beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Boy you compare the 6z to 12z downstream and it sure doesn't seem like this thing can do anything but go farther south. We'll see .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Boy you compare the 6z to 12z downstream and it sure doesn't seem like this thing can do anything but go farther south. We'll see .... I was thinking the same thing. You look at that energy in the NE it doesn't look like it can get out of the way in time really to let that vort keep heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @42 looks further south. Not huge but baby steps is what we need right now. Hard to tell if that will translate downstream but good to see on the NAM before it gets to the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not sure, now that I look at it, that this is "slower" as much as just shifted further west, which is probably a good thing -- the wider the arc, the better, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Man, at 48, the heights out ahead of the storm are a good 100 miles lower (more south) than on the 6z run. That NE vortex is holding in much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For 6z compared to 12z I like looking at 3 hours as opposed to 6 since this is slowed down. You can see the diff here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tagging along on this run Burger, trying to hone my skills. If I understand this at all, the blob of energy to the east either has to move or force the storm southeast, yes? Just looks like the two are at loggerheads at 42 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tagging along on this run Burger, trying to hone my skills. If I understand this at all, the blob of energy to the east either has to move or force the storm southeast, yes? Just looks like the two are at loggerheads at 42 HR. I think we want that energy in the NE to stay there or move further west. This will help stop the eastern movement of the storm keeping it further sw which is what we want....of course it could also phase with it helping keep it north. Ha we need a met to chime in here and help explain exactly what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Definite trend in our direction here -- a good 100-150 miles due west of its 6z position at 57 hours. I don't think this is slower as much as carving out a broader arc -- moving toward UK/EC which had the upper energy around the Missouri bootheel to northern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @57 the sfc low is a good bit south....northern ohio vs southern ohio/north ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @60 it's still not where we want it but is further south. Due to the energy in the NE it should have no choice but to go further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's still not going to get where we want it and time is running short, but at least it's trending the right direction -- felt like we had 8 straight runs of north trends yesterday and the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I see we have a name for this now from the folks @ TWC......Saturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, looked good through about 60 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Definite south shift but sensible weather not really affected in a positive way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, looked good through about 60 hours! I think it still looks good through 72...it's the LR NAM. The thing is, now it's seeing it should be shifting further west and south. Even @72 it's further south and west. It doesn't help us even with the shift but perhaps it's sniffing out a trend. Just keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The MA will be begging for the 12z NAM to verify in the LR. It's showing the potential @81 it's a four contour closed low and it's heading SE. I actually like this run given the south jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 921 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041430- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 921 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OK, just so I don't ask dumb questions when things get more intense.... The storm on that run trended a bit west, or slower in progression, owing to increased resistance by the blocking energy. Then after 66 hours, it looks like it ran out of resistance and began adding more of an eastern track to the storm? And unless there's further slowing, which would lead to a more southwest track, folks in this neck of the woods would remain to the south of the low ... and soggy, rather than snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing that the NAM and Euro had in common through 48 is the ULL had a lot of interaction with energy up in Canada, which the GFS didn't. This causes it to slow down, not sure if that is good or bad but is a difference from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ok, so the NAM pops a low off Norfolk at 72 .... which sits in place at 78, then retrogrades toward E City at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Out to 27 on the GFS no major changes compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If going by last night's run of the Euro being more SW would that put places like Western NC,East Tenn,Ky in the favorable range if it continue's this west/south trend??..Read so many different view's it's becoming confusing...Hope this don't sound like a imby ? but trying to learn as we go..thxs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing I would like to mention is that we now have many runs of different models showing the low stalling and drifting back to the SE at some point. It seemed like a blip at first but the models are very persistent with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can't find much difference between 12z at 36 and 6z at 42. Unfortunately status quo isn't going to hack it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No major changes on the GFS compared to it's 6z run. Out to 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You can already tell through 42hr the GFS isn't going to the Euro, look at the differences with the ULL, the Euro is much more elongated which I assume why it's getting further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At 45 it's dead on top of 6z position at 51 hours. Only difference I notice is a new s/w has popped up on the back end of the flow of the departing eastern trough. Have no idea if that is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmmmm.... @54 it might be a tad west of 6z. Doesn't look to change anything but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At 54, a touch stronger, a whisker further west, but basically the same as 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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