Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 715
  • Created
  • Last Reply

RGEM and Euro pretty much kept that offshore all along I think.  Meso models FTL. 

 

This is more of an actual coastal it seems per this NAM run.

 

1.25" now, only about 1/4 of snow the last 30 minutes.

Yeah...I'll wait until verification before crowning a model, but it's looking like congrats Euro despite all of the bashes it took.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I fold...

 

HRRR and RAP don't even bring the PA/NJ stuff into SNE as they did a few cycles ago, and inverted trough barely scrapes SNE.

 

for review:

Euro nailed this.

Meso models were on crack.

RAP was "wonky" as Box described it, but eventually settled on the right solution within < 6 hrs (assuming onset of best stuff would have been later tnite)

HRRRDev1 > Primary, was a little excessive at first but then honed in on correct solution within < 6 hrs (assuming onset of best stuff would have been later tnite)

MM5... may have been correct at 12z today, maybe 1-2" too high. Whatever, I think it's pedal-operated it's so f'n slow.

EDIT: And of course... SREFs were probably the worst of the short-range models.

 

NWS changes map by 11pm...

 

Tis the winter of our discontent (as Messenger had in his sig).

Erring conservative generally wins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The gulf stream has failed us

 

NCEP models failed you. SREFs (if this plays out like the HRRR/RAP and new NAM) are having a horrific period.

 

I don't think the R/GGEM/Euro were ever on board.

 

I need this stuff over LI sound to make it up here or I'm in trouble too. 

 

The SE coast should do fine as now instead of a trough type deal it's more of a coastal.  But it's going to be tight.  Feast or famine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of the srefs are pretty sweet for SE NH/ME

for BOS ... SREFs were 3-15" at 15z then 0-2" at 21z lol.

 

There have been flags for BOS all along being in between the two bands, oh well. Hope the next one works out and maybe we pull out 2" of light stuff overnight.

 

Nice wintry scene out there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trying to get the title back from its epic 12hr fail the other night. This never looked good for BOS anyways so I don't care what models showed. Whenever you are in the 7-10 split, it sux. I said this even yesterday.

agree with you on the bust-but whenever the Euro doesnt have something, there's always cause for concern IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's gonna be too light I think on the south coast.

 

Echoes are vanishing up over me, this is really light snow having a hard time really accumulating here.   It's going to be close Scott, if that stuff to my SW doesn't make a better push this time I may be about to wrap it up here.  The last batch never made it.  Maybe the Cape does better but the coating to 2 or 3 seems pretty good here right now.

 

Other tell on this one was the JMA.  If that model gives you less than .25" that's not a terrific sign.  :)  Let's wait for verification time, but the NAM seems to have the idea down on where this precip actually is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...