N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't think that's going to verify....I don't know why so many people are pessimistic for the Boston area. Besides Logan Airport immediately on the water, I was thinking 4-8" for Boston. Even on the 18z GFS, which is much warmer than the Euro, the 850 line is well south of BOS at 39 hours and already .5" QPF has fallen. It's still amazing the difference in temps between GFS and Euro. Euro is so much colder, and that could be a crucial difference for marginal areas like mine and Boston. . Everyone is pessimistic for bos based on bl winds being east. East winds +f more than 15 mph and its all ova in december for the coast within 4-5 miles esp with a primary gettin so far north before transfer. Maybe 2 inches in bos? 850's maybe below 0c 925-950 mb another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 10-14 for ORH is high IMO. Im thinking less than an inch for me right now. Maybe 2 If lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has 1-3" to MA/NH border...yikes. IMO thats a bit too warm. Even the NAM had BDL and HFD starting out as snow and in other areas that are in his all rain zone.Im using I395 on East as the dividing line for where the SE flow will cause the most abrupt cutoff for snow accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 18z GFS warms even NW Mass above freezing (a significant layer of the column) on Thursday morning. Fortunately by then a lot of snow (maybe a little sleet) has fallen. The NAM is much worse with a lot of warming between 700mb and 850mb. It looks like a sleet fest changing to rain. I hope both models are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 P.S. I highly recommend saving regional radar images tonight. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Melikes the new box map:). Congrats ct on watch. Now to get through the 00 run......... Will be home fir at least he gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 FYP because 30 hrs is a lifetime in model time this year. We need a patriots niners comeback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 18z GFS warms even NW Mass above freezing (a significant layer of the column) on Thursday morning. Fortunately by then a lot of snow (maybe a little sleet) has fallen. The NAM is much worse with a lot of warming between 700mb and 850mb. It looks like a sleet fest changing to rain. I hope both models are too warm. The NAM/GFS thermal profiles are so much warmer than the ECM that you almost have to discard them. Hard to believe a strong model like the Euro would be that mistaken at this close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 10-14 for ORH is high IMO. Im thinking less than an inch for me right now. Maybe 2 If lucky. What would you go for ORH? I think 5-9" is a good call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has 1-3" to MA/NH border...yikes. Word combos of DT, JB, and HM should be banned from this forum HM= Henry Marguisity not poster HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS seemed to pull back a little northwest. One notable trend that I'm seeing in both the GFS and Euro today is a tendency to develop the banded mode of the storm quicker and thus more prolonged heavy snow on the northwest side of the departing low I should also include the CMC in that group. Also trending toward a more prominent banded mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 IMO thats a bit too warm. Even the NAM had BDL and HFD starting out as snow and in other areas that are in his all rain zone. Im using I395 on East as the dividing line for where the SE flow will cause the most abrupt cutoff for snow accums. He has both BDL and HFD in 3-8 inches of snow to sleet and never changes to plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I should also include the CMC in that group. Also trending toward a more prominent banded mode. Your 4-8 call for this area from yesterday looks dead balls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Your 4-8 call for this area from yesterday looks dead balls on. Yea a few people keyed in on that. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What would you go for ORH? I think 5-9" is a good call... I shouldn't make a call without looking closely, but I would agree. Just really havent looked a ton today, not do I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I should also include the CMC in that group. Also trending toward a more prominent banded mode. OKC 12 inches fail? IDK where DT came up with his forecast for tomorrow night. Rip and read NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The NAM/GFS thermal profiles are so much warmer than the ECM that you almost have to discard them. Hard to believe a strong model like the Euro would be that mistaken at this close range. It would be hard to believe. But do we know what the Euro vertical profiles look like? The mid and low level tracks look good. It'salso nice to have support from the GGEM and UK I believe. I feel like in synoptic setups roughly similar to this, the surface is often colder than modeled, and portions of the midlevels are often warmer. And that usually results in more sleet than expected. But then again, the model programming has changed over the years so past experience might not be particularly informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It would be hard to believe. But do we know what the Euro vertical profiles look like? The mid and low level tracks look good. It'salso nice to have support from the GGEM and UK I believe. I feel like in synoptic setups roughly similar to this, the surface is often colder than modeled, and portions of the midlevels are often warmer. And that usually results in more sleet than expected. But then again, the model programming has changed over the years so past experience might not be particularly informative. The sleet is always closer than it appears. I have said a couple of times this has a V Day 07 appeal. Kevin check out DTs final call, WTH? Is that, (about as much a chance of verifying as monkeys flying out of my butt,) groink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The sleet is always closer than it appears. I have said a couple of times this has a V Day 07 appeal. Kevin check out DTs final call, WTH? Is that, (about as much a chance of verifying as monkeys flying out of my butt,) groink. The edges are always tricky. He's got me right on the 3-8 line. His all rain area is way too far NW though. This is the point I made earlier when Forky deleted my post. Mets that don't live up here don't understand climo and the nuances of the area so they broad brush everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The edges are always tricky. He's got me right on the 3-8 line. His all rain area is way too far NW though. This is the point I made earlier when Forky deleted my post. Mets that don't live up here don't understand climo and the nuances of the area so they broad brush everything What? Repost it. fYI big tornado hit Mobile Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 P.S. I highly recommend saving regional radar images tonight. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looking at the CIPS analogs....analogues 2-6 or something are very nice considering what we are expecitng. That said, since it is Christmas, not much time to look at anything. Places inside of 495 should be mostly rain after some front end snow. Those outside of 495 should get a good thump then mix or ice for a while. All depends on how strong of an ageostrophic component we can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has 1-3" to MA/NH border...yikes. Overly conservative much? Me thinks yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has all of ORH county in all rain. Lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has all of ORH county in all rain. Lock that up. Really? Maybe he is not that concerned for this region...focusing for on his area? Huge win for him if that verifies...huge loss for me 4-8" I think is in my cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My call. T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has all of ORH county in all rain. Lock that up. Everyone going conservative maybe? Just watched Noyes and he had 4" up to MA/NH border with washout inside of 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Everyone going conservative maybe? Just watched Noyes and he had 4" up to MA/NH border with washout inside of 128. This is his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If you are going to forcast out of your area on a pro level, best to know Climo and Topography Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT's map doesn't even make any sense. He has a 4" line north of a swath where you could possibly get as much as 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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