Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Way wide right. Maybe some weenie snow for ACK. It only shifted about 600 miles north with the qpf at 60 hours...barely noticeable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That's def a possibility...at least for a time on the Cape. But the storm itself seems almost impossible to get NW with this arctic front blitzing in from the northwest. What the hell is he thinking? I do notice he ends every tweet with #skitheeast. I wonder if he might have been asked to or is simply trying to hype up a resort or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Literally the 72hr euro from this am had a dying wave with precip east of Delaware south of Nova Scotia. This run it throws some weenie flakes on NS. Likewise 12 hours ago the nearest flakes to cape cod were east of Delaware, now they're on the cape. It's got a ways to go, but that's as large a shift I can remember seeing. We will know with the 6z I think. We need a stronger s/w out of Canada. Dig, allow the s/w from the south to gain more north and there's a chance. Kelly could be forecasting too on experience... imagine don kent and those guys once did such things I don't use twitter, I wouldn't be too worried about what he says on twitter I'm thinking necns older demo isn't busy tweeting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It only shifted about 600 miles north with the qpf at 60 hours...barely noticeable at all. And it still whiffs by a lot....call me skeptical. Maybe some weenie stuff for Phil to ACK...but there's a huge arctic front to the northwest which will not let this get very far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I wonder if he might have been asked to or is simply trying to hype up a resort or something. Then why wouldn't Tim Kelley just hype up the 1/22 storm, as Will suggested? He doesn't give much explanation either... just "blizzard!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 And it still whiffs by a lot....call me skeptical. Maybe some weenie stuff for Phil to ACK...but there's a huge arctic front to the northwest which will not let this get very far NW. Every model shifted hundreds of miles north. My sense is its foolish to assume that means anything more than some feature was muffed in the earlier runs. The models may be nailing it right now on this run. Unusual but it doesn't mean the next run will come north. Ie I don't buy the "it came north this run it'll do it next run" thinking we see a lot. But they typically dampen these southern systems too fast. That still doesn't solve the problem of the brick wall west of the immediate coast. I can't see the levels I'm on the phone but my guess is the non ncep guidance isn't as aggressive with the s/w from Alaska. I don't care enough to go see if they messed up at init or not we will know in 2-3 hours with the 6z. That said if the 6z backs off it was probably a bad read on the s/w up north, if they come in more aggressive I'm on the bus for my area. What I do find interesting is a slight strengthening of the energy out of Mexico bumped things around pretty good. Normally I'd bet the farm that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Individual gefs members wouldn't give me any confidence in the mean. About. 4 are a good to decent hit ( 1 is big), a bunch are tiny scrapes some are like the 12z suite. 1/3 each. I don't this the rap looks very impressive but it does have the spoke rocketing down from Alaska late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 6z NAM thru 42h northern stream digging less than at 0z... no catch, this will be a whiffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 6z NAM thru 42h northern stream digging less than at 0z... no catch, this will be a whiffer Came pretty far NW wrt QPF. Now measurable makes it up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would say the 6z NAM came a little more north and there is more digging of the northern stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If this one finds a way to work out... long shot, it'll be the "Saki bomb" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes, outcome is a much closer storm by 54h. Commahead grazes southeast Mass. Difference is southern s/w hangs back and ejects a little slower 6z vs. 0z... gives more time for interaction with northern stream, and we get a closer storm... As has been said, I don't think we get a good idea of this until current storm clears out and we get better data from energy diving from Alaska up north and from Mexico down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Flurries in Brookline (Jerry's hood). And just for the record... ah never mind. Enjoy an awesome snowstorm everyone!! Incoming Sake Bomb: If this one finds a way to work out... long shot, it'll be the "Saki bomb" storm. And the 2nd Sake bomb of the year... see quote above, from 12/29/12 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe a Cape brush but bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This might work out for me.....have the snow here today. I'm driving to MD on Thursday evening so may catch snow down there and return for the chilly weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like Phil gets a couple inches on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 My god the SREFs just keep getting more bullish. They want to pull off a legit snowstorm for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Time to bring this baby west, at the very least looks like an IVT signal between the offshore system and the one over the lakes, lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's possible 1-3 inches can get back to 1-91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's possible 1-3 inches can get back to 1-91. All I had to do was post the SREF for you to hype it up on twitter. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Heh, 1 run away from full blown wood. If this one pans out I need to send ginxy a fruitcake. I expect the southern s/w to come in stronger and stronger. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's possible 1-3 inches can get back to 1-91. 12z should tell us the full story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Heh, 1 run away from full blown wood. If this one pans out I need to send ginxy a fruitcake. I expect the southern s/w to come in stronger and stronger. It's coming. These are the kinds of storms you used to nail. We miss those kinds of posts. Keep them coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This system is beginning to look good for my area as well. I'll be watching with interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would not get to excited about this until 12z comes out to see if it trends in a certain direction but its hard not to be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We're really going to have to watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Agreed. I may go from dim sun cirrus to no sun cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at 5h it just looks hard to see it getting too far nw. Maybe it could trend into a legitimate storm se areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 These are the kinds of storms you used to nail. We miss those kinds of posts. Keep them coming! This is the first one in many years that really got my interest. Fingers crossed, we need to see the energy stronger in the southern stream and a bit better digging in the north. I actually liked the northern stream less at 6z. Hopefully flags go up in an hour or two. I do see why Tim was all jazzed up over this, ballsy, this is something Copeland and kent would have talked about watching. Few more hours lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at 5h it just looks hard to see it getting too far nw. Maybe it could trend into a legitimate storm se areas? Yeah I agree going to be tough for most of us but I think Phil/cweat may have some fun. This is the first one in many years that really got my interest. Fingers crossed, we need to see the energy stronger in the southern stream and a bit better digging in the north. I actually liked the northern stream less at 6z. Hopefully flags go up in an hour or two. I do see why Tim was all jazzed up over this, ballsy, this is something Copeland and kent would have talked about watching. Few more hours lets see. Yup... I think it could turn into a decent storm for the Cape but it's going to have a pretty sharp edge. I would prefer to see some super-amped ensemble members but there's not much. Watch the GEFS/SREFs going forward. The trend wil be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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