metalicwx366 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is terrible. Lets move on to the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking at a WV loop. Could someone verify that this LP is starting its dive SE already? I do believe so. In looking at the 24-hour water vapor loop here, its movement has mostly been to the SE. http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ The whole water vapor mass for many hundreds of miles north is sort of moving SE as well! It seems to have to do with the two large systems to the west in the Pacific starting to overlap eachother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GEM is much further southwest than the NAM. Grasping at straws here. GFS had no changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 2 contour low @ 48 at the very southern extreme tip of Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS matches the 00z NAM fairly well at 500mb through 24hr. Whether that means anything remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow, VA gets a total shatftjob this run. Wow. The surface low is just east of the Chesapeake Bay at hr 75. DC gets smashed, of course, after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS run pretty much the same compared to 18z run...my only question would be the initial 12-24 hours on the 0z run, does it get that far east before diving down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not sure if Charlottesville even got 6" that run. Richmond is all-rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ukie came north -- not much, but enough to extinguish hope. Burger, I know you were waiting til the Monday 12zs, but I'm afraid Dr. Carter already called the time of death on this one for us south of I-40 folks. Good night all -- good luck to Virginia and northern NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This stuff is ridiculous following it. When does UKMET and GGEM come out. Curious to see if it stays with being south compared to Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS crushes the NE too, epic way to end winter for the MA and NE. If the GFS is correct this will be heavy weight knock out, no longer will Euro be king, it will be the GFS. I bet Euro caves tonight and DT goes down in flames. BTW, UK ticked north, SLP over Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ukie came north -- not much, but enough to extinguish hope. Burger, I know you were waiting til the Monday 12zs, but I'm afraid Dr. Carter already called the time of death on this one for us south of I-40 folks. Good night all -- good luck to Virginia and northern NC folks. Agreed, I can't believe the GFS can be this wrong, Euro must cave tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS run pretty much the same compared to 18z run...my only question would be the initial 12-24 hours on the 0z run, does it get that far east before diving down? I don't think so, WV map shows, I think, the ULL moving SSE already. The southern energy looks to be clearing out the way. I know its more nowcasting than anything, but wouldn't be surprised if this ends up in eastern OK. Edit: I think the Euro might trend even further south. I'm on the southern end of the NC escarpment right at the NC/SC line so I doubt I'll cash in, But others will and I might make a chase to TN if needed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS brings the surface low almost to Cape Cod before finally shunting it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Agreed, I can't believe the GFS can be this wrong, Euro must cave tonight. I can. Seen it happen many times. Not that the euro ukmet exit between morehead an hatteras is gonna spell anything but cold rain for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think so, WV map shows, I think, the ULL moving SSE already. The southern energy looks to be clearing out the way. I know its more nowcasting than anything, but wouldn't be surprised if this ends up in eastern OK. If that spin ends up in Southern OK, then I'll be getting one last bag of snow melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS brings the surface low almost to Cape Cod before finally shunting it south. Crazy, it snows in Boston for 36 hours. Fascinating storm, I am actually rooting for the GFS now, it will forever shed the GOOFUS name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When does Dr. No Dr. Keep-Hope-Alive come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When does Dr. No Dr. Keep-Hope-Alive come in? Check back in around 1:20am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UK and GGEM are really close, says the GFS is in another world right now. In fact it looked like the GGEM ticked south a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I thought someone else said the UKIE ticked north. Can someone confirm? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is our storm regardless of where some models want to show it. image -Brad Pan. Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I thought someone else said the UKIE ticked north. Can someone confirm? TW I think it did, but it was so far south to begin with, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The surface low on the Canadian does not go north of the NC/VA border. On the GFS, the surface low gets as far north as ~100 miles south of Cape Cod. The Ukie goes a little further north once way out to sea, but nothing like the GFS. WTF?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I thought someone else said the UKIE ticked north. Can someone confirm? TW Yes, but wayyyy south of GFS, it lines up well with GGEM and Euro now and the NAM to some extent. The GFS is on another planet, it's either really good and the rest of the models in the world suck or it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The surface low on the Canadian does not go north of the NC/VA border. On the GFS, the surface low gets as far north as ~100 miles south of Cape Cod. WTF?????? I know it's insane, I don't ever recall the models this far apart for a 60-72 hour model prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT posted this which perhaps explains the GFS' huge jog north up the coast which no other model shows. (I am referring to the fact that the GFS drags the surface low way up the coast and cremes Boston). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks pretty consistent to me. All show a NC shaft and a VA/DC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks pretty consistent to me. All show a NC shaft and a VA/DC special. image.jpg Those are all old model runs with an exception to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks pretty consistent to me. All show a NC shaft and a VA/DC special. The GFS just gave Boston a foot of snow. The Euro and most other modeling give Boston nothing. That's a huge difference. The GFS also just gave areas in VA that the Euro progged for 12" of snow nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.