Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well your guys only hope is the EPS control run it had descent wrap around for you guys. Probably .40 or so of snow. That would be nice, though, I'm in the southern part of the county, so it probably tapers off to .1 IMBY, lol. It's been ticking north too, toward the unwaveringly north GFS. We'll see...but I've pretty much written this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No question this is a terrible way to go out. This is a kick in the nuts for sure, especially for RDU, we literrally will have everyone N/S/E/W of with a multi-inch accumulating snow. We don't gripe/complain as much as the MA folks and now they are getting there blizzard, maybe next winter we start off in full gripe mode! I am still very curious on to see how this storm unfolds to see if the GFS can score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think at this point we will be looking at trying to get a 20-30 minute snow shower on the wrap around outside of the mountains. That seems reasonable. Even in my backyard which is just south of the Triad, I haven't seen more than two inches of snow on the ground this year or last year. Still waiting on a 4 inch snow that covers every blade of grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By the way, however the rest of the winter turns out, I appreciate all the analysis and discussion this year. Lots of good, knowledgeable folks and their contributions make this a lot of fun, even when the weather sucks. And a special shout out to Burger with consistently awesome PBP the whole winter. This forum wouldn't be the same without that. Thanks, Burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That would be nice, though, I'm in the southern part of the county, so it probably tapers off to .1 IMBY, lol. It's been ticking north too, toward the unwaveringly north GFS. We'll see...but I've pretty much written this one off. I think for you guys there is still a chance albeit small but in the now casting realm. If the models are not handling that ULL correctly and it can bomb off the coast and wrap up like the EPS control run has showed the last couple of frames you're in business. As Robert has pointed out it's all going to depend on when that ULL dislodges and makes it's way south. Something to at least keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By the way, however the rest of the winter turns out, I appreciate all the analysis and discussion this year. Lots of good, knowledgeable folks and their contributions make this a lot of fun, even when the weather sucks. And a special shout out to Burger with consistently awesome PBP the whole winter. This forum wouldn't be the same without that. Thanks, Burger! Thanks, truth be told I am ready for spring. After this week I'll probably be checking on very rare occasions until Winter starts back up next year. Always fun being on these boards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is the crux of the problem for NC underwhelming blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think for you guys there is still a chance albeit small but in the now casting realm. If the models are not handling that ULL correctly and it can bomb off the coast and wrap up like the EPS control run has showed the last couple of frames you're in business. As Robert has pointed out it's all going to depend on when that ULL dislodges and makes it's way south. Something to at least keep an eye on. That is our only hope. I just wonder what happened to the great blocking people were talking about. I guess it was just not as strong as the models were showing in the long range. Seems we can't trust them outside 5 days at least when it comes to winter weather around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html We know it's over more than likely but I was also curious as to which feature the models are picking up on. On WV you can see two different vortex 1 in central to western Montana or the 1 over N. Dakota. It maybe in the process of dislodging. If the models are honing in on the vortex in S. Dakota then you can see why they are so far north with the system. But, on the other side if the 1 in Montana is not being picked up then a more southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Surprised to see this from RAH this morning. Louisburg is not far away from me. GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT THE MAIN TIME FRAME FORACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BEING WEDNESDAY MID/LATE MORNING INTO THEAFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTHIS TIME. HOWEVER... IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THEDEFORMATION BAND PIVOTING THROUGH OUR NORTH/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIESTHEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAYBE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROXBOROTO LOUISBURG TO ROCKY MOUNT. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SNOW...WNW TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND BECOMESMORE VERTICALLY STACKED ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... THINK WE COULD SEEWINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE SUSTAINED... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS30 TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY... WHICH COULD CREATE LOW VISBYS IN AREAS OFSNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is the crux of the problem for NC underwhelming blocking? with the downstream flow we have it's easy to blame the Pacific and lack of a ridge out west for not allowing our system to dig the block upstream would have had to be one heck of a block to make this happen for NC and especially areas further south and west crux of the problem is that we are cursed and the weather has a rather sinister habit of continually kicking all of us in the gonads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That is our only hope. I just wonder what happened to the great blocking people were talking about. I guess it was just not as strong as the models were showing in the long range. Seems we can't trust them outside 5 days at least when it comes to winter weather around here. Blocking was only slightly weaker, but the ULL weakened as it moved southeast on the models which is why it was able to be pulled more to the north. If it stayed stronger it would have bowled its way to UKMET & Euro solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seems we can't trust them outside 5 days at least when it comes to winter weather around here. Also, to be more of a Positive Pete, the models did a pretty darn good job of showing a serious winter storm for the area from over a week out. Just the laser thin margins of final track were not well depicted. Pretty good for predicting the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GSP certainly has had problems this year when projecting snow for Macon County. Not one of their early maps have been close to accurate and most of the time we've ended up with either nothing or under an inch or so. I've started to put disclaimers on Winter Weather Advisories and Watches issued for Macon County, noting that they're likely issued with an "abundance of caution." May be they'll get it back together in time for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would be cool if anyone can still do some pbp for us northern southeasterners see the nam is out to 9 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 with the downstream flow we have it's easy to blame the Pacific and lack of a ridge out west for not allowing our system to dig the block upstream would have had to be one heck of a block to make this happen for NC and especially areas further south and west crux of the problem is that we are cursed and the weather has a rather sinister habit of continually kicking all of us in the gonads True. That block is nice, and in another year, maybe it would work out. But with every single wave that has entered the US, we get bent over by another wave hot on its heals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is a kick in the nuts for sure, especially for RDU, we literrally will have everyone N/S/E/W of with a multi-inch accumulating snow. We don't gripe/complain as much as the MA folks and now they are getting there blizzard, maybe next winter we start off in full gripe mode! I am still very curious on to see how this storm unfolds to see if the GFS can score a coup. I agree. This year we had the "Triangle Triangle" as opposed to burger's "Bermuda Snow Triangle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z is either a smidge slow or a little southwest comparing to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Blocking is helping a little bit up in ME so far at 30 maybe a little better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seems we can't trust them outside 5 days at least when it comes to winter weather around here. You can't trust model details in the medium range. You can, however, glean a lot of info from them. IMO, this has been a very well-modeled storm for quite a while. Adjusting the track within a couple hundred miles from a week out is more than reasonable. So, if you took one model solution from last week and latched on to the idea of "it's going to snow 6" in GSO," then yes, that didn't work out. However, if you use the models as the tools they are and said "there will likely be a significant storm system impact the mid-Atlantic and/or upper Southeast," then that certainly worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Def a difference that's noticeable on the 33 hr image low is now over KY whereas it was heading up into Ohio on the 6z Edit: Blocking more west on the 12z is what's making the difference here hopefully it continues as the run goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You can't trust model details in the medium range. You can, however, glean a lot of info from them. IMO, this has been a very well-modeled storm for quite a while. Adjusting the track within a couple hundred miles from a week out is more than reasonable. So, if you took one model solution from last week and latched on to the idea of "it's going to snow 6" in GSO," then yes, that didn't work out. However, if you use the models as the tools they are and said "there will likely be a significant storm system impact the mid-Atlantic and/or upper Southeast," then that certainly worked out. Good post. But you are wasting your time. It aint getting in there, no matter how hard we all try. The models HAVE done remarkably well with this storm, from a general standpoint. There is simply no way one can claim otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 30Hr. 12z nam which piece of energy is the models honing in on. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam500mbvort030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Heavy precip breaking out on 36 low still to the southwest of 6z at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 True. That block is nice, and in another year, maybe it would work out. But with every single wave that has entered the US, we get bent over by another wave hot on its heals. yessir ... kicker systems coming in on the west coast truly do kick us in the nads every single time it seems as an aside, I could not have picked a better person to name myself after you, sir, are a legend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Good post. But you are wasting your time. It aint getting in there, no matter how hard we all try. The models HAVE done remarkably well with this storm, from a general standpoint. There is simply no way one can claim otherwise. LOL, I was about to post the same thing. I've tried for years and just have gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is the best blocking in New England yet better than 6z and even better than 0z when MA weenies were getting nervous the Nam was trending toward the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like east Tennessee and NC mountains are starting to get some snow by hour 33 on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would be cool if anyone can still do some pbp for us northern southeasterners see the nam is out to 9 hrs Well the NAM looks better for you guys it made about a 50 mile shift SE going into NC. Now if only it could keep that shift going until tomorrow morning and shift about 500 miles SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 @48hr it still crushes DC. I'm sorta ready for this to get here so I can get this nuisance event over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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