ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's really cold. ongoing CAA through basically the whole day...850s dip to -18C by the afternoon. Euro whipped the GFS on that mini-cold shot. For several runs a few days ago, the GFS had like -12 to -14C 850 temps while the Euro was in that -18 to -20C range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I see what Tim is talking about - verbatim the NAM/GFS are not far from a major blowup. But. Here's a caution flag, UK didn't budge really at all. I don't take much from that yet because the data is limited, but is there maybe a gremlin in the INIT on the HPC side? Sure it develops a nice southern system which is not in doubt at all, but it doesn't get it all that far north - real big glance here.We'll see what the CMC and Euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If he calls this...boy, best met in NE. Usually when he harps on something, it is legit.Regardless...it is dumb to whip out the B word 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro whipped the GFS on that mini-cold shot. For several runs a few days ago, the GFS had like -12 to -14C 850 temps while the Euro was in that -18 to -20C range. yeah there was a 6z run maybe it was sun or yesterday that i think only had -7C here. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I see what Tim is talking about - verbatim the NAM/GFS are not far from a major blowup. But. Here's a caution flag, UK didn't budge really at all. I don't take much from that yet because the data is limited, but is there maybe a gremlin in the INIT on the HPC side? Sure it develops a nice southern system which is not in doubt at all, but it doesn't get it all that far north - real big glance here. We'll see what the CMC and Euro do. i'd be thrilled to even get scraped by this thing. not saying it can't happen - literally saying i'd be thrilled. lol. i only see so much room in this flow and also think anything that does manage to get its act together will be racing along. we'll see what the rest of the runs have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 i'd be thrilled to even get scraped by this thing. not saying it can't happen - literally saying i'd be thrilled. lol. i only see so much room in this flow and also think anything that does manage to get its act together will be racing along. we'll see what the rest of the runs have. I'm curious to see the Euro....but to be honest regardless of what it shows I think it's 6z or 12z before we get the final picture. For one we will then have the southern s/w solidly in the US and out of Mexico where for whatever reason we seem to struggle handling them, and also because the AK s/w will be easy to verify as real/ghost, stronger/weaker. The only way this turns into something bigger IMO is tied to that northern feature. It simply cannot get any further north than it is right now without a stronger s/w which would dig a bit more, further sw, interact faster and create a situation where you and perhaps I can get a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Saki sniffed this one out... agree this is extremely close to a much bigger impact on eastern SNE. It's clear a well-timed and more energetic shortwave in the northern stream could catch this potent southern system. A better phase and boom. Short of just waiting for model output: 1) can we say what could make the northern stream more involved? 2) what is influencing timing of the pulses coming out of Canada? 3) what could be the model blind spots right now? and can we identify these in verification over the next 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Honestly, its like Kev has taken over Tim Kelleys twitter the past few days. Lord. Twitter hype!! Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 00z gfs coming closer to new england #blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 94 and Birving and Snowjob can kiss my arse. May not be anything here but I told Matt Zwyts the other day, in 94 things blew up out of nowhere, tonight being one fr us, and this next one probably being one for them and even a CC couple unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man...gfs and nam are look very very similay...congrats Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 94 and Birving and Snowjob can kiss my arse. May not be anything here but I told Matt Zwyts the other day, in 94 things blew up out of nowhere, tonight being one fr us, and this next one probably being one for them and even a CC couple unexpected. i posted in the wrong thread and self-moderated...wtf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 94 and Birving and Snowjob can kiss my arse. May not be anything here but I told Matt Zwyts the other day, in 94 things blew up out of nowhere, tonight being one fr us, and this next one probably being one for them and even a CC couple unexpected. This one isn't there yet though. The spectre of a NCEP init problem is there. GGEM/UK/NOGAPS are all more intense to some degree with the southern system, but a couple are actually more unfavorable than earlier runs up north. The GGEM specifically comes in at a wave smashing angle. GGEM/NOGAPS really aren't close at all. UK based on the RH is a glance, will wait on the Euro. The CMC/NOGAPS did come north through 48 vs earlier runs, but after that gone. Euro will tip it one way or the other, if it's a legit deal the Euro will come way north and probably be somewhere towards the NCEP stuff, if this is a phantom, we'll see that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This one isn't there yet though. The spectre of a NCEP init problem is there. GGEM/UK/NOGAPS are all more intense to some degree with the southern system, but a couple are actually more unfavorable than earlier runs up north. The GGEM specifically comes in at a wave smashing angle. GGEM/NOGAPS really aren't close at all. UK based on the RH is a glance, will wait on the Euro. The CMC/NOGAPS did come north through 48 vs earlier runs, but after that gone. Euro will tip it one way or the other, if it's a legit deal the Euro will come way north and probably be somewhere towards the NCEP stuff, if this is a phantom, we'll see that too. Matt lives in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i posted in the wrong thread and self-moderated...wtf??Lol you weenied me for commenting about 94 starting with a small overrunning to ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Um...the clipper trended south this run too...but I think that would be bad for the storm along the coast, correct? It looks very moisture starved too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 GEFS moved NW about 100 or so miles from the 18z run. .1 now about Boston to Warwick, .25 clips SE cape cod/ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 CMC is still pretty far SE but it looks north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 CMC is still pretty far SE but it looks north from 12z. UK came pretty far NW at 48 and 60 vs its 12z. The thing is there's clearly no real interaction with the northern system. GEFS being even more on the bus than the OP GFS would usually signal more potential, but the fact that all foreign models/non HPC have strengthened the southern system but not really had any bump north after DE. We will see what the Euro does, if the Euro didn't bump north 48-72, I'd be really skeptical of the NCEP stuff until the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 In basketball we call this a garbage point. It's when the play that should have worked, didn't, and the big guys down low put in the rebound. That SW low gets forcibly injected into the meat grinder and it becomes a race between it damping out vs still having enough might to give activity. As is, this should bring some wintry action to lower Appalachia to lower MA regions, which they will certainly rejoice if they are winter weather enthusiasts. But this is a synoptic afterthought. Actually, the "event" up here tomorrow is, as well. But it's a not bomb as far affecting the EC above much above the VA Capes. It should quickly escape seaward and curl up to impact eastern NS perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ironically the arctic air that everyone wanted is what is going to screw this up from being a big storm for us. I'd take snow over arctic cold any day... What is Tim Kelley doing on twitter?? Completely irresponsible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'd take snow over arctic cold any day... What is Tim Kelley doing on twitter?? Completely irresponsible. lol He'd be better off talking about 1/22 and not this pipe dream. Cape can still get scraped, but for most of New England, its nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 He'd be better off talking about 1/22 and not this pipe dream. Cape can still get scraped, but for most of New England, its nothing. Yeah, 1/22 looks like it has some potential to be a big one, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro is coming north. May have the northern s/w too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tim Kelley confirmed on twitter he was talking about this system not 1/22. Really bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Way wide right. Maybe some weenie snow for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Also kelley zeroing on potent oes friday if storm misses lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Also kelley zeroing on potent oes friday if storm misses lol That's def a possibility...at least for a time on the Cape. But the storm itself seems almost impossible to get NW with this arctic front blitzing in from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tim Kelley confirmed on twitter he was talking about this system not 1/22. Really bizarre. Also kelley zeroing on potent oes friday if storm misses lol Did Kevin get into his account? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At least its cold friday morning....lower single digits for ORH. Prob some 0F readings in the Monads and N GC....according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah I'm not far from the bridge in Plymouth. A day or two ago everyone ripped Kevin over his north trend. It's not wise to assume a north trend in this current system mean it'll happen again but the same principles would apply. I'd have said 12 hours ago the euro with all the support was right a flat wave. 12 hours ago it had a wave dying off the Carolina's at 12z Thursday. The nearest precip was 600-700 miles from here. 12 hours later it nips the cape. That's enormous for the euro. Doesn't mean squat though unless it continues for another run. It's close. Not there yet. But flip between the old 60/72 and the current run to see there's a small window there in se areas. If I had to bet it'd be on accumulating snow in se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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