packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The HPC model discussion is funny, they don't know what to believe either.... BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVEBETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z ECMEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOWLOCATED NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHAND WEST OF THE 06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEASTOF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM REMAINS AVIABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z EC MEAN AND 06Z GEFS MEANPOSITION. THE 12Z GFS IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE CORRESPOND 06Z GEFSMEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE 06Z GEFSMEAN POSITION THAN THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. IN ALL...NO MODELSTILL STANDS AS SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCESAT THIS TIME.IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EASTTHAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OFDETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THEHEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAVGEM is in between the Euro and GFS, it has a SLP right over New Bern and than bombs the SLP just a tick south of the NC/VA border and than does drop SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 File in for the Euro, ladies and gentlemen. Model hug until you can't do it anymore! NAVGEM is in between the Euro and GFS, it has a SLP right over New Bern and than bombs the SLP just a tick south of the NC/VA border and than does drop SE. Just going by the track, I'd think that could work for some of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Out to 24 on the euro...no major changes I see outside of the the low was weaker in earlier frames but looks about the same now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I have a sliver of hope that the more digging of the ULL and the strong blocking will force the surface features south on future runs. Is the blocking why the models have the SE drift after the surface low forms off the coast? If so, why doesn't it have the same effect on the ULL as it goes east? Maybe the models will play catch up. There have bee some pretty funky looking features that don't necessarily match what one would think should happen based on earlier hours of the model run. We will see, but we are running out of time and the SE crew is running out of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Out to 36 compared to 00z it looks stronger with a slightly more neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Again @42 energy looks a little stronger and more of a neutral tilt...these next few frames are the important ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing I've noticed is bufkit isnt excited for any location recieving accumulating snow even up to DCA and IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well already a change compared to 00z. 00z at the same time frame as 12z @48 had the low detaching. This hasn't detached yet so we might see this go slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro looks the same as the 0z run to me, give or take, through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Plymouth not updating so it's all you on the PBP -- bring it home! Again @42 energy looks a little stronger and more of a neutral tilt...these next few frames are the important ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @54 it's detached it's further north and stronger. This might be a solution between 12z yesterday and 00z of the Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @54 it's detached it's further north and stronger. This might be a solution between 12z yesterday and 00z of the Euro runs. Yep, its a tick north through 60, bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well not a good move. Looks like the blocking in Canada is a little weaker. @60 our low is going over southern IN. 00z had it around southeastern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing I've noticed is bufkit isnt excited for any location recieving accumulating snow even up to DCA and IAD. Yep that's the next 300 lb gorilla. We are hanging on by a thread just trying to get favorable track. Then you have bl to contend with. Odds ain't looking good atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 500 low right over CLT at 72 hours. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Surface low at 72 near Jacksonville/Kinston/New Bern area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I would say it's about 100 miles north of it's position last night @00z. @78 low looks to be heading towards Elizabeth City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's only north like 25 miles but that's a big difference for places like GSO and INT. ROA still gets hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 500 low right over CLT at 72 hours. Could be worse. Did the surface low still go from Memphis to south of Morehead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 700 mb RH pretty ugly for all of N.C., however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Two big things with this run. It sped up which doesn't allow to really strengthen as it hits the coast. Thus the wrap around for NC isn't really there. There could be some snow showers from about CLT east. The other thing is the little north jog. I'm waiting until 12z Monday but it's looking more and more like those of us in NC may be sitting this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 All I've got is Plymouth, but from Burger's PBP, sounds like a Miller B -- transfers from Ohio Valley across the Apps to extreme SE NC. Did the surface low still go from Memphis to south of Morehead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @84 on the surface it looks like there might be enough wrap around to help RDU out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 VA still the place to be per the latest models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 well so much for the south trends and more digging. looks like we're fighting a losing battle. maybe next year we'll get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The wraparound is actually better for RDU this run, get's 0.4"+ into RDU between hours 78-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Gotta love how @90 it makes a big jump south once it's OTS. Keep an eye on that in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 From what I hear most of western Virginia and C VA does pretty good again. I'm looking at probably something between the GFS and Euro verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Jackpot is Richmond it looks like. The MD folks are not going to be fretting this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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