dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tobin would be full of westerners if the GFS qpf verified after seeing all this prolific qpf totals from the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Will is like santa claus to me today ho ho ho presents for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is a bit NW of 6z. Didn't go east and a bit more generous with QPF on northwest flank. Secondary QPF max west of the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice to see everything coming into a good consensus. Euro moved east at 00z... GFS moved west at 12z. Truth is somewhere inbetween. The trend today as been a track outside of the BM and a later capture/stall east of ACK as opposed to south of MVY. That puts the jackpot zone from CT (which was unlikely from the get go) to E Mass with the 24"+ potential. I like Foxborough to Taunton for the super weenie totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think if you want to see the super high localized jackpots..we're going to want this to stall ESE of the cape..not due east. To prolong the OES enhancement into Saturday afternoon. Otherwise NNW winds may tend to dry things out before Noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like where the GFS stalls, It would be good if it was wrong by 75 miles to far east.................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not to be a weenie, but you have 20-30" in central mass, can you explain how that is supported by the gfs track? it's track is not that far from the euro at all. at 6z SAT they are like 10 miles from each other. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 UKMET. Stall further NE. Good for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NOWCAST TIME-forget models...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tobin would be full of westerners if the GFS qpf verified after seeing all this prolific qpf totals from the other models Yeah 6" in the valley in western mass on the gfs...yikes. I get how it moved west slightly but it barely budged. The EC did move east but that barely budged and has been consistent. I would still go with a 20-28" forecast here, I honestly don't think we get less than 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice to see everything coming into a good consensus. Euro moved east at 00z... GFS moved west at 12z. Truth is somewhere inbetween. The trend today as been a track outside of the BM and a later capture/stall east of ACK as opposed to south of MVY. That puts the jackpot zone from CT (which was unlikely from the get go) to E Mass with the 24"+ potential. I like Foxborough to Taunton for the super weenie totals. We'll have to watch central MA down to E CT like where Ginx is for a death band later on tonight. Where the storm starts to slow down and the MLs go nuts is a pretty prime spot for C MA and down to E CT...the "God's Country" Death band so to speak as many have started to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NOWCAST TIME-forget models...LOL that was the last set of runs I was going to look at, but it still important to determine the stall location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it's track is not that far from the euro at all. at 6z SAT they are like 10 miles from each other. LOL. My bad...so you think the gfs track will be correct but way too low on precip totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We'll have to watch central MA down to E CT like where Ginx is for a death band later on tonight. Where the storm starts to slow down and the MLs go nuts is a pretty prime spot for C MA and down to E CT...the "God's Country" Death band so to speak as many have started to call it. Yeah agreed...11pm-4am tonight will probably be the best 5 hours of my life so far...at least weather wise lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I wonder if the death band that was shown over GC actually ends up from Sprinfield down to Ryan on east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My bad...so you think the gfs track will be correct but way to low on precip totals? i think climo supports those totals in general. the higher numbers i've always felt will be SW of BOS. unscientific but i extended it back to ORH because ORH always pulls high numbers. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From the NYC board: The GFS initialization was 7 mb too high with the pressure and SE of the actual low position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I wonder if the death band that was shown over GC actually ends up from Sprinfield down to Ryan on east? I doubt it's that far west but could be in E CT. We'll see. Funky mesoscale banding can always do weird things. I do think, however, that the stall east of ACK puts the super weenie totals about 100 miles east of here. Could still pop a 2 ft total out with a huge amount of mesoscale luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well right now the low position is northwest* of the models. Whether or not the hard right turn is for real is a nowcast question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tobin would be full of westerners if the GFS qpf verified after seeing all this prolific qpf totals from the other models It's still a foot of snow here, that's not something to complain about! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well it looks like everything is trended towards the Euros track, QPF distribution, 7 h 8 h positions. Not that it's a surprise. Sat and radars look great. It's time for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i think climo supports those totals in general. the higher numbers i've always felt will be SW of BOS. unscientific but i extended it back to ORH because ORH always pulls high numbers. lol. lol, Okay thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I wonder if the death band that was shown over GC actually ends up from Sprinfield down to Ryan on east? Someone is gonig to be sitting under that death band for a solid 4-6 hours or so. The NAM is very impressive with the 700mb VV's looking at plymouth and would suggest an extreme crushing from Boston all the way back through SW CT. Of course just have to see indeed how close to us the 700mb low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 wow a half foot in the valley...good grief lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah agreed...11pm-4am tonight will probably be the best 5 hours of my life so far...at least weather wise lol. Yeah the overnight period is going to be insane. The soundings are ridiculous between 06z-12z...like 200mb of snowgrowth region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice to see everything coming into a good consensus. Euro moved east at 00z... GFS moved west at 12z. Truth is somewhere inbetween. The trend today as been a track outside of the BM and a later capture/stall east of ACK as opposed to south of MVY. That puts the jackpot zone from CT (which was unlikely from the get go) to E Mass with the 24"+ potential. I like Foxborough to Taunton for the super weenie totals. Agree with all of that. It's about the stall too...Euro and NAM are seemingly S/SW of the other guidance that's come out. Progressive pattern, I'm in agreement that it occurs east of ACK or even ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMASShole1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I wonder if the death band that was shown over GC actually ends up from Sprinfield down to Ryan on east? That would be a weenie's dream come true!!!! We always lose out here in valley. I want a jackpot one of these times. The storm looks very juicy, just hope the banding comes to fruition here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 2-hr pressure falls suggest that this baby is moving NNE for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well it looks like everything is trended towards the Euros track, QPF distribution, 7 h 8 h positions. Not that it's a surprise. Sat and radars look great. It's time for this Enjoy, Steve. If the distribution is the same as the EC, the big question is how much is going to be distributed. Looks like it's Ullr's bithday gift to you. Is today you're birthday? If so happy happy. At least the moderate sn and 1/2 here looks pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Box says mid level banding fronto over bos pvd corridor fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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