going to get 15-20"+ of snow this run. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well that energy basically just sits on the coast of NC and spins and spins. Hence the reason this is far from a no go for NC, especially if a deformation band can develop over the NC Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The block seemed to break down, unfortunately. This run is disaster at the surface. N NC might eek out an inch, but that's about it. Running out of time with this one and the trends are not friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Guys everyone relax it is the 18Z dont forget. That block has been very strong on all the runs. Lets wait til 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm waiting until 12z on Monday. We should have good sampling of energy. Not looking hot right now but I still think there is room to play here. Big factor has been pointed out will be the energy coming into California and of course that big block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Guys everyone relax it is the 18Z dont forget. That block has been very strong on all the runs. Lets wait til 0z. Nothing wrong with the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The SLP over NC really hasnt changed trackwise to the naked eye imo from 12z to 18z but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The SLP over NC really hasnt changed trackwise to the naked eye imo from 12z to 18z but I could be wrong. Ok NVM did jump north a bit after reviewing it went from RDU up to RIC so I guess that is significant for one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Since it is the 18Z GFS it will either show a totally suppressed solution or the biggest storm of all time. Either way it will be wrong. Guys everyone relax it is the 18Z dont forget. That block has been very strong on all the runs. Lets wait til 0z. From the MA sub, Phineas posted this just before 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think one model run everyone is going crazy, think the blocking is still to strong for anything north of va. may be wishful thinking but with the time left before the storm gets here this thing could trend back south just as it trended north in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I just don't buy it going that far north with the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Remember the lower resolution of the 6z and 18z, we really can trust them. Better off trusting the new 0z tonight. It's been stated by NOAA themselves and there is a thread here about it that the 18 and 6 runs are just as important and verify fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Remember the lower resolution of the 6z and 18z, we really can't trust them. Better off trusting the new 0z tonight. They're not lower resolution. Now, tonight's runs will have some new sampling data as our concerned energy moves ashore, so they will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Remember the lower resolution of the 6z and 18z, we really can't trust them. Better off trusting the new 0z tonight. I don't remember that because it's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 . Block is significntly weakened this run and ULL over new england is gone compared to 12z! This allows heights to rise on the coast and allows more precip further north! Very feb 6th 2010 ala and wouldnt be shocked we get another 50 mile morth shift So, are you just trolling here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gonna be a long couple of days in here if folks are gonna hug each model run......the 18Z is whacked most likely, and we need to wait till they either run recon or all the players are able to be sampled. I am also interested more in what it does after if gets off Hatteras and hangs out since I am located in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From the MA sub, Phineas posted this just before 4pm. I did not know he even posted this. I mean with the confluence up north it just doesnt make sense to me. Obviously im not a met but over one run where it relaxes the block and everyone jumps after continuously showing it run after run doesnt sell me. 0z will be very telling as someone mentioned new data sampling. Still very excited about all the potential with this system even for people in Winston Salem/GSO etc. Maybe not as much as a chance for them down that way but nonetheless still a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Tough to beat the northward trend. As I said VA storm for the most part (or even DC at this rate). Sorry for all of us in the Triangle who will hobble out with two consecutive awful winters if it plays out this way. It is a myth that hte 18z can just be thrown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the storm isn't even on shore yet. this is why I think you don't want to be in the snow zone yet. a lot will probably change tomorrow when the models sample the storm. all I know is a met was talking on line last night and breaking down the possibilities and said there is no way this storm can get up the east coast with the blocking that is going on. its going to be a wait and see thing and it probably won't be until Monday before we can trust the model runs. sit back and wait I guess. Edit. you know if we in nc don't get any good snow out of this, I think I'm done for the winter, this to me was the last hope for a good storm. been watching this for 10 days with high hopes and here we go again,,,,,,maybe. this can still trend south, anything is possible. if not I'm done, come on spring. I'm tired of this winterless season again. Just tired of getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gonna be a long couple of days in here if folks are gonna hug each model run......the 18Z is whacked most likely, and we need to wait till they either run recon or all the players are able to be sampled. I am also interested more in what it does after if gets off Hatteras and hangs out since I am located in eastern NC. Yeah we have a long way to go still. As superjames said the new data from tonights runs should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well at least the clown maps are still good looking for my area. I'd take 9 inches any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Às long as I see the euro ensemble showing a major lick hitting the triad in day 3+ territory, I'm not gonna sweat the American model swing trend like a lot of folks tend to get caught up in. Granted the latest euro ensemble leaves no wiggle room for mby. I actually feel pretty good about our chances in the piedmont and northern coastal plain. We all need a coastal exit point of Wilmington myrtle beach. The 18z gfs would be case closed no doubt. The next 2-3 model cycles (0z and 12z)will be telling so be patient before cliff diving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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