ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Do you have the approx. time when the changeover occurs for the I84 corridor? Which part? Up near the MA border and Union, CT it will probably be after midnight...down back toward DXR it would be much faster than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ".LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL REFORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE MOVING NE. GFS...AND THE EURO ARE IN AGREEING CAMPS IN TERMS OF TRACK AND COOLER THERMAL PROFILE. THE NAM IS VERY WARM...WITH THE GGEM VERY COLD. HAVE FOLLOWED THE THE GFS/EURO SOLUTION. HAVING SAID THAT...TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...AND WITH OUR CURRENT...NEWLY FORMED SNOWPACK IN PLACE...HAVE NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTED THE POSSIBLY OF THE COOLER GGEM SOLUTION. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT WINTER STORM WATCHES UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EVENT THIS COOLER SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST TO INTERIOR AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE INTERIOR. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW...WITH MORE POSSIBLY ACROSS THE HIGHER FACING NE TERRAIN...AND LESS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOW LYING VALLEYS (PARTICULARLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY)." GYX AFD for Storm... great point to leave Winter Storm Watches up along the Maine Coastline... may still take a slightly colder track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah those numbers look nice. I just don't see those numbers BOX has. Well to be fair, BOX has like 8" for ORH I think...the big 10-14" is just NW of that area...and east of Westborough/Framingham they have 2-4". They just have an insane gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output. Got a valid point buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output. According to the HPC diagnostics discussion the 0z NAM has initialization errors: INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WHICH HAS POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR ITS FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 My official forecast for my BY is 5-9" (with an all nighter for me tracking the storm on here...and I can't wait. Heavy heavy loss of sleep.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well to be fair, BOX has like 8" for ORH I think...the big 10-14" is just NW of that area...and east of Westborough/Framingham they have 2-4". They just have an insane gradient. They have 10-14" going right down the ridge line there to ORH airport/Paxton/Leicester in their map. But even for Weenie ridge in Princeton...I'm a bit skeptical of 10-14"...I guess I could see 10"...14" might be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 According to the HPC diagnostics discussion the 0z NAM has initialization errors: INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WHICH HAS POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR ITS FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. They really need to look at what they're doing with the NAM. It's not really even usable most of the time...and this year that's made it all the way inside of even 12 hours. The model has gotten worse not better in the last 1-2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output. There's also a huge discrepency in the mid-level temps on the NAM with the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NCEP just updated. GFS has the same temp issues but in a different area (too warm). STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ====================================== PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Got a valid point buddy the gfs never has like double the snow over the nam for me. Except this year. Something happened with the nam over the last few months and I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 There's also a huge discrepency in the mid-level temps on the NAM with the other guidance. but does it make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Would you rather I use the NAM? KING FTW. Older posters know what I mean...where's LL when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output. GFS would be a snow bomb up here......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Tough forecast for all of SNE tonight. This is one of those events that could go either way. WAA could win out a la the NAM and flip many areas to sleet and rain faster or the CAD and dynamic cooling could offset the WAA for a good chunk of the event and lead to significant totals for the interior. I don't think coastal sections look too good either way. My numbers reflect what I believe to be a middle ground scenario. This could go up or down depending on how this thing transpires. I'd say < 1" for BOS (east wind of death without strong cold airmass), 4-6" for ORH, 2-4" for BDL, and 1-3" PVD. Near my BY, I'm going with 7-9" for PSF with amounts of 10-12" for the east slope above 1K and north of the Pike. North of ORH around Wachusett is probably 7-9". Much of NNE does well with a lot of 8-12"+ amounts where there is no taint.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 but does it make sense? I don't see a reason to believe it over a skillful ensemble of the Euro/GFS/GEFS/Euro ensembles/UKMET/RGEM I'm not sure why its so warm. We'll find out who is right and who is wrong. I think the smart money would probably be on the latter modle set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 KING FTW. Older posters know what I mean...where's LL when you need him? Euro lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Mby: 2-4!in a nice thump 9-3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS would be a snow bomb up here......... it's been on that for awhile. I had 1.5" of powder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here's tonights vs the 12z same time. The one with a bit more ML warming is the 0z tonight (look for pinks in CT for those with tired eyes) RGEM still keeps HPN and Danbury snow for a good 6hrs. Can't say for sure there won't be a warm layer somewhere, but surface will be close to freezing during that time. The warmup should occur after that first band subsides for most of CT and MASS. I'm guessing mid 30s interior to low 40s along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights? http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all_00z.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Tough forecast for all of SNE tonight. This is one of those events that could go either way. WAA could win out a la the NAM and flip many areas to sleet and rain faster or the CAD and dynamic cooling could offset the WAA for a good chunk of the event and lead to significant totals for the interior. I don't think coastal sections look too good either way. My numbers reflect what I believe to be a middle ground scenario. This could go up or down depending on how this thing transpires. I'd say < 1" for BOS (east wind of death without strong cold airmass), 4-6" for ORH, 2-4" for BDL, and 1-3" PVD. Near my BY, I'm going with 7-9" for PSF with amounts of 10-12" for the east slope above 1K and north of the Pike. North of ORH around Wachusett is probably 7-9". Much of NNE does well with a lot of 8-12"+ amounts where there is no taint.. I think people are getting too caught up in the east wind thing being a big deal here. I still don't understand how so many meteorologists can be so conservative for Boston, which is a snow town in SW Flow events generally. The GFS, which is MUCH warmer than the Euro or RGEM, still shows a solid frame of .25" QPF for Boston at 24 hours with the 850 line straddling the MA/CT border and the freezing line JUST north of Logan. Dewpoints are in the teens right now even on the water. Don't see how you're going to change such a cold, dry airmass over that quickly especially knowing climo east of the Apps. Finally, why are you still talking about the NAM when HPC has thrown it out for initialization errors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 it's been on that for awhile. I had 1.5" of powder today. I got 1.8" did not call in though, If you want to note it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 There are some serious storms firing up off the Carolinas' coast. Abnormally warm here...We were in shorts and tees in the north central NC Piedmont today. Seems like a lot of energy being dragged into this animal from these parts...being transferred to Cape Hatteras? Good luck with this up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They have 10-14" going right down the ridge line there to ORH airport/Paxton/Leicester in their map. But even for Weenie ridge in Princeton...I'm a bit skeptical of 10-14"...I guess I could see 10"...14" might be tough. Oh okay...yeah the BOX map barely has my area in 8-10"...like a few miles from 6-8"...which is a few miles from 4-6"....and so on. Hell of a forecast here. As bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think people are getting too caught up in the east wind thing being a big deal here. I still don't understand how so many meteorologists can be so conservative for Boston, which is a snow town in SW Flow events generally. The GFS, which is MUCH warmer than the Euro or RGEM, still shows a solid frame of .25" QPF for Boston at 24 hours with the 850 line straddling the MA/CT border and the freezing line JUST north of Logan. Dewpoints are in the teens right now even on the water. Don't see how you're going to change such a cold, dry airmass over that quickly especially knowing climo east of the Apps. Finally, why are you still talking about the NAM when HPC has thrown it out for initialization errors? BOS is in a tough spot when the winds go east. In many of the other SWFEs, the winds stayed more northerly for BOS. This is almost like a SWFE transitioning into a full blown coastal...the winds are much stronger and easterly than a typical weak sfc wave with ripping SW winds in the mid-levels...those things often had a light wind out of the NE/NNE. GFS soundings did show a few hours of wet snow for Logan...it will be close. I'm sure just off the water like where Jerry is can rip for a litte bit...but Logan will torch quickly in December with an east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output. Convective input is also effecting overall structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So it is. Interesting that the link that I grabbed that someone posted early won't update. No matter how many times I hit refresh it is still last night's 00z run. Damn technology. Change the dat when you change the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 BOS is in a tough spot when the winds go east. In many of the other SWFEs, the winds stayed more northerly for BOS. This is almost like a SWFE transitioning into a full blown coastal...the winds are much stronger and easterly than a typical weak sfc wave with ripping SW winds in the mid-levels...those things often had a light wind out of the NE/NNE. GFS soundings did show a few hours of wet snow for Logan...it will be close. I'm sure just off the water like where Jerry is can rip for a litte bit...but Logan will torch quickly in December with an east wind. Well if Jerrys rippin and I'm raining it's gonna be a sad time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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