audioguy3107 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where's the fun in that? Well, apparently it isn't much fun for you to see model discussion not pan out the way you would like, and it's also not as fun to just ignore the model runs and discussion and be surprised when you wake up in the morning and see a snowfall like when you were 10 years old. You do realize that you can't have it both ways, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 @21 our energy is interacting with the energy out in Canada like HM was talking about. This could help slingshot that ULL more south. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 just looking at this map I would guess all of wnc would get a hefty snowfall, i guess i'm focusing on the red and being on the north and northwest side eventually. That map is a real-time analysis. Like the water vapor loop, its a representation of current conditions. And like the wv loop, perhaps we can look at it to see what may happen in the future. A met could explain it more lucidly than I, but basically you are looking at the winds of the upper atmosphere (300mb jetstreams) and then the potential advection (movement) of vorticies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Block looks more robust through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well 00z NAM is further north @30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Or slower? #falsehope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT's first guess! I'm in the 4-8 lllollol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 @36 it's further north but also further elongated. If that southern energy moves just a tad north there could be a phase. I have no clue what that would exactly do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT's first guess! I'm in the 4-8 lollol lol Not much difference in miles between 1 to 2 and 4 to 8. Just a slight shift south can make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow. Didn't expect that from DT. Looks like the Euro but with a little bit of a tick south. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 One thing that should be noted is that it's much more neutrally tilted than 18z. 18z had it pretty negative by this time. Also, the ULL has been open for a few frames, which never happened in past runs, to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks fr posting Frosty. There is a fine point on that map he drew where you go from 0 to being inside the 4-8 inch line over the course of about 25 miles. Atleast he puts it out there to be judged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well this is going to have a bizarre look. @39 there is interaction with that southern energy the ULL hasn't closed off and the energy is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA The potential remains for significant snow fall across portions of southwest Virginia Tuesday night into Wednesday. This map depicts the probability of greater than 4" of snowfall.Red Shading: At least 70%Green Shading: At least 40%Blue Shading: At Least 10% For you guys in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hmmm... @51 it's actually further south but much weaker. Only one contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Are my eyes playing tricks on me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Due to that vort energy and the orientation this is much better for WNC. Snow breaking out in CLT @54...at least it looks like it on the SFC. This might be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z NAM vs. 00z NAM is night and day almost. The phase happens much later and the southern energy is less positively tilted. Trend or the NAM just being out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Brick! Brick! Brick!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hard to tell but WNC including CLT might get 2-4 inches from this run. Crazy old NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z NAM vs. 00z NAM is night and day almost. The phase happens much later and the southern energy is less positively tilted. Trend or the NAM just being out to lunch? I mean clearly since it is one run of the NAM you just throw it out mostly. However, I'll take my bone and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did the 00z NAM just throw the state of North Carolina a late winter bone? Holy cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow at 51! Look at 5h comparing it to 18z 57 and as Asheville Don posted there is the surface with the low further south over NW SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow. This thing crushes central VA at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT predicting the 0z NAM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z NAM vs. 00z NAM is night and day almost. The phase happens much later and the southern energy is less positively tilted. Trend or the NAM just being out to lunch? I think HM called it. He mentioned how that energy in Canada may interact and help break that ULL off and push it south. It almost looks like that on this run but didn't quite do it till the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very close to UKMET, is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 hr and 57 absolute sexiness low headed toward outer banks rather than the VA capes awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a step toward the UKMET solution but it does not drive the H5 as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00z GFS will be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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