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December 29-30 storm.

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

12/29-12/30's big brother is on the map at 120 hrs it seems

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F26%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=120&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted

Yea zwyts, not looking pretty and not much time. Small favorable trend in last 3 gfs runs. Latest is the most amplified (not saying much) .

We can squeeze something here. There is plenty of room to improve to a 1-3 in the cities. 2-4 if the stars align.

0z - 6z - 12z panel order.

It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine.

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Posted
Posted

It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine.

I think most events the next couple weeks will be minor in the cities and closer in burbs...your 4-6" event is kind of rosy....so far BWI/DCA have 0 inches and IAD - 0.2"...they may add a bit today...and we are on the way to one of the warmest Decembers on record...there is nothing old fashioned about this winter....Last winter was a statistical anomaly...we are going to get wintry events...we do almost every winter, but I doubt we see some SECS on the coastal plain anytime soon...hopefully I am wrong

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

It looks fine if you set expectations correctly. Perhaps this is the return of the old-fashioned winters where we got a bunch of 1-3/2-4/4-6 type events. We are used to having to hunt on the models for a bomb, I guess. Feast or famine.

Pretty much. The 70's and early 80's were loaded with 1-3 / 2-4.

Just a hunch but storms seem to improve and juice up on the models as we close in on them. And having this one scraping to the south is FAR from a bad thing. 1-3" is very much in the realm. We'll see. Maybe we get really lucky. Active fast flow is fun regardless.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
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I think most events the next couple weeks will be minor in the cities and closer in burbs...your 4-6" event is kind of rosy....so far BWI/DCA have 0 inches and IAD - 0.2"...they may add a bit today...and we are on the way to one of the warmest Decembers on record...there is nothing old fashioned about this winter....Last winter was a statistical anomaly...we are going to get wintry events...we do almost every winter, but I doubt we see some SECS on the coastal plain anytime soon...hopefully I am wrong

I get what you are saying, but I don't live at the airport. This week has been about what I was hoping it would be. I think some folks here get too wrapped around the "setup" axle comparing every event to some magical analog and then being disappointed that it didn't live up to it. I see this next event being more of the same, which is fine for one of the warmest Decembers ever in the MA.

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Posted
Posted

Pretty much. The 70's and early 80's were loaded with 1-3 / 2-4.

Just a hunch but storms seem to improve and juice up on the models as we close in on them. And having this one scraping to the south is FAR from a bad thing. 1-3" is very much in the realm. We'll see. Maybe we get really lucky. Active fast flow is fun regardless.

so far this winter is reminding me of all the semi-crappy winters of the late 80s, 90s...2001-02, 2011-12 are statistical anomalies...we will do better than that...but we will probably nickel and dime and mix and sleet and ice our way to 8" at DCA and more in the burbs....I think there is a good shot at a moderate snow event or maybe 2 for all of DC metro...maybe February?....impossible to say...so far this winter looks nothing like the cold and snowy winters of the late 70s and early to mid 80s....

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Posted
Posted

I get what you are saying, but I don't live at the airport. This week has been about what I was hoping it would be. I think some folks here get too wrapped around the "setup" axle comparing every event to some magical analog and then being disappointed that it didn't live up to it. I see this next event being more of the same, which is fine for one of the warmest Decembers ever in the MA.

I think your expectations are reasonable and if we can't enjoy these types of events we are going to be disappointed in almost every winter....I still think we get a cold month...I think February...Wes wasn't sure whether Jan or FEB....many of the 8-12"(more for you obviously) were enjoyable...very few winter are like last winter....maybe there was a silver lining...we set the bar low for this winter

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted

so far this winter is reminding me of all the semi-crappy winters of the late 80s, 90s...2001-02, 2011-12 are statistical anomalies...we will do better than that...but we will probably nickel and dime and mix and sleet and ice our way to 8" at DCA and more in the burbs....I think there is a good shot at a moderate snow event or maybe 2 for all of DC metro...maybe February?....impossible to say...so far this winter looks nothing like the cold and snowy winters of the late 70s and early to mid 80s....

Definitely wasn't trying to compare the temps. Just seemed like small events were much more common. But when I sit and think about it, it was colder back then. That can't really be argued. So, all the crap storms that dropped an inch or less last winter would have been 1-3 / 2-4 back in the 70's and 80's. Marginal temps seem to be a common theme the last decade+ except for the "perfect" ones.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

I think your expectations are reasonable and if we can't enjoy these types of events we are going to be disappointed in almost every winter....I still think we get a cold month...I think February...Wes wasn't sure whether Jan or FEB....many of the 8-12"(more for you obviously) were enjoyable...very few winter are like last winter....maybe there was a silver lining...we set the bar low for this winter

The Saturday event still is pretty iffy with that doggone trough running up towards the lakes. Our western guys can survive it but usually we have trouble and warm up in the boundary layerer sort of like the 12Z GFS is showing. Still it all depends on how quikcly the southern stream develops. If it is too slow, we'll warm just enough for rain. I saw about 5 to 10 minutes of mixed snow, sleet and rain. Living east of the city sometimes stinks.

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The Saturday event still is pretty iffy with that doggone trough running up towards the lakes. Our western guys can survive it but usually we have trouble and warm up in the boundary layerer sort of like the 12Z GFS is showing. Still it all depends on how quikcly the southern stream develops. If it is too slow, we'll warm just enough for rain. I saw about 5 to 10 minutes of mixed snow, sleet and rain. Living east of the city sometimes stinks.

I did a bit better in OId Town...around 1/2" (probably 0.4" but I'll round ;)....a spotter in Mt Vernon reported 0.3" at 9:15 so I think 1/2" ic accurate....changed back to moderate snow after the 1st 0.2" or so then some sleet accumulation as well....not bad...crunchy downtown

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