ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Shocked they haven't upgraded us to a warning You are? What are your thoughts for this reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Regardless of how this plays--this is a pretty impressive winter weather map here. Hopefully we'll see many like this down the road. Now, to the GFS.... Mean track is a little SE of the previous systems (Chicago gets nothing this time)..hopefully by the weekend it's far enough east there are no precip issues. GFS at 0z seems to be pretty similar to the 18z. Slight timing differences which make it look like there are temp changes but I'm not sure that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone remind me where to get the GGEM black and white maps? http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all_00z.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone remind me where to get the GGEM black and white maps? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html Thank you. Must have been lost to the abiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You are? What are your thoughts for this reasoning? Cause I'm calling for 6-10 here toward points nw, I've stuck with that since last nightt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i'd be nervous about the nam's consistency and the fact that we're within 36 hours now I've got no stake in the game since I'll be in NNE where all models show lots of snow. Out of curiosity though, are you personally putting more weight with the NAM or with the globals? They're night and day, completely different. What's your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS seems cold. Nightmare forecast south of the Pike. 8h stays south for a good chunk of QPF even over here as surface temps warm kind of quickly. Dynamics enough to offset easterly winds? Maybe. Such a huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i'd be nervous about the nam's consistency and the fact that we're within 36 hours now what about the fact the nam has been the worst for soundings and placement based on 0z readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Crushed 12+ for you! Confident to make my final call for 2-5" here. Boston: < 1" Worcester: 4-7" Manchester: 6-9" RED FLAGS: Noyes not bullish, DT all rain SNE, NAM, no ORHwxman, no 40/70 online today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM crushed CNCT before the flip with .7 to. .9 of paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Cause I'm calling for 6-10 here toward points nw, I've stuck with that since last nightt I wish you the best of luck and hope that you are right. I wish everyone snow. But I just worry about warm temps advecting in and ruining our chances of higher totals. Even if you use the 850 0 C line as the rain snow line on tonight's GFS, then N CT ends up with .5" of snow. Assuming that all sticks as snow with a 10-1 ratio, then we may approach low end warning numbers. But I'm not excited about these chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 When are you going to make a call? You seem to be tentative, What is skewing your thoughts? The flu? lolI'm worried about some dryslot issues sneaking in at some point and/or some mid level taint. There will be a lot of snow regardless, but it is scaring me from those 12-18" numbers. I'm liking a general 8-12" right now for my area...6-10" toward CON. There's room to bump those up a couple of inches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12+ for you! Close to if not over 2.00" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I wish you the best of luck, I'll keep you posted, if I bust I bust...for me its simply entertainment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Definitely earlier occlusion going on. GFS takes the low right over Nantucket as opposed to over the Cape itself. That's about a 25 mile shift East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Crushed Is the qpf near 2 again? If it is, and if the Euro holds serve, I am going to demand that you up your forecast. We'll see in the morning as I am heading to sleep. Nighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Crushed Wow--congratulations, Jeff! That looks awesome. Might even stay cold enough right down to the mid-Coast at quick glance. Off to bed for me. I've seen all I can handle tonight. Merry Christmas, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The flu? lol I'm worried about some dryslot issues sneaking in at some point and/or some mid level taint. There will be a lot of snow regardless, but it is scaring me from those 12-18" numbers. I'm liking a general 8-12" right now for my area...6-10" toward CON. There's room to bump those up a couple of inches too. actually, the dry slot is my biggest worry at this point. A shift east by 25 or 50 miles might keep us just west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 FYI, there's a St Louis - Boston adage about what happens at the former, tends to happen at the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 WBZ map for 11pm newscast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll keep you posted, if I bust I bust...for me its simply entertainment! I edited my post above. If we could get this system to track a little further east and out over the water I would like our chances better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm liking 6-10" for ORH northward in central MA...probably more like 4-6" for S ORH county. I'd prob go like 7" for MBY...but I'd like to see one more Euro run. The NAM warmer solutions are interesting and throw a hint of doubt into the forecast amongst an otherwise excellent model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I edited my post above. If we could get this system to track a little further east and out over the water I would like our chances better. Where are ya? I'm on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The flu? lol I'm worried about some dryslot issues sneaking in at some point and/or some mid level taint. There will be a lot of snow regardless, but it is scaring me from those 12-18" numbers. I'm liking a general 8-12" right now for my area...6-10" toward CON. There's room to bump those up a couple of inches too. Yeah, Hope your feeling better, Sounds like it has been a battle for you, I figured it was a warm layer that had your attention, I have 10-14" here, the fact that the Nam is really the only model that's getting the H85 pretty far NW at the moment does not concern me unless there is another warm layer in there somewhere but i would have thumped pretty well before then, It seems for here anyways that it crashes back SE before i see it, 0z GFS was colder and slightly east here with close to 2.00" qpf so i have room to go up as well me thinks............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 12+ for you! Confident to make my final call for 2-5" here. Boston: < 1" Worcester: 4-7" Manchester: 6-9" RED FLAGS: Noyes not bullish, DT all rain SNE, NAM, no ORHwxman, no 40/70 online today. There's actually a variable, Psi, in the physics for that multi-parametric derivation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow--congratulations, Jeff! That looks awesome. Might even stay cold enough right down to the mid-Coast at quick glance. Off to bed for me. I've seen all I can handle tonight. Merry Christmas, everyone. Thanks Mike and good luck down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Final call. Expecting to bust low especially on the second line of cities. HPN:2-4 BDR, HVN, GON, PVD, BOS: 1-3 HFD, BDL: 3-6 ORH: 4-8 Berkshires, Litchfield Hills: 5-10 S VT, S NH, far interior of C MA (think Fitchburg): 6-12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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