SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM ... some CAPE instability existing across CT and RI, and a good stripe of a deep saturated CSI layer Why is depth good? More moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Little confused that Box has me under a WSW and yet snowfall map shows less than a inch? Box has me under a wsw with 10 to 15 inches of snow but yet there are several tv mets saying only around 6 inches. the have been going back and fourth all day between 6 to 12 to 12"+ and to around 6" hopefully the ooz runs will make it more clear! feel like I will have a good thump of 6 to 8" then heavy sleet and ice! should be fun going to be a long night tomorrow night! exciting though if you love winter storms! hope the weekend storm slams us as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM ... some CAPE instability existing across CT and RI, and a good stripe of a deep saturated CSI layer nice upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Box has me under a wsw with 10 to 15 inches of snow but yet there are several tv mets saying only around 6 inches. the have been going back and fourth all day between 6 to 12 to 12"+ and to around 6" hopefully the ooz runs will make it more clear! feel like I will have a good thump of 6 to 8" then heavy sleet and ice! should be fun going to be a long night tomorrow night! exciting though if you love winter storms! hope the weekend storm slams us as well! The forecasting for this storm has been horrific. TV stations are especially going to be playing catch-up only calling for a few inches in interior southern NH and along the Maine Coast, areas where 6-10" should fall easily. Of course, it's difficult to make a good forecast when the NAM/GFS couplet, the models American forecasters tend to rely on, are so much warmer than the GGEM/RGEM/ECM. For example, the Euro has the 850 freezing line south of me at 42 hours while the GFS has it near Albany, 120 miles to the north. Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Box has me under a wsw with 10 to 15 inches of snow but yet there are several tv mets saying only around 6 inches. the have been going back and fourth all day between 6 to 12 to 12"+ and to around 6" hopefully the ooz runs will make it more clear! feel like I will have a good thump of 6 to 8" then heavy sleet and ice! should be fun going to be a long night tomorrow night! exciting though if you love winter storms! hope the weekend storm slams us as well! 6" seems low for you, but not sure 10-15"....at least the 15 anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm located in Sandown NH right on the Chester NH border. The drive up from Haverhill MA. north,along rt.121A can be amazing in these situations. You can go from rain in Haverhill to a raging snowstorm 10 miles north. Elevation increase is only ~150'asl. AKA... driving by my house. Hopefully I'll stay snowy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Why is depth good? More moisture? It is slant-wise instability. If it is deeper then you just have a deeper layer in the column that is conditionally unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Box has me under a wsw with 10 to 15 inches of snow but yet there are several tv mets saying only around 6 inches. the have been going back and fourth all day between 6 to 12 to 12"+ and to around 6" hopefully the ooz runs will make it more clear! feel like I will have a good thump of 6 to 8" then heavy sleet and ice! should be fun going to be a long night tomorrow night! exciting though if you love winter storms! hope the weekend storm slams us as well! Us NH Erics need to stick together! I think most of the state is under a WSW except for coastal Rockingham. The afternoon AFD made it sound like a general foot outside the coast but I think that's high for a lot of us south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Radar is pretty impressive tonight over the lower Mississippi Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6" seems low for you, but not sure 10-15"....at least the 15 anyways. Seeing these 12"+ numbers are scaring me. Those types of storms don't grow on trees, and there is messy bust potential even up into C NH and SW ME. I think GYX has done a really good job, but I'm not ready to pull out the starters yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It is slant-wise instability. If it is deeper then you just have a deeper layer in the column that is conditionally unstable. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seeing these 12"+ numbers are scaring me. Those types of storms don't grow on trees, and there is messy bust potential even up into C NH and SW ME. I think GYX has done a really good job, but I'm not ready to pull out the starters yet. I'll look more when I get home, but some of these numbers down this way look very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seeing these 12"+ numbers are scaring me. Those types of storms don't grow on trees, and there is messy bust potential even up into C NH and SW ME. I think GYX has done a really good job, but I'm not ready to pull out the starters yet. I'm very new to this so have tons to learn but this seems like a brutal system to forecast. Huge QPF slamming into a marginally cold air mass over a large area...big ugh. Tough job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well, hopefully the Canadian verifies, looks like a colder version of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think in general a decent area of 10-12 has good support. Getting 12-14+ is a much different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Big big bust potential, still time, somebody made a great post before, Miller As always seem to end up warmer aloft in mid layers. Wonder if ice is being underplayed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Dry slut issues too. I think I am toast but not far from me could get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think in general a decent area of 10-12 has good support. Getting 12-14+ is a much different story Ride 10-12" and forecast 12"-15" in the typical terrain enhanced spots. Can't go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Dry slut issues too. I think I am toast but not far from me could get slammed. What town are you steve? I'm on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00Z NAM is running. Expecting it to come in a little colder. but not much. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Big big bust potential, still time, somebody made a great post before, Miller As always seem to end up warmer aloft in mid layers. Wonder if ice is being underplayed? Where are you located? Ya I think there will be some surprises with such a dynamic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What town are you steve? I'm on my phone I live in Moosup CT on the RI border about 5 miles from Foster RI. NW RI to Tolland is the big question. Do they get that.. 8 qpf bomb in max snow growth like the 12 z GFS and Euro or is it a rapid meh. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seeing these 12"+ numbers are scaring me. Those types of storms don't grow on trees, and there is messy bust potential even up into C NH and SW ME. I think GYX has done a really good job, but I'm not ready to pull out the starters yet. Big big bust potential, still time, somebody made a great post before, Miller As always seem to end up warmer aloft in mid layers. Wonder if ice is being underplayed? Yup. Models and Mets have been throwing caution flags for days about potential mid-level warming issues so I for one wouldn't be spiking the ball until I'm standing in my yard in SN+ with 6"+ showing on my ruler already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Whats the general consensus for snowfall amounts and icing potential for Northeastern Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yup. Models and Mets have been throwing caution flags for days about potential mid-level warming issues so I for one wouldn't be spiking the ball until. standing in my yard in SN+ with 6"+ showing on my ruler already. the sleet is closer than it appears. The farther NW you are the better chance you get blitzed. Tides and winds on the coast for those interested. Oh by the way yet another Full moon Megastorm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Steve...as one of the most knowledgeable amateurs, what is your gun to head call for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Whats the general consensus for snowfall amounts and icing potential for Northeastern Connecticut? 0-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I live in Moosup CT on the RI border about 5 miles from Foster RI. NW RI to Tolland is the big question. Do they get that.. 8 qpf bomb in max snow growth like the 12 z GFS and Euro or is it a rapid meh. Interesting Hmm. Think an inch or two is safe for you. Cool town name by the way. Think nw ri and the areas you mentioned is almost unforecastable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 3-5 ft surge on top of astro tides, very serious coastal flooding event in western long island sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Steve...as one of the most knowledgeable amateurs, what is your gun to head call for here lol thanks but mostly a hack weenie. 7 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.