Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Watch the GFS come south on the next run so we just completely get confused as if we weren't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From what I hear most of western Virginia and C VA does pretty good again. I'm looking at probably something between the GFS and Euro verifying. ROA is still almost 2" QPF, you need to start rooting for the Euro hard, it helps us SE folks out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GSO and INT are both still good with this run, looks roughly 0.4-0.5" of precip that could be snow. RDU is roughly in the same range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If you look at the sampled points for RIC or DCA, I dont think they end up all snow. Roanoke gets crushed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 asheville's average snow is 7.4 and to date we are at like .3, thought this storm may put us over our average. maybe we'll get an inch at the rate its going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From what I hear most of western Virginia and C VA does pretty good again. I'm looking at probably something between the GFS and Euro verifying. Yea your right brother someone in the MA crew put out a qpf output off the EURO OP and its showing ROA, CHO and Fredericksburg as the big winners still at 1.75". I just dont know. At least the GGEM, UKMET, CANADIAN and EURO get us good still. Like your saying im hoping for some sort of compromise anything 6 and over im happy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can see NW NC from Triad back to the mountains getting some snow and the NC/VA boarder counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If you look at the sampled points for RIC or DCA, I dont think they end up all snow. Roanoke gets crushed though. RIC would have the heavy rates, DCA and IAD would be lighter rates, still snow but maybe not accumulating as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GSO and INT are both still good with this run, looks roughly 0.4-0.5" of precip that could be snow. RDU is roughly in the same range too. Less than before, but I'll take it. I will continue to hug the Euro and the UK Met until they dump me. RDU actually sounds a lot better this run. Sounds like the shift was quite small in the end, so I really don't know if we can make much of it. Even the most consistent models are going to fluctuate slightly as we head towards the end. As always, it will be interesting to see the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Less than before, but I'll take it. I will continue to hug the Euro and the UK Met until they dump me. RDU actually sounds a lot better this run. Sounds like the shift was quite small in the end, so I really don't know if we can make much of it. Even the most consistent models are going to fluctuate slightly as we head towards the end. The 12Z Doc clown vs. 0Z Doc: less snow for Asheville, HKY, and Charlotte (they all get <1"), and more for Triad and Triangle. GSO gets ~4"; Brickster ~3". Very tight gradient north and south of these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ROA is still almost 2" QPF, you need to start rooting for the Euro hard, it helps us SE folks out too! I've never hugged the Euro so hard in my (weenie) life! ..I see MA is sweating it even more now.. Someone is going to be utterly disappointed after everything is said and done. Still rooting for us southerners, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think one reason the Euro is not getting as far north and also why it get's pushed SE after hits the NC coast is the SLP never gets below a 1000, the GFS has a 991 SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Ens. run should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've never hugged the Euro so hard in my (weenie) life! ..I see MA is sweating it even more now.. Someone is going to be utterly disappointed after everything is said and done. Still rooting for us southerners, though! It is nuts, because a 50 mile shift is huge. Still 72 hours out which is crazy. I will say this, its the US versus the rest of the world with respect to these model runs. Since I live in the US I guess I have to root for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Less than before, but I'll take it. I will continue to hug the Euro and the UK Met until they dump me. RDU actually sounds a lot better this run. Sounds like the shift was quite small in the end, so I really don't know if we can make much of it. Even the most consistent models are going to fluctuate slightly as we head towards the end. As always, it will be interesting to see the ensemble mean. Exactly, until the one who brung us to the dance(euro/ ukmet) dumps us we have to hang in there. It will after midnight before the euro runs again.. I have to give credit due its been very consistent. I'll be heading to the feed and seed shop the moment it throws me to the curve and just get ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow reading the HPC model discussion is unbelievable taking into the account all the different variables with the models. One's south, one's north the other is northeast of that one and then you have the UKMET haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We still have tonight for some miracles but for most of us. I would say a time of death is in order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I can see NW NC from Triad back to the mountains getting some snow and the NC/VA boarder counties. You looking thru rose colored glasses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 and to think, this once included atlanta and points east of there, was hoping and still do after trending north it would trend back south at least some . thought the blocking up north was stronger than what it is or the models don't have it right yet. Edit. I do know there is still time but we're running out, starting to get close but still realize we're 2-3 days out. this is the only thing in nc favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC just broke out the ax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC just broke out the ax. this map gives asheville a 80% chance of a inch or better of snow wednesday and thursday and east of here the percentage really drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SURRY-STOKES-WILKES-YADKIN-HENRY-541 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATETUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-541 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT ANDINTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. THECOMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY TOPPLE TREES ANDLEAD TO POWER OUTAGES WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z British Model is farther South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HPC just broke out the ax. Those maps were made around 3 or 4 in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You looking thru rose colored glasses! It is a great set-up for some enhanced snow for our area pushing up against those mountains ringing out moisture. I have to meet a goal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, still some uncertainty but its becoming clearer that this wont be a producer for AL, GA, Most of SC (maybe extreme norther upstate), and most of NC. Mtns will do ok and maybe extreme northern NC. Oh, I'm talking about any snow accumulations ie over 2". JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If you look at the sampled points for RIC or DCA, I dont think they end up all snow. Roanoke gets crushed though. I've been looking at temps for a lot of areas.. including VA and some more northern places based off the last few days of models and a lot of them are rain, then snow, then rain, then mix, then snow, rain.. as you aluded to in an earlier post. I guess it's all about the strength of that low on the coast and what the ULL is doing. The Euro teased most of you in NC last night with the 200 mile shift Southward, and I had heard a met thought the Euro initialized incorrectly. The UKMet is still close for a lot of NC though, but it does have the very well known Southern bias on storm systems. I hope this works out for many in NC, but I have now 100% given up on much for Upstate SC, a lot of NC, and Hell... even some of VA. The Pacific wrecked us this year guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HM making some interesting observations in MA forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39568-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope/page-29#entry2173779 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HM making some interesting observations in MA forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39568-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope/page-29#entry2173779 Thanks for the link. Is it possible that the greater resolution of the Euro and UK Met could be allowing them to pick up on the northern wave while the lesser-resolution models like the GFS are not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 HM making some interesting observations in MA forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39568-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope/page-29#entry2173779 Good catch, thanks for sharing. The gist is HM would not be surprised to see a SE shift. But in the end I am not sure how that will help the NC cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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