burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like the NAM early on. A few more of those shifts and we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NAM weakens the block late in its run and gives back any southern gains we made early on. Ridiculous run qpf wise. Just buries the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good stripe of QPF running through western VA on the 60 hr image with 850 line already to our east. This is one thing I like from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol. Gradients are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Everyone need to take a look @ WV. The upper level low near Montana is what we are watching. Look at how wound up this thing is WOW. I could see both models being right this thing is wobbling all over the place and strong also! http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html I agree... There are a lot of novel features happening all at the same time. The Atlantic pattern due to the blocking is really something, and, the Pacific energy attached to the system extends south quite a ways while being pushed up against the very dry air mass/sink that is between it, over the Gulf and Central America, and the similar strong moist energy flow in the Atlantic. It is not a computer-friendly pattern at the moment. The spring patterns might end up being really weird for a month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good stripe of QPF running through western VA on the 60 hr image with 850 line already to our east. This is one thing I like from the NAM. I may need to be north of CHO if the Americans are correct, maybe around Winchester with some elevation. Great run qpf wise, was getting a little worried with 1-1.25" amounts, but that 2"+ strip gives confidence someone's getting 18"+, just need to figure out who. Anywhere from you up 81 to western MD back to about 95, but I do believe the highest amounts will likely be somewhere in western VA, unsure though if it is central or northern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Does anyone have any detailed insight into why ULL will not stall, or why it's moving out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Blacksburg: Made some comparisons with past storms through the cooperative Institute for precipitation systems database. Saw some trends for limited amounts of freezing rain and at least 0.50 inches of precipitation east of the Blue Ridge. Also...the 850 easterly jet that develops by Wednesday morning is a large 5+ Standard deviations above normal. This would result in tremendous upslope in the central and northern Appalachians. For precipitation type BUFKIT sounding support a few hours of sleet...snow or freezing rain in the northern County Warning Area early Tuesday. Tuesday night will be a transition from rain to snow with snow continuing in most locations Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS is a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 By 48 the GFS took a pretty nice jog south...not going to be enough for us but could this be the start of a trend as the data is better sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NWS Greenville now saying 7 inches of snow possible near Beech Mountain. May not have to travel to Virginia after all. Would rather keep my money in NC anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS is a tick south. DT just said it was about 50 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DT: 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MODEL SHIFTS THE LOW SOUTH ..A TAD ... on wed and WED NIGHT ... the Low stays in NE NC and never makes it to the VA NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DT just said it was about 50 miles south Think he was talking about the Euro ensembles being 50 miles further south.......low never making it north of the NC VA border. Not enough to help any of us probably, but a much more substantial event for a chunk of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DT just said it was about 50 miles south No, he said that the 12Z Euro ensembles were about 50 miles south; he didn't comment on the 18Z GFS, which he hates with a passion anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Think he was talking about the Euro ensembles being 50 miles further south.......low never making it north of the NC VA border. Not enough to help any of us probably, but a much more substantial event for a chunk of VA. Actually, you are right, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Also EPS control run looked slightly better than the OP Euro with wrap around. 18z doesn't get it done we just gotta hope somehow this is a trend that shows up on 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The 18Z GFS is definitely further south with the 500 mb low at hour 63, but as of yet, it does not seem to translate into that much of a difference on the surface. It's also stronger on the NAM with 2 (almost 3) closed contours, while the GFS has 1 (almost 2) closed contours. 18Z NAM @ 63: 18Z GFS @ 63: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 18Z GFS has the surface LP east of the Delmarva in 72 hours....with just a hint of a deformation band over northeastern NC albeit light precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually, NE NC could do quite well on this run of the GFS. 850s are below 0 C from hours 66 onward, and they do seem to get the bulk of the wraparound moisture in our state on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS takes the ULL up along the New Jersey coastline. HUGE outlier with that feature. Doesn't the Euro just shunt the ULL eastward off the NC coast as does the other modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 did someone say earlier that the Euro dropped 2-4" in parts of the NC piedmont with the deformation band, or did I wish I read that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 RAH is still speaking of the possibility of accumulating snow north of HWY 64/40 with the deformation band. So not all is lost here. Hope the EURO is closer to reality than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS takes the ULL up along the New Jersey coastline. HUGE outlier with that feature. Doesn't the Euro just shunt the ULL eastward off the NC coast as does the other modeling? I still think the GFS in struggling to adjust to the blocking. Either that or it has some incorrect information on initialization and doesn't think the blocking is as strong as it is. Someone earlier mentioned the energy coming in from the Pacific and how strange it looked. I've seen some maps that put a small LP on the Nevada/Cali/Arizona boarder, could that play into all this as it moves east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 RAH is still speaking of the possibility of accumulating snow north of HWY 64/40 with the deformation band. So not all is lost here. Hope the EURO is closer to reality than the GFS. if you had to bet money would you bet the EURO is right or the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 if you had to bet money would you bet the EURO is right or the GFS? I'll chime in, I go with the Euro as something seems amiss with the GFS with that "ULL going up the NJ coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 if you had to bet money would you bet the EURO is right or the GFS? If you forced me to bet/choose with no other information, I would take the EURO for sure, but that doesn't mean it would be the right choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Cape Cod gets like 2' this run. Boston surpasses a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Cape Cod gets like 2' this run. Boston surpasses a foot. This is why we don't trust storms on March 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Both both Euro and GFS around the 60 hr are farther south. I would hate to make a forecast for the masses right now! Why can't we have gulf low and a large high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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