ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Kudos to those who saw this potential... I was skeptical given the fast h5 flow as depicted earlier this week, but as TT said, the gradient slackens by Fri-Sat. SNE sitting in the sweet spot 84 hours out... We can all read model solutions, but at this point, what are the more likely flags at this point: a more coastal-hugging track, or a more progressive OTS solution? A more progressive solution IMO due to fast northern stream and large high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 North Haven? No...lol...New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif So slutty. Thank you Sir! May I have another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not bad for an ensemble mean! Do you have the spread ?? There's a product that shades the spread, and that gives a clue as to which way things may correct. If the mean is centering a position ...where ever it is centered, but the "shading" is fanning NW, that means there are a few members closer than the mean, than there are member further away. January 2005 had that, where the 96 hour lead had the storm in the mean OTS, but there was spread back to the coast, and we all know what happened in that one! I got boned in Acton while everyone else had a party - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You can view the Ukie on meteocentre.com http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 OT but the rest of the GFS run save for a now brief warmup and cutter is pretty nice. Maybe we're enternig some light after 2 years of darkness.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i think as Will alluded to earlier the biggest concern at this juncture is that the southern stream just manages to escape too far east. the other option on the table would be the northern stream really digging like crazy and yanking this in, but i think the overall look doesn't favor that right now. if i were watching for a miss it would be that the timing just doesn't quite work and we have something that escapes east from hatteras and bombs south of Nova Scotia instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can we agree to have one person do the play by play on the Euro? so it does not get crazy with east.. west.. rain.. snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i think as Will alluded to earlier the biggest concern at this juncture is that the southern stream just manages to escape too far east. the other option on the table would be the northern stream really digging like crazy and yanking this in, but i think the overall look doesn't favor that right now. if i were watching for a miss it would be that the timing just doesn't quite work and we have something that escapes east from hatteras and bombs south of Nova Scotia instead. not saying it's going to miss east - just saying that is what, i think, would be the cause if this fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 were really only 72 hours out from this until flakes start to fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can we agree to have one person do the play by play on the Euro? so it does not get crazy with east.. west.. rain.. snow Probably a pipe dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can we agree to have one person do the play by play on the Euro? so it does not get crazy with east.. west.. rain.. snow , I don't think that is much of a worry, There are not a lot with early access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 not saying it's going to miss east - just saying that is what, i think, would be the cause if this fails. The presumption is failure but success is growing exponentially this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 i think as Will alluded to earlier the biggest concern at this juncture is that the southern stream just manages to escape too far east. the other option on the table would be the northern stream really digging like crazy and yanking this in, but i think the overall look doesn't favor that right now. if i were watching for a miss it would be that the timing just doesn't quite work and we have something that escapes east from hatteras and bombs south of Nova Scotia instead. Northern stream is motoring along so that chance of it really digging wanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 not saying it's going to miss east - just saying that is what, i think, would be the cause if this fails. Yeah the GFS and euro really perform magic with this. It;s a fine line and the stakes are high...I really would encourage people to hold off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hard to tell on those 12 hr panels, but looks like the ggem is pretty decent on the big picture stuff...maybe just a shade S of the BM? hard to extrapolate those positions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's interesting ... could also be a chicken/egg thing ... I mean, the GFS may not have had as much lead ridging over the Atl, because it was not seeing/detecting the southern stream presence, yesterday. Now that it is, it rolls a bit more out ahead and there we go - Fascinating. Yes and this is a good point... you can actually see the GFS underforecasting the influence of the southern stream s/w using a drop/dt sense. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html note that the s/w feature in question for this particular system didn't even exist until around 48 hours out on the GFS, located at 30N 130W. You can see its importance as you move forward in time... providing a weak but broad region of vorticity that initiates convection across the southeast (blue contours are upward vertical velocity). http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/500vort/500vort_namer_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NOGAPS is a huge hit but warm....rains in ALL of MA and southward. But it's a huge qpf bomb and a bit slower vs other guidance. This system is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah the GFS and euro really perform magic with this. It;s a fine line and the stakes are high...I really would encourage people to hold off. I think that is right. I would like to see more than 6 inches though, for the first time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hard to tell on those 12 hr panels, but looks like the ggem is pretty decent on the big picture stuff...maybe just a shade S of the BM? hard to extrapolate those positions though. Ewall maps show snow to taint back to snow. Overall a reasonably nice hit. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Guess we can start numbers at a foot and adjust up as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Probably a pipe dream... worth a try.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 WBZ https://twitter.com/TerryWBZ/status/298840996362457089/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Guess we can start numbers at a foot and adjust up as we get closer Being cautious and going conservative I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Being cautious and going conservative I see.All we need to see is Euro to confirm its regionwide 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 WBZhttps://twitter.com/TerryWBZ/status/298840996362457089/photo/1 Love that map, best potential all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 All we need to see is Euro to confirm its regionwide 1-2 feet There's a reason you won WOTY last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 All we need to see is Euro to confirm its regionwide 1-2 feet i don't think we are quite there yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 CBS Boston in the race for media hype just sent a text message saying "Chance for major storm friday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You guys can have the CCB...someone cook me up a deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.