tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks pretty consistent to me. All show a NC shaft and a VA/DC special. image.jpg Actually 4 of the 6 give northern sections of NC a decent event. Exceptions are the GFS and the NAM. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM has a few hours of snow for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It isn't like it is over for northern NC just yet. The 12Z Euro did give GSO ~3" for example. It also gave the NC/VA border area to the north ~8". Let's see what the 0Z Good Doctor does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did anyone see the latest CMC model run? Or w/e its refereed to as http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I'm sure i have the correct run. 0z 3/4/13 12z 3/3 Same Hour 0z 3/4 Few hours later Either way, it has Central VA getting hit hardest but not northern VA up to DC like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking over the 00z Canadian, that deformation band on the GGEM appears pretty potent as it trains over the same areas for a good ~6 hours. At 12z, it basically gave NC zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS just gave Boston a foot of snow. The Euro and most other modeling give Boston nothing. That's a huge difference. The GFS also just gave areas in VA that the Euro progged for 12" of snow nothing but rain. Actually it gave Boston 2+ feet of snow. That run would be the storm of the century. Beast run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can see the storm diving west here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Not sure what this means but it looks to be happening quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It sure does and the flow coming in to California looks enhanced as well. I hope we wind up on the right side of the fence. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can see the storm diving west here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Not sure what this means but it looks to be happening quick I'm looking at the westerly flow north of Maine. If tonight's euro get a good sample of these movements before initialization, it might swing that ULL down into northern 'Bama before all is said and done. Would they postpone the Euro run to adjust input parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 File in for the Euro, ladies and gentlemen. Time to see if it stays consistent with its accumulating snow across the northern Piedmont. The Doctor has initialized. Just something to note on initialization, the ULL is a little bit south of the position that was progged at this time from last night's 00z run. --- The Euro is south (compared to 00z last night), but stronger with our ULL through 24. Its center was in south-central North Dakota and now it is in north-central South Dakota. Little north, but weaker at 48. Heights are lower across the Carolinas, though, so we'll see where she goes. Definitely a step in the wrong direction, as it turns out, though perhaps not a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro is a touch north with less backside snow in northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0Z Doctor definitely not as good a run for northern NC as was the 12Z Doc. Confirmed by less snow on the clown map. <1" Triad and Triangle on 0Z. However, Asheville now gets 1" vs. <1" on 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks a lot like UKMet and Canadian, don't think it's going to head northeast and hit New England like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0Z Doctor definitely not as good a run for northern NC as was the 12Z Doc. Confirmed by less snow on the clown map. <1" Triad and Triangle on 0Z. However, Asheville now gets 1" vs. <1" on 12Z. Thanks, Larry. Definitely a step in the wrong direction, but perhaps we'll still see a little something accumulate. It sounds like most of the modeling, sans the GFS, is converging on a pretty similar solution now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00z Euro goes off the coast around the VA/NC border whereas 12z euro had it going OTS just south of NC border. Just a small shift north. Still doesn't hit NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Game over. 1inch of snow in Asheville is thready worthy. They are in a snow drought with DC. Both of these places need this storm. Granted, I don't think Asheville gets 1 inch but guess there is a non-zero chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1inch of snow in Asheville is thready worthy. They are in a snow drought with DC. Both of these places need this storm. Granted, I don't think Asheville gets 1 inch but guess there is a non-zero chance. Do you know Asheville's climate? They always get shafted LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here we go GSP kind of pulling the trigger for the mountains and I like it! AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA458 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA...FROM AVERY COUNTY SOUTH TO GRAHAM COUNTY. INCLUDING NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITHIN THE VALLEYS...RIDGES MAY RECEIVE 7 TO 9 INCHES.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES. STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE LINE MAY SEE DEEP SNOW DRIFTS ACROSS ROADS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE IN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY524 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DINNERTIME TUESDAY WITH HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING FROM 7PM TO 12AM.* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY COULD TOPPLE TREES AND POWER LINES BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well you know it's bad when even the JMA goes north. I'll still wait for today's runs but this looks pretty much like game set match. Congrats VA. Hopefully someone in NC can pull out a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't get it, how are they predicting 7-9" for mtn tops or even 3-5" in the valleys?? Doesn't even look like 1-2" on most of the models. And 2-6" of HEAVY WET SNOW for watauga? Looks like 1-3" of light snow if we are lucky. Very surprising totals being thrown out for usually conservative services. Anyone want to shed some light on why they are throwing these high totals around for the mtns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RAH calling for a rain/snow mix with no accumulation. Just another messy weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GSP's first snow map: Here is part of the overnight afd: TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMPLEX SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE NC/VALINE...REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z. THE CLOSED H5 LOW IS EXPECTED TOTRACK ACROSS THE NC MTNS BETWEEN 6Z TO 12Z. THE GREATEST FORCINGASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NE OF THECENTER...HOWEVER...LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL PEAK NEAR 25 MB/HRAROUND 6Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THECWA...POSSIBLY EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WED. IN THE WAKE OF THEFRONT...A DRY SLOT WILL SWING SW TO NE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ANDPIEDMONT ALONG WITH STRONG H85 CAA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY FALLINTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE LATEEVENING...WITH MTN LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 20S. EAST OF THE MTNS...LOWSSHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE CAA WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDTRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY SLOTSHOULD END MEASURABLE PRECIP EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER 9Z. FORECASTSOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PROFILES ACROSS THE MTNS WILL SEE LIMITEDMOISTURE AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY BELOW H7...BUT ADEQUATE FOR SNOWGENERATION. DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...H85 NW WINDS WILL INCREASETO 40 TO 50 KTS...INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ALONG THE TNLINE.NWFS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGHTHE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLYMORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW TUESDAY EVENING ANDNWFS WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARNING CRITERIASNOWFALL ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WE WILLHIGHLIGHT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 0ZWED TO 0Z THURS...INCLUDING BUNCOMBE CO. SNOWFALL ALONG THE TN LINEMAY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITHIN THE VALLEYS TO AROUND 8 INCHESACROSS THE RIDGES. Finally the WSW for Buncombe: Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...RESENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC458 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013...A MID WEEK STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE BORDERCOUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA....A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ALONG THESTATE LINE BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN COLD ANDMOIST FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINATHROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. INADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWINGSNOW...POSSIBLY GENERATING DEEP SNOW DRIFTS NEAR THE TENNESSEELINE.NCZ053-042000-/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0004.130306T0000Z-130307T0000Z/BUNCOMBE-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ASHEVILLE458 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...BUNCOMBE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY AREAS BETWEEN BLACK MOUNTAIN TO BARNARDSVILLE.* HAZARDS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE TO SKYLAND. GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS LEICESTER AND WEAVERVILLE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM BLACK MOUNTAIN TO BARNARDSVILLE COULD SEE 5 INCHES OR MORE.* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES. STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. Do I think this will verify?......probably not. With a forecast like this little model jogs can become critical. They could be the difference in no snow or our best snow in 2 winters. I never thought that there would be some dramatic shift south. Maybe this will explain why some of us are rooting for any jog to the S what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So more snow in macon county than buncombe. Yet they issue a winter storm watch for buncombe and not one for macon. Just to add. Other than upslope snow for the usual spots I don't see anything out of this. What is it with gsp this year? They sure are trigger happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I tried to warn you guys. This is an absolute travesty for those of us in the triangle who endure a 2nd consecutive 1" winter. Wow what a horrible two years. Time to head north for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What's bizarre to me is that the NWS and WRAL are still talking about the possibility of some snow around here when it looks highly unlikely. Usually its the other way around. Congrats on your 1" eyewall. A few miles south, we got nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It always goes north. We really need a low modeled to go through Florida 120 out if we want to have a shot here. Another crappy winter. If it turns out that it does indeed track through northern NC or southern VA, then I'd say the GFS well outperformed the Euro on this one....even though it might be out to lunch with it going up to the NE now (of course, that could be right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not much more can be said. Holding hope for our NC folks still looking at a reasoned chance, but once again, it wasn't our year in the Sandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No question this is a terrible way to go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It always goes north. We really need a low modeled to go through Florida 120 out if we want to have a shot here. Another crappy winter. If it turns out that it does indeed track through northern NC or southern VA, then I'd say the GFS well outperformed the Euro on this one....even though it might be out to lunch with it going up to the NE now (of course, that could be right). Well your guys only hope is the EPS control run it had descent wrap around for you guys. Probably .40 or so of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.