Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 with all the trends of more sw, more digging you guys keep saying its the right direction but won't help us in nc. how much more sw would it have to go to help us? with all the jolts south and west you would thing by now we would be getting into the good snow range. since we weren't that far off to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 People sure are grasping at straws here. Time to just admit it's going to be either cold and dry or cold and rain. GSP will be right when it's all said and done. I don't see anyone grasping at straws. I just think you may not understand what we are rooting for. Worst case we want a solution like the Euro that may be north but comes the coast and just blows up with intensity to allow for wrap around snow which the GFS could still show. Best case we start to see some south trends as the data gets better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @66 it's a hair southwest of 6z position but it isn't gonna help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OK, at 63 it's definitely SW of 6z run at 69 hours, so that's something. Not much -- maybe 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS on the sfc even puts a lot of VA out of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Doesn't give me hardly anything in SW VA for two consecutive runs. Looks even drier than the 06z run so far. RIC might be in the best spot now per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sigh -- at 72, it ends up basically at same position as 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 hasn't this been trending south and west since last night. thats a pretty long trend and getting this much closer to the event maybe the trend will stay south somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 which one is more on the right track and has the storm better...GFS or EURO? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sigh -- at 72, it ends up basically at same position as 6z run. Yes the GFS is locked in right now, tough to see this shifting 50 miles south. CeVA and NoVA get destroyed, heavy snows for 12+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Meanwhile, 12z UK is relentless -- has 500mb low over Florence SC at 72 hours (vs. RDU for GFS/NAM) How many miles is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The big difference I can see with the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro last night is about a 300 mile shift SW and the orientation of that vort energy. That's making all the difference. If the 12z Euro follows 00z time to start hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am riding the UK train today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ukie, however, has true Miller B. Surface low transfers from N KY to extreme SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Meanwhile, 12z UK is relentless -- has 500mb low over Florence SC at 72 hours (vs. RDU for GFS/NAM) How many miles is that? ukierelentless.gif lol I will gladly take that The difference in modeling is almost getting comical right now. If I'm in VA I'm siting back with my hands on my head smiling. For us and the MA crew it's gonna be sink or swim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Meanwhile, 12z UK is relentless -- has 500mb low over Florence SC at 72 hours (vs. RDU for GFS/NAM) How many miles is that? ukierelentless.gif Raleigh is 120 miles north of Florence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Gosh this is brutal with the European models way south of the American models. Like you said Burger guess well have to wait until 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Meanwhile, 12z UK is relentless -- has 500mb low over Florence SC at 72 hours (vs. RDU for GFS/NAM) How many miles is that? ukierelentless.gif Raleigh to Florence is about 125 miles ... unless you stop for gifts at South of the Border. But it's far enough to make a HUGE difference for a lot of folks in NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 lol I will gladly take that The difference in modeling is almost getting comical right now. If I'm in VA I'm siting back with my hands on my head smiling. For us and the MA crew it's gonna be sink or swim. Idk man GFS was pretty dry for us in western VA and so was the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ukie, however, has true Miller B. Surface low transfers from N KY to extreme SE NC. Good point, we really need to know which model handles transfers better, the Euro has the SLP up in KY and does the transfer which is like the UK. The GFS has the SLP in Ohio...Maybe the GFS is better than the UK and Euro at transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We need to be rooting for the short range Canadian (GEM) check it out vs. the NAM both at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Little less enthused by Ukie after seeing 60 hours panel. The 850 low at 48 is over the SE Missouri boot. It then tracks WNW to the Indiana/KY/Ohio border at 60 before reappearing again to the WSW over Fayetteville NC. While the 500 low position looks good, I'm still not sure how the sensible weather works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Correct me if I am wrong but is it Euro, UKMETS, Canadian VS GFS and NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ok guys, i dont post much. burger i like how u think. the models are kinda all over the place. loos to me the south trend is something to keep an eye on. im not jumping ship @ all things are changing and can change within 6 hrs. of the event. good luck to all. im in central yadkin county n.c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The big difference I can see with the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro last night is about a 300 mile shift SW and the orientation of that vort energy. That's making all the difference. If the 12z Euro follows 00z time to start hugging. Strongly agree. That will be the time to start looking for a sweet spot for the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good to see the Canadian showing a southern solution but I still say the GFS is the big dog model that we need on our side. That would have been funny to say a couple of years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good to see the Canadian showing a southern solution but I still say the GFS is the big dog model that we need on our side. That would have been funny to say a couple of years back. It's also funny since the GFS was comically wrong on the big NE snowstorm earlier this year. Like, 200 miles off 24h out. One other point I'll make is that, for good or bad, it is just dead wrong to say things like I can't see a model moving 50 miles. I have seen numerous storms that tracked more than 50 miles away from the model runs the day before the storm. You will need to be in the range of the hi-res models before you can nail this down that precisely. I have been in a WSW in the Triad for 6-12 and the rain/snow line ended up in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good to see the Canadian showing a southern solution but I still say the GFS is the big dog model that we need on our side. That would have been funny to say a couple of years back. The GGEM is essentially like the GFS. At this point I am hoping for the rain but that is cutting way back now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, through 48, I don't like the trend on the Canadian -- much more neg. tilt on the upper low up in the midwest -- this is what WeatherNC told us to watch out for. Will tend to make the Ohio Valley surface low dominant. Hopefully, I'm wrong about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From HM in MA thread..sounds bleak for us. "The 00z ECMWF was definitely a southern outlier against the other guidance. Both the GFS/EURO ensembles and 00z to now 12z GFS have the h5 low go from southern IL to off the NC/VA border. This is not a DC miss and it is getting to that point where I want to throw confetti at you guys! lol I want to see the ECMWF at 12z, at the very least, bring the mid level centers north to where the GFS suite and ECMWF ensembles have it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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