Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Probably should keep the GFS this time because it shows snow GFS in this instance - I'd take it over the NAM because the NAM has real issues with placement of s/w features like these outside of 18-24 hours. The NAM is going to verify pretty poorly in relative terms even at 18z. GFS/Euro are much less prone to wild swings. I expect the Euro will show a similar outcome to the GFS and that there will be GEFS members amped. Just getting back now, need to get some stuff done and then will play around and see how things are going. DOES ANYONE have a good water vapor loop that isn't java based like UCAR? Removed java because of the security issues. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Canadian is a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why was this thread ever pinned? The analysis throughout is pretty skin deep with a lot of matter-of-fact rip and reads with model cycles and so forth. There are inaccuracies throughout that are pretty egregious as well... For one, "bomb"? No, bomb is an AMS recognized term that means any cyclogenesis where deepening rate meet or exceeds 24 mb in 24 hours. This system never was characterized that way in the runs, nor were there any governing parameters that suggested it needed to be corrected that way. Yes, if the northern stream were to get more involved, it would assist, but even when it does, up around NS or thereabouts it does not go through any such rapidity in strengthening. A lot of imagination going on here. I know some may read this and get petty and hopeful that something will materialize of this so they can be childish and "see", but you'd be right for the wrong reasons - ie, dumb lucky. The overall construct of the atmosphere would have to be whole-scale altered to bring the hopes and dreams of the fan faithful to reality here. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Bigtime respect to those few here and on air who actually led the models on this one: sniffed this potential out, even when no models showed anything. Far from a lock, but there's a legitimate potential for a bigger EMA hit when most here completely dismissed this. Echoes of 12/29/12. Tim Kelley 10:30am: Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan Blizzard option remains on the table I agree with Tim Kelley. I don't follow him at all, I still have no idea what channel NECN is on DTV But, I always liked him and the other guy Matt. Like I said Bob Copeland would have been all over this a day or two ago as well, as would Don Kent. I wish Barry Burbank was on Channel 4 because although I like the mets they all have, none of them at noon have the ability to forecast this type of system. Maybe the guy on WHDH. It's been so long since we've had this type of pattern, they'll be waiting until the models show it before making the leap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sref snow probs are impressive - sure that's already been discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why was this thread ever pinned? The analysis throughout is pretty skin deep with a lot of matter-of-fact rip and reads with model cycles and so forth. There are inaccuracies throughout that are pretty egregious as well... For one, "bomb"? No, bomb is an AMS recognized term that means any cyclogenesis where deepening rate meet or exceeds 24 mb in 24 hours. This system never was characterized that way in the runs, nor were there any governing parameters that suggested it needed to be corrected that way. Yes, if the northern stream were to get more involved, it would assist, but even when it does, up around NS or thereabouts it does not go through any such rapidity in strengthening. A lot of imagination going on here. I know some may read this and get petty and hopeful that something will materialize of this so they can be childish and "see", but you'd be right for the wrong reasons - ie, dumb lucky. The overall construct of the atmosphere would have to be whole-scale altered to bring the hopes and dreams of the fan faithful to reality here. we'll see - Tip did you ever stop to consider that maybe we're taking a look at the situation and not just looking at models...you know..the type of stuff we did in the early 90s on usenet etc...before we had models and plumes, and ensembles to tell us what was going to happen? If you just looked at models 48+ hours ago you'd have been looking at high cirrus today. Doesn't always work. And yes I'm fully aware of the characteristics of a bomb. It was used in a figurative sense, not literal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS in this instance - I'd take it over the NAM because the NAM has real issues with placement of s/w features like these outside of 18-24 hours. The NAM is going to verify pretty poorly in relative terms even at 18z. GFS/Euro are much less prone to wild swings. I expect the Euro will show a similar outcome to the GFS and that there will be GEFS members amped. Just getting back now, need to get some stuff done and then will play around and see how things are going. DOES ANYONE have a good water vapor loop that isn't java based like UCAR? Removed java because of the security issues. Thanks I think you can choose flash player like i do http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Canadian is a whiff. At 48 hours it's another 300-500 miles north with the QPF vs the 60hr 0z. Precip last run barely made the benchmark, this time it scrapes the cape. Trends. Sref snow probs are impressive - sure that's already been discussed I can't lie I don't believe much in the SREFs. I know many, including Will, speak very highly of them. Those are probably the most impressive probabilities for us I've seen in ages. But, I don't love the SREFs. Cold Front, anything on a large scale with Canada? Tip, not picking a battle with you. But you're pinning this to models that 12-18 hours ago were 1000 miles further south with precip. Kind of pointless IMO. Let's see what the ensembles and Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just saying that this is feast or famine so lets see what the other runs do. I think if I were Phil I'd look forward to some snow, heavy heavy flags NW of the canal. At least IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At 48 hours it's another 300-500 miles north with the QPF vs the 60hr 0z. Precip last run barely made the benchmark, this time it scrapes the cape. Trends. I can't lie I don't believe much in the SREFs. I know many, including Will, speak very highly of them. Those are probably the most impressive probabilities for us I've seen in ages. But, I don't love the SREFs. SREFs are good inside 48hrs. I use them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 People are racing to post snowfall maps on FB and Twitter. Who can get the first map out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tip did you ever stop to consider that maybe we're taking a look at the situation and not just looking at models...you know..the type of stuff we did in the early 90s on usenet etc...before we had models and plumes, and ensembles to tell us what was going to happen? If you just looked at models 48+ hours ago you'd have been looking at high cirrus today. Doesn't always work. And yes I'm fully aware of the characteristics of a bomb. It was used in a figurative sense, not literal. that's precisely my point: the majority of the post in here are rip-and-reads; read what I wrote, dude! lord. And, it is not air apparent that the situation is being considered, because there is nothing in the situation that warrants this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z Ukie is a CC scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's precisely my point: the majority of the post in here are rip-and-reads; read what I wrote, dude! lord. And, it is not air apparent that the situation is being considered, because there is nothing in the situation that warrants this. Sorry man, just got back from the gym Here's my point for everyone on the "misses" It's rare to see these types of changes at this range. IMO related to the major changes going on in advance of this big pattern change. Models are catching up. It's a BIG mistake to assume just because these changes are occurring run to run, that they'll continue to run in our favor. If the 18z verification supports better placement of features sure....but we can't connect those dots yet. It's a possibility. Look at the 6 hour change in the UKMET alone at 500mb. Old run, new run. There's now definitive interaction between the systems, but still a smidge too late. But who wants to bet that after just 6 hours of change it's done now? I wouldn't. Are animated gifs working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 And we can see how things responded in terms of moisture. The UK now clips us. This is the change from 6z to 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ukie is way NW from its 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ukie is way NW from its 00z run but not a bomb right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GEFS is NW again and for comparison, here's yesterdays 12z GEFS for the same time period (Friday morning) vs todays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ukie is way NW from its 00z run Here's the extent of the QPF on the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's the extent of the QPF on the Ukie. P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif The UK and GGEM are scrapes/misses. The RGEM is probably 200-300 miles NW with the precip of the GGEM...I've been told many times over the years inside of 48, toss the GGEM in favor of the RGEM. That and everything else tells me the GFS/GEFS/NAM/RGEM are probably on the right track and that the UK/GGEM get tossed. Euro should come north. NOGAPS shifted several hundred miles north from the last run but it's still just north of the BM with QPF. It's among the worst verifying models, I think we're seeing a trend for the poorer models to be way too surpressed. Toss them. Let's see what the euro shows. Anyone have the RPM by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Last bit for awhile, NCEP coming along to the more extreme solutions. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAYTROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAYPREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS TRENDED STRONGER ANDMORE SEPARATED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE TROUGHING ACROSS THENORTHEAST, WHICH LED TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW REMINISCENTOF YESTERDAY'S 12Z NAM SOLUTION. THIS EXTENDS TO THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LIKE MOST DAYS, THE 12Z NAM IS THE STRONGESTOF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT AND MOST NORTHERLY AT THE SURFACE, LYING ATOR BEYOND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE 12Z NAM.THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITHTHIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS WINTER WEATHERPOTENTIAL (PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS) WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THESURFACE LOW TRACK. SEE THE PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICINGDISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'SWINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTICSTATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why was this thread ever pinned? The analysis throughout is pretty skin deep with a lot of matter-of-fact rip and reads with model cycles and so forth. There are inaccuracies throughout that are pretty egregious as well... For one, "bomb"? No, bomb is an AMS recognized term that means any cyclogenesis where deepening rate meet or exceeds 24 mb in 24 hours. This system never was characterized that way in the runs, nor were there any governing parameters that suggested it needed to be corrected that way. Yes, if the northern stream were to get more involved, it would assist, but even when it does, up around NS or thereabouts it does not go through any such rapidity in strengthening. A lot of imagination going on here. I know some may read this and get petty and hopeful that something will materialize of this so they can be childish and "see", but you'd be right for the wrong reasons - ie, dumb lucky. The overall construct of the atmosphere would have to be whole-scale altered to bring the hopes and dreams of the fan faithful to reality here. we'll see - you can be a real wad bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 you can be a real wad bro We're just talking about the weather. When a few models graze areas with decent QPF, shouldn't we discuss it. It is a weather forum after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If my memory is correct, Tip was on board with (I think it was the NAM) for the 12-29-11 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We're just talking about the weather. When a few models graze areas with decent QPF, shouldn't we discuss it. It is a weather forum after all. His Jan 20-24 is not pinned. I think CC has a shot at some decent accumulations out of this, as of today. why would you write it off if you were Saki or Phil? Only going to take a minor bump Northwest and they are in the CCB. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hint:Look for -8c isotherm It's out over ACK/MVY. So that means no snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 We're just talking about the weather. When a few models graze areas with decent QPF, shouldn't we discuss it. It is a weather forum after all. We're so dependent on models now. Can you imagine guys actually forecasted (with not the best accuracy) by just looking at things like satellites and obs which only updated every so often? Technology for Dickie, Harv, Bob, Don and those guys was the green wall....what a marvel. Back when they forecast with a chalkboard...and looked out the window. Great clip of Don Kent and Bob Copeland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's out over ACK/MVY. So that means no snow for you. its going to snow from this back to the NY border. Amounts still in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Boston and old guys, watch this. BTW, Natalie Richardson was older when I watched, she was a babe back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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