WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. Very tight consensus...0z tonight is likely the last chance IMO and it is game on in VA...limited parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm giving it till 12z Monday before I totally throw in the towel. There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. Noticed our only friend in that bunch is the outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. It's a tight spread, but they still far enough part to make a huge difference over portions of NC. For example, the UK Met, GGEM, and Euro are all seemingly far enough south to give N NC some significant snow (though the maps for the UK Met and GGEM make it hard to really tell for sure) whereas the GFS is a no-go outside of maybe an inch or two (as is the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's a tight spread, but they still far enough part to make a huge difference over portions of NC. For example, the UK Met, GGEM, and Euro are all seemingly far enough south to give N NC some significant snow (though the maps for the UK Met and GGEM make it hard to really tell for sure) whereas the GFS is a no-go outside of maybe an inch or two (as is the NAM). I'd rather have those three on my side than the GFS and NAM. And the NAM looks like it is out to lunch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm telling you, even if I was in Virginia I wouldn't feel safe on this one -- at 72 850 low is STILL straddling Ind./Ohio/Mich. border. There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. This is going to be central VA's best hit in many years, watch, may set a record or two... Kinda crazy when you see it coming in to the regional range, storm is likely going to verify, some alarm bells given the period in which the models carried it, especially with the EC for the past 2-3 days painting 2"+ QPF along 64 in VA. Just south of that is likely the pivot and SN dominant type, as it temporally stalls off NE NC/HAT/VA Capes. Area bounded by 66 in VA/WV (do not see this going much north of the MD boarder in to PA), 81 corridor from Winchester to Roanoke, back to Charleston WV and Western MD east to 95, maybe down to 40. Jackpot likely within about 60 miles of a line from Charlottesville to Front Royal, maybe back down towards Farmville. Areas along the boarder of NC should do fairly well east of Danville, as could RDU and GSO depending on how and where the system stacks, but the track overall should be suppressed, with the 850 maybe kicking out to ILM rather than Crabtree Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want. If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now. Why even look at the model if it's that bad? It sounds like your agreeing with us but questioning our motives...YES we all are hoping for favorable trends. Unless your model of choice for mid-range modeling is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I did not look closely at the NAM but its surface low position over ERN NC at 84 hours seems much faster than previous guidance...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd rather have those three on my side than the GFS and NAM. And the NAM looks like it is out to lunch right now. I wouldn't call the NAM "out to lunch". I would say that it is playing catch-up, and you will see some crazy solutions until it gets a handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 12z euro surface LP goes from Memphis at 72 To just north of Fayetteville at 96. Unfortunately I don't have access to euro 500 mb maps. Bottom line is the euro op and especially euro ensembles say not so fast at sticking a fork in this pup yet. 90 + hours is chicken feed when all ur hoping for is a 50- 75 mile shift. We will be getting out of the sparse data zone tomorrow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range? Seems few and far between. The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others? Granted, the sample size isn't large (i.e. model tracking on the web) Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range? Seems few and far between. The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others? Granted, the sample size isn't large. Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though. I guess that is why JB says this storm will correct north as they almost always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range? Seems few and far between. The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others? Granted, the sample size isn't large. Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though. How many times have we seen a setup like this, though? It's pretty bizarre. I'm not sure if the north trend is a given, as a result. This isn't one of the million Miller As that we got in 2009-2010. It seemed like we had a new one every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The biggest GFS run of the winter has started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The biggest GFS run of the winter has started... Well, I'm counting on the euro to tell the tale, but we'll see what the gfs has to say. Believe it will be supportive of the consistency though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want. If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now. Why even look at the model if it's that bad? I understand what you are saying here. For me, it's more the repeatedly getting bent over from the NAM after putting stock in it that gives me nausea. How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range? Seems few and far between. The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others? Granted, the sample size isn't large (i.e. model tracking on the web) Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though. I am waving your flag grit. I never had much hope for this, due to my love/hate relationship with ULL's as well as the fact that the tick north was really "on the wall" early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How many times have we seen a setup like this, though? It's pretty bizarre. I'm not sure if the north trend is a given, as a result. This isn't one of the million Miller As that we got in 2009-2010. It seemed like we had a new one every week. I don't recall a ULL tracking due east over the NC Apps, I am sure it's happened but couldn't find any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How many times have we seen a setup like this, though? It's pretty bizarre. I'm not sure if the north trend is a given, as a result. This isn't one of the million Miller As that we got in 2009-2010. It seemed like we had a new one every week. Well, I'm counting on the euro to tell the tale, but we'll see what the gfs has to say. Believe it will be supportive of the consistency though.I'm with you. First I need to see the gfs be consistent with itself a couple of runs, then most important the euro has to agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Through 33 hours, it's nice to at least see a model run where the dadgum upper low hasn't trended north. Also, the Calif. s/w is considerably weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Too early on NAM resolution 4.5 days out. Monday a.m. track will verify. Other than that trust your last decent GFS and ECMWF 5 day. trends Chill. and I mean everything and everybody. Do you want to just hand it to DT, accu, and the MA? Too easy. Rain to snow in Central NC. Lots of the super wet stuff. 2 days from then it wlll be gone and more daffodils will bloom... eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The biggest GFS run of the winter has started... Miss the main side super 0z model threads MA and NE fighting over QPF scraps while us in the SE usually looked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Through 42, pretty darned similar to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Some subtle differences that are not good for us through 54, will wait to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Meh, there it goes trending a tad north of 18z run at 51 hours vs. 57 on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wish I had better news but out to 60 the GFS looks further north than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Meh, there it goes trending a tad north of 18z run at 51 hours vs. 57 on 18z. stronger,no change stronger @69 GFS is about 100 miles north of 18z. Not a good trend at all. same as 12,much stronger ouch,stage right she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Except the 500 low is about half the height of Nebraska farther north at 60 hours than 18z was at 66. stronger,no change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Except the 500 low is about half the height of Nebraska farther north at 60 hours than 18z was at 66. just turing,no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @69 GFS is about 100 miles north of 18z. Not a good trend at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I say toss this run! It doesn't seem realistic to me but I could be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That 1020 HP in Florida is a lot further north the past few gfs runs and may be what's pushing or causing things to cut further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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