CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Actually the 6z,12z and 18z GFS Models all had some sort of coastal runner around next weekend. I know it most likely won't happen but it made me chuckle. Banter in NY forum says latest Euro coming around to GFS idea for VD storm. More importantly, several mets are agreeing that the following storm (PD III) has "triple phaser" potential....ie 3/13/93....lookout! Latest NWS forecast for norther suffolk county on LI now says storm totals of 18 to 36 inches expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Banter in NY forum says latest Euro coming around to GFS idea for VD storm. More importantly, several mets are agreeing that the following storm (PD III) has "triple phaser" potential....ie 3/13/93....lookout! Latest NWS forecast for norther suffolk county on LI now says storm totals of 18 to 36 inches expected! It's our turn to set an all time snow storm record. Who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Everyone needs to take a look at the 0Z GFS tonight. V-day looking promising If you're south of I80 or near NYC. If you're near UNV-IPT, more shafting for you. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hahaha prbly...I dont even care at this point. I did get 6.0 inches of snow/sleet earlier this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 lol and the sickest part is in the new england thread some are saying its the most since 2011....lol. 2 like that in 2 years haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 5.1 inches in wb Wind is blowing snow across roads. But the roads are in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hahaha prbly...I dont even care at this point. I did get 6.0 inches of snow/sleet earlier this year though. Yes, you do care...it's obvious to all of us. Lot's of potential out there. Elliott Abrams always kept my excitement in check as a kid by saying "you can't shovel potential." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Everyone needs to take a look at the 0Z GFS tonight. V-day looking promising and at like 192 hours woah!!!! Could be a nice stretch for us coming here. VD storm would help our southern people get some snow. But the one at 192 Wow!!! All next week doesn't look to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Totaled .10 yesterday. Disappointing but not unexpected. The GFS was so horrible with this storm I can't remotely trust anything it shows. Ditto on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Reading thru the New England posts is pretty incredible! Brings back fond memories of some of our monster snowfalls. Historically, this is a great time period for Central PA, so it's nice to see the pattern showing some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ofcourse we all care we are on a weather forum..I just mean no reason to get upset anymore, just expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I have been through Superstorm 93 (24") and January 96 (24") in Harrisburg and PD2 in Lancaster (25"). Riding this one out here in CT (stuck in hotel) and I must say this is the "worst" snowstorm I have been through. Easily 25 to 30 inches. Snowfall rates of up to 4"/hr and 50 mph wind gusts. The only thing I did not witness was thunder snow. Not getting back to Lancaster anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Totaled .10 yesterday. Disappointing but not unexpected. The GFS was so horrible with this storm I can't remotely trust anything it shows. Ditto on the NAM. The models sure was a disappointment,24 hours out and they wasn't in very good agreement. What do you think was giving them a difficult time figuring this storm out? I have been through Superstorm 93 (24") and January 96 (24") in Harrisburg and PD2 in Lancaster (25"). Riding this one out here in CT (stuck in hotel) and I must say this is the "worst" snowstorm I have been through. Easily 25 to 30 inches. Snowfall rates of up to 4"/hr and 50 mph wind gusts. The only thing I did not witness was thunder snow. Not getting back to Lancaster anytime soon. Unreal...thanks for the update!! Nice Pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hahaha prbly...I dont even care at this point. I did get 6.0 inches of snow/sleet earlier this year though. This really is not a bad winter. Here's the facts, and facts trump anything you can say, making your opinion irrelevant. You've had an 8 inch event, a 5 inch event, and a 4 inch event. You are at 25 for the year. Your normal is 34.7. You are currently above normal for snow. You can go below normal the rest of the year and still have a normal snowfall year. And the thing is, during the storms that got you there all you did during those was b**ch and moan about back edges, etc. If you lived in New England you would complain leading up to the storm. I think for your own good you really need to find another hobby. You have an interest in something that will never make you happy. It's really strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ofcourse we all care we are on a weather forum..I just mean no reason to get upset anymore, just expect it. You had a storm in December that people in DC would give their genitalia for, and all you did the entire time was whine and embarrass yourself. Seriously....after that, you didn't look at what you post and start thinking, wow, I made an ass of myself and I need to maybe change? You don't have an argument here, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Anyway, there's a whiner thread, my idea to try to find middle ground here so those who want to freak out have a place to do so and we can talk about storm threats without people complaining that the weather hates them. Back to real weather talk, this is a pretty remarkable public info statement: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 You had a storm in December that people in DC would give their genitalia for, and all you did the entire time was whine and embarrass yourself. Seriously....after that, you didn't look at what you post and start thinking, wow, I made an ass of myself and I need to maybe change? You don't have an argument here, man. That, and when he gets called out says he's going to take time off and stop posting, only to be back at it no later than the next day. Wide range of solutions for the next 10 days. We could get smoked twice or miss 'em both. At least we'll have opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Anyway, there's a whiner thread, my idea to try to find middle ground here so those who want to freak out have a place to do so and we can talk about storm threats without people complaining that the weather hates them. Back to real weather talk, this is a pretty remarkable public info statement: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=public Often lost to us during storms like this is the impacts along the immediate coast. I don't know how Long Island fared, but they still have a long way to go from Sandy's aftermath. Sobering to see so much wind/water damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 That, and when he gets called out says he's going to take time off and stop posting, only to be back at it no later than the next day. Wide range of solutions for the next 10 days. We could get smoked twice or miss 'em both. At least we'll have opportunities. Yes, based on evidence such as what the pros are saying and not based on how the weather is a big meanie to everyone, the rest of the month has some good signs. That's what they are, opportunities. And every storm is different, something else for everyone here to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 lol dude I had 5.8 inches and I didnt embarrass myself it rained the rest of the precip that filled in. I am fine with this winter we should get to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Often lost to us during storms like this is the impacts along the immediate coast. I don't know how Long Island fared, but they still have a long way to go from Sandy's aftermath. Sobering to see so much wind/water damage. I hope they got through it okay, I haven't heard anything about that part of it. I recommend to all of you, heading down to the ocean to watch a nor'easter from there is a cool experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 lol dude I had 5.8 inches and I didnt embarrass myself it rained the rest of the precip that filled in. I am fine with this winter we should get to average. No, the snow reports around there were around 8. And as for embarrassing yourself, dude, you sure were pretty funny in that one storm when you posted "back edge is approaching oh well" and the radar kept pumping out the snow for you. THREE TIMES. I'd probably not try to argue here on whether you embarrassed yourself. I am sure a lot here lol'd at that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 All I could think of when I saw Revere - "The blizzard is coming! The blizzard is coming! One foot if by land, two feet if by sea!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 All I could think of when I saw Revere - "The blizzard is coming! The blizzard is coming! One foot if by land, two feet if by sea!" Ha, nice. Don Sutherland posted a while ago about some crazy 1770s blizzard in Boston that sounded even crazier than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ha, nice. Don Sutherland posted a while ago about some crazy 1770s blizzard in Boston that sounded even crazier than this one. Thanks, it's just something I came up with on a whim last night while at work, one of the TVs had TWC on, reporting from a place called "Revere Beach" in Mass 99hr 12z GFS and 105hr 6z GFS are like an exact match. No, really. The low is in like the exact same position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 lol dude I had 5.8 inches and I didnt embarrass myself it rained the rest of the precip that filled in. I am fine with this winter we should get to average. The fact that you "lol" in about 3/4 of your posts is telling (to me) just how much you DO care. Look...I think the main issue is you so often say one thing but turn around and then say or do just the opposite. Think before you post and when you do post, use some thought and rationale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Similar LP placement but precip further north on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 All in all not bad of a run...similar low track (maybe a bit further southwest) but more precip reaches up the area - .25-.50 regionwide with over .50 reaching into south-central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Well the long range HPC guidance would suggest that we have more "opportunities" for some stormy weather. Hopefully on the snowier side for all of us. But time will tell: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013VALID 12Z TUE FEB 12 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 16 2013...THE ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD VALID DAYS 4-7 WED-SAT SHOULD PROVE TO BEQUITE ACTIVE WITHIN A LARGE SCALE CONUS MEAN MID-UPPER LEVELTROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC RIDGE. RIDGEAMPLITUDE SEEMS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM DEEP STORM DEVELOPMENTTOWARD ALASKA COMMON IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVORCOLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE INTERIORWEST...SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY LATE WEEK. TWOPRIMARY SYSTEMS OF INTEREST INCLUDE A WAVE TRACKING NEWD FROM THEGULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL LOW ANDLATER AS NRN PAC ENERGY DIGS/AMPLIFIES DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL USLEADING TO A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ERN US STORM BY NEXT WEEKEND. HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVEBEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM AN EVEN COMPROMISE BLEND OF THE 00 UTCGFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TUE/WED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE 06UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY NEXT FRI/SAT.WITH THE GULF TO ATLC SFC LOW DURING THE WED-THU TIMEFRAME...RECENT ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST A LOW TRACK BETWEENRECENT GFS AND MORE OFFSHORE ECMWF RUNS WITH THE LEADING EASTCOAST LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS RUNS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ONTHE NWRN SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD THOUGH NOT TO THE POINTOF BEING OUTLIERS RELATIVE TO INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLOW CONTAINING THE SUPPORTINGENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... AND POSITIVETILT OF THE ESTABLISHED LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN...SEEM TO FAVORAN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUSAROUND WED-THU...THIS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER COMPLEX SYSTEM.TO SIMPLIFY AMID UNCERTAINTY YET STILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTTHREAT...THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS A COMPROMISEMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US BETWEEN00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE LESS NEGATIVE TILTOF THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITHENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE POSITION.SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I like our up coming chances next week! We had some serious wind last night and this am. 1 missing wheeled trash can if any of you find it in Carlisle , Harrisburg or state college! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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