sauss06 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You guys might have a shot with this, particularly I-80 south. Warm advection snows with these type of systems typically extend pretty far away from the center, and there's no huge confluence zone to keep it dry. A possible analog that stands out to me is 12/5/02 or even 2/7/03. This also seems like one that will keep trending north-so you guys should watch it IMO. Both of those dates gave us good snow. 6.5" and then 5". edit- Sorry, i see djr posted the numbers already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREF Looks alright for South Central PA. Let's keep the trends going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12/5/02 ftw...loved that storm, and still a favorite. Ctp upgraded 3/4 through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 btw jm, how much did you get Friday? I heard southern Long Island was having a lot of trouble until the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not gonna lie, I am enjoying the break in the weather a bit today. We torched pretty nice down here. Car thermometer was about 60ºF in Altoona when I was down there a bit ago. Still 49ºF here with snowcover but wind is really kicking up so would imagine some more warmth gets mixed in before the colder air starts moving in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the southern counties will get into first watch/warning of the season. A 5-7" event looks like a good chance. 0Z will be big in regaurds to what goes up. I think watches by tomorrow afternoon if all stays on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not gonna lie, I am enjoying the break in the weather a bit today. We torched pretty nice down here. Car thermometer was about 60ºF in Altoona when I was down there a bit ago. Still 49ºF here with snowcover but wind is really kicking up so would imagine some more warmth gets mixed in before the colder air starts moving in later. Me too. I got to get out to walk to a meeting. Interesting 1 pm disco from CTP about this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z NAM holds serve; when's the last time the NAM's had two-three consecutive runs where you could say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Oh, off topic. I'll be stuck in State College on a Monday and Tuesday night in mid June with no vehicle and staying at the Penn Stater. Would anyone be interested in getting together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 btw jm, how much did you get Friday? I heard southern Long Island was having a lot of trouble until the night. About a foot. The sleet hung on for a long time, but from 8pm-4am we really got slammed. The sleet got incredibly annoying when 30 miles away was getting 3-4"/hour already, but I'm definitely not complaining about 12" after doing my time up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lucky lol...we got essentially nada on campus. Had one band that made it snow moderate for 30 minutes and got a coating promptly melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS is a straight up smack down for SC and SE this run. 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ohhh buddy look out lsv brethren..u may get smoked wed. night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lucky lol...we got essentially nada on campus. Had one band that made it snow moderate for 30 minutes and got a coating promptly melted. I know-people here are so spoiled now. I even had to tell people I usually get along with on my subforum to take a break for a while, lol. If central PA's luck was translated east to the area from NYC through New England the forum would have to be shut down. BTW, very nice GFS run for you guys. Could be a good number of 6" amounts if that verified verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS is a straight up smack down for SC and SE this run. 6"+ I like the sound of it, but am a skeptic of the "off" hour runs. Good for amusement purposes and confirmation of trends, but were i a forecaster, I'd take with a larger grain of salt (in addition to each of the inherant biases that each model has), than the 0z and 12z runs, as the data is not all new. I have watched sprited debates and have seen the verification scores in other forums, but remain cautious. I hope one day they prove me wrong and trends surely have been good over the last 24 hours. I look forward to the 0z runs tonight, but hope I can stay up till 2;15 two nights in a row.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I like the sound of it, but am a skeptic of the "off" hour runs. Good for amusement purposes and confirmation of trends, but were i a forecaster, I'd take with a larger grain of salt (in addition to each of the inherant biases that each model has), than the 0z and 12z runs, as the data is not all new. I have watched sprited debates and have seen the verification scores in other forums, but remain cautious. I hope one day they prove me wrong and trends surely have been good over the last 24 hours. I look forward to the 0z runs tonight, but hope I can stay up till 2;15 two nights in a row.... Nut All storm info for Wed night should be out by 12 ish. Euro at this range 54hrs and in is not worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 No real confluence=this storm easily producing good precip up to MDT and LNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z Clown Map....solid 6" hit for all of us lsv'ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 No real confluence=this storm easily producing good precip up to MDT and LNS. We're each in easy moderate amounts this run, still, dude. Still more time to bring us into the .50" boundary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yea man I like the looks of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That 18z GFS is about what I'm thinking placement will be with the precip with this storm, enough coverage that most of us will see reasonable snowfall but best snows generally south of I-80. Still some time for a bit of a northward bump in things or for precip amounts to increase.. and either are easily in the realm of possibility with these southern stream type systems. I'd be more bullish on a farther north axis of precip but I'll stick with the rather tight consensus between the GFS/NAM/GGEM today while waiting for the Euro to hopefully get on the other models level and not the other way around. What a fail for the Euro if its insistence on a sheared and further south storm doesn't pan out. It already came back a good way today, I'm sure the DC gang isn't complaining about the Euro solution. HPC went with a GFS/UKMET/Euro blend for their QPF this afternoon with regards to the system once to the Mid-Atl/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like the sound of it, but am a skeptic of the "off" hour runs. Good for amusement purposes and confirmation of trends, but were i a forecaster, I'd take with a larger grain of salt (in addition to each of the inherant biases that each model has), than the 0z and 12z runs, as the data is not all new. I have watched sprited debates and have seen the verification scores in other forums, but remain cautious. I hope one day they prove me wrong and trends surely have been good over the last 24 hours. I look forward to the 0z runs tonight, but hope I can stay up till 2;15 two nights in a row.... Nut One thing to keep in mind here....an NCEP met here and some other mets have pointed out that the idea that off-hour models aren't as good anymore isn't true and they have the same amount of data put into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mag do we have a shot at 1 to 3? Would love to have snow for nephews just bought 2 brand new sleds...and for them thats perfect depth for going back up the hill haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not sure if you guys saw this....but funny and poignant if this surprise super snow happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not sure if you guys saw this....but funny and poignant if this surprise super snow happens. forgot the eggs..... then you can make french toast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Fwiw Nam at 0z decides to visit nations capital...gives advisory snows to southern tier of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO TREND TWD HIGHER QPF AS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTION ATTM...AND COMPARABLE WITH SEVERAL OF THE 03Z SREF/ 00Z GEFS PLUMES. THE NAM/S 24-HOUR QPF /FROM ITS APPARENT MILLER B TYPE STORM/ IS AROUND 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN...ABOUT 0.50 NEAR I-80...AND OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ REGION. THIS MAGNITUDE OF AN EVENT WOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...WITH POSSIBLY BORDERLINE WINTER STORM WARNING AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...CONSIDERING MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE VA COAST...AND INTERACTION OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES...ITS PRUDENT TO RAMP UP THE SNOW PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS GRADUALLY...AND HEIGHTEN AWARENESS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /PHLHWOCTP/. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Got a laugh out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not sure if you guys saw this....but funny and poignant if this surprise super snow happens. I <3 Club Soda Kenny edit: I should edit this to be more clear. I saw this video the other day from Club Soda Kenny. I believe the guy is actually Vic DiBietto... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Fwiw Nam at 0z decides to visit nations capital...gives advisory snows to southern tier of PA. Yeah sharp cutoff just south of our area. GFS isn't too great either here, still something measurable I guess. Harrisburg and the LSV in general are looking pretty good though with over .25" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 So UNV went from 18z: NAM: 2-4" GFS: 3-6" 00z: NAM: T GFS: 1-3" F**k this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.