Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see normal to slightly above normal anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month. So basically you are cancelling MA winter in mid feb and we get rained on a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Matt Lanza seems to have cancelled winter. He's pretty good from anecdotal following of his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Matt Lanza seems to have cancelled winter. He's pretty good from anecdotal following of his thoughts. Is he as good as judas Cohen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Matt Lanza seems to have cancelled winter. He's pretty good from anecdotal following of his thoughts. Is he as good as judas Cohen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Is he as good as judas Cohen ? Hopefully if you like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 So basically you are cancelling MA winter in mid feb and we get rained on a lot? Don't make me post it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 This is all snow next weekend....kinda looks familiar but I just can't place it...hmmm.... allsnow.JPG Ill take that configuration over the models giving us 0.80 and delivering 0.05 like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Ill take that configuration over the models giving us 0.80 and delivering 0.05 like last week. This is one where the weenie radar will be fun to watch but out the window won't...better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 This is one where the weenie radar will be fun to watch but out the window won't...better than nothing Really? How do you know that? That's the best it's looked. Who's to say it won't trend even better? With a low, even though it's weak, to our south, southwesterly flow upstairs, I can't see the mountains robbing this one as bad. I know it's become fashionable to be as negative as possible here lately, but we could at least give it a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 someone start up a new thread for feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 So basically you are cancelling MA winter in mid feb and we get rained on a lot? If you call near normal conditions cancelling winter .....IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 So basically you are cancelling MA winter in mid feb and we get rained on a lot? Well we know who the winners are. So I think that was an MA winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 If you call near normal conditions cancelling winter .....IDKI was just picking up flipping back to a -pna and losing hl blocking. Even with normal temps we'll roast in front of storms tracking to our west and enjoy cool dry nw winds behind the cold front. I'd be interested in your thoughts irt the nao. If we get a fat west based -nao it can overcome a -pna to some extent. A neg nao has been nonexistent door to door so far.luckily it hasn't gone way positive so that's a good thing but it hasn't given us an ounce of help either. We've rehashed snow chances during a -pna regime in detail earlier this year. Wes has some great stats but the short version is a -pna is very bad for ma snow. The conditions you are describing for the second half of Feb won't be normal this far south. We'll be warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 If you call near normal conditions cancelling winter .....IDK our "Normal" is not snowy, we need a colder then normal pattern to really have much of a chance especially once into the second half of February. Our normal highs are in the upper 40's by then, that is not really going to cut it. So yes, if we have had no real snowstorm and you are calling for "Normal" conditions from then out...that is a winter cancel for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 our "Normal" is not snowy, we need a colder then normal pattern to really have much of a chance especially once into the second half of February. Our normal highs are in the upper 40's by then, that is not really going to cut it. So yes, if we have had no real snowstorm and you are calling for "Normal" conditions from then out...that is a winter cancel for this area. For BWI the norm snowfall is 8" in Feb and 1.9" for March. So if you get more than 2 inches for March technically that is a normal winter by meteorological standards. By weenie standards....which is unobtainable because we all desire an 80 inch blizzard....yes it's an end to winter I guess lol. Meteorologically for the region if we get 6 inches in March we are knocking one out of the park and should be excited! I really think it depends on the PDO. If it swings positive above .5 in Feb. I think March will be killer...if not...its a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 For BWI the norm snowfall is 8" in Feb and 1.9" for March. So if you get more than 2 inches for March technically that is a normal winter by meteorological standards. By weenie standards....which is unobtainable because we all desire an 80 inch blizzard....yes it's an end to winter I guess lol. Meteorologically for the region if we get 6 inches in March we are knocking one out of the park and should be excited! I really think it depends on the PDO. If it swings positive above .5 in Feb. I think March will be killer...if not...its a dud. Yes but those averages are just a function of a bunch of extreme events being thrown together and smoothed out. It's not like we get around 8 inches of snow every Feb. That 8 average is more a function of taking the Febs where its not cold and BWI ends up with an inch or nothing and the ones where we get a -NAO and get 12" plus and averaging them together. Our snow here tends to come in bunches when we get a good pattern then we go through long periods of snow drought. We really do need a good pattern to have a shot here, we do not luck our way to many snowstorms down here like New England can. When we have had no significant snows in 2 years and there is nothing likely the first 10 days of Feb, and then you call for "normal" temperatures with a -PNA the rest of Feb and likely +AO...well you don't have to say it but we all know what that likely means for us. That is NOT the right setup to get snow here and more of what we have had the last 2 years running now since our last real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yes but those averages are just a function of a bunch of extreme events being thrown together and smoothed out. It's not like we get around 8 inches of snow every Feb. That 8 average is more a function of taking the Febs where its not cold and BWI ends up with an inch or nothing and the ones where we get a -NAO and get 12" plus and averaging them together. Our snow here tends to come in bunches when we get a good pattern then we go through long periods of snow drought. We really do need a good pattern to have a shot here, we do not luck our way to many snowstorms down here like New England can. When we have had no significant snows in 2 years and there is nothing likely the first 10 days of Feb, and then you call for "normal" temperatures with a -PNA the rest of Feb and likely +AO...well you don't have to say it but we all know what that likely means for us. That is NOT the right setup to get snow here and more of what we have had the last 2 years running now since our last real snow. I'd like to know the median (not average) snowfall for each month for IAD/DCA/BWI. Anybody know where I might be able to find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'd like to know the median (not average) snowfall for each month for IAD/DCA/BWI. Anybody know where I might be able to find that? monthly medians are low...it makes more sense to look at seasonal medians to get an idea of expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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