WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Another analog being thrown out by CPC for the current pattern is 2006. I don't believe that was a great year here but I don't know. Wasn't that the year that had the big flip to cold during Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If the ridge keeps retrograding in the Pacific. Eventually a troff can form off the west coast, a ridge can form over the WRN US and a troff can form over the east. If the Pac ridge stays where it is, we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 18z Gfs is horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 18z Gfs is horrendous Don't let the Baltimore mets know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Another analog being thrown out by CPC for the current pattern is 2006. I don't believe that was a great year here but I don't know. Wasn't that the year that had the big flip to cold during Jan? Not sure why they would use 06. Dec of 06 was a record high AO month with a 2.282 monthly. It was also a Nino year and had a big area of low heights in the pac where we are seeing a big ridge now. If anything 06 is an opposite analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Another analog being thrown out by CPC for the current pattern is 2006. I don't believe that was a great year here but I don't know. Wasn't that the year that had the big flip to cold during Jan? Jan was a warm month with less than 2 inches of snow. Feb was colder than normal with 5.6 or so, we ended up with 9.5 inches of snow at DCA. It was not a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That's cool that you have that. I'd love to see it. I'd be interested in cross-checking some events with another local station, if you'd be amenable to sharing. The data I have from Martinsburg has some odd reports included that I have tried to compare to nearby COOP stations to get a better sense of what took place, but its always tough finding good data for specific events. Also, the MRB data begins in 1926 when the airport started, and that excludes a lot of good stuff from the first couple of decades of the 20th century, which featured some pretty extreme weather at times. Here is the site. It is incomplete for many stations. It is more complete the farther back in time that you go. It covers all of the southeastern states, even some that most don't consider the southeast. I don't in any way vouch for the accuracy of these numbers. http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Jan was a warm month with less than 2 inches of snow. Feb was colder than normal with 5.6 or so, we ended up with 9.5 inches of snow at DCA. It was not a good year. That was the year you tricked us by saying the vd storm would be like the feb 83 Hecs #neverforget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not sure why they would use 06. Dec of 06 was a record high AO month with a 2.282 monthly. It was also a Nino year and had a big area of low heights in the pac where we are seeing a big ridge now. If anything 06 is an opposite analog. I agree Bob. I just plotted the pattern from Nov. 25 to Dec 4 of 2006, and it is quite different from what we've seen this year for the same dates. Not sure why it's listed. It's their number 1 analog in both the 5 day mean and 7 day. I even plotted the exact day that they list and it looks nothing like this year. Maybe I'm just not seeing what they are comparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That was the year you tricked us by saying the vd storm would be like the feb 83 Hecs #neverforget I usually remember my fails but don't remember that one. You sure it was me and not DT? I'm usually pretty circumspect about forecasting big storms and think I would be slow to talk and compare a stomr with 1983. Of course I'm gettin old so my memory may not be that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 18z Gfs is horrendous Damn lakes cutter after lakes cutter.I think there were 4 or 5 just in that run alone. At least we wont be in a drought come spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 18z Gfs is horrendous other than nailing the 2/06 storm 5 days out, I really don't believe humping the 18z GFS ever got anyone anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here is the site. It is incomplete for many stations. It is more complete the farther back in time that you go. It covers all of the southeastern states, even some that most don't consider the southeast. I don't in any way vouch for the accuracy of these numbers. http://www.sercc.com...historical.html Thanks, man. I have visited that site before, and its excellent for climate data. I particularly like that they have the record values for each day of the year. What I've been searching for is daily records for areas around us, to compare dates where the MRB data I have seems incorrect. Even in the NCDC set, you'll come across dates listed with 8" of snowfall, but only 0.18" pcp. Or small snow accumulations reported for days when the max/min was 59/42 The Utah site is outstanding for this type of data, but the COOP sites it lists around Winchester have either short periods of record or sizeable gaps in between years of reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean really digs a big west-based -NAO in the long range. We're going to need that to have a prayer for cold/snow with the also significant -PNA it's advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 That was the year you tricked us by saying the vd storm would be like the feb 83 Hecs #neverforget Actually Ji, I remember things differently than you do and now do remember mentioning 1983 but in the contest of not giving up on the snow potential of the pattern in the day 3 or 4 range when the models were calling for rain and we ended up getting snow. I don't think I ever said it would be a 1983 type storm. I actually look at that call as being a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Ji is starting his transition into 100% troll. He'll probably be banned by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I almost called him out but his selective memory is the stuff that used to get DT riled. In reality whether the call made in 2007 was a bust or not in his memory isn't that important and he's welcome to remember it any way he wants. He's not remembering it the way he stated. He's just trolling to get red-taggers riled up as Ian said. It's the "fun" of Ji. Edited to add: But still, he doesn't post all the time like some other members in the board. I still marvel at the patience of the meteorologists in the New England sub-forum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 other than nailing the 2/06 storm 5 days out, I really don't believe humping the 18z GFS ever got anyone anywhere It nailed Sandy 10 days out... hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I almost called him out but his selective memory is the stuff that used to get DT riled. In reality whether the call made in 2007 was a bust or not in his memory isn't that important and he's welcome to remember it any way he wants. Were you even posting in 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I usually remember my fails but don't remember that one. You sure it was me and not DT? I'm usually pretty circumspect about forecasting big storms and think I would be slow to talk and compare a stomr with 1983. Of course I'm gettin old so my memory may not be that great. I think JI might be engaging is sping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I thought you commented on it, I probably mixed you up with Leesburg or someone else. They were actually made comments in a joking manner ..Bob, I found 8 (I think) of your 18 years to have a rpna and neg AO and posted the worst outcome for the month. The others were not as bad and ranged from normal to below normal. I think the 1st half of Dec is pretty much lost. As to the 1961 analog, none of the 10 dates for the superens mean from last night were from 1961 for what that is worth. The 360 GFS ebs neab looks somewhat interesting with the low heights over New England suggesting that the west based nao may be exerting itself. That is what happened during the bulk of your neg pna, neg nao years so it's probably going to eventually happen. IThe euro has a closed 500h blocking high that is still east of where we want it at 240 hrs but it probably will retrogress somewhere down the line. The Pacific still is a problem suggesting storms would have to be weak or reform after tracking to the OH balley. Anyway that's my quick take on the subject though I really didn't look at it for very long as I've been visiting with friends from AZ all day. Not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Were you even posting in 2006? I think so and think I dredged up memories of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Not me My eyes....my eyes!!! Lol...good read..life goes on...at least Christmas isnt cancelled...unless of course the Mayans were right and H2O....who is probably who I was remembering but it was all in good fun. He posted a picture of a bunch of angry old ladies who were standing at a bus stop and posted this. You made these old ladies mad, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I think so and think I dredged up memories of the storm. You made the famous thread on Eastern about possible thundersnow in DC right before the Feb 2006 storm. I recall a lot of people claiming bust as the early part of the event was light rain before changing to heavy snow. Ji then proceeded to sleep through the most intense part of that storm...probably why he doesn't remember it well, is mad, and is trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 You made the famous thread on Eastern about possible thundersnow in DC right before the Feb 2006 storm. I recall a lot of people claiming bust as the early part of the event was light rain before changing to heavy snow. Ji then proceeded to sleep through the most intense part of that storm...probably why he doesn't remember it well, is mad, and is trolling. My memory of it though vague was that it was a pretty good call but memories are tricky things and in the grand scheme of things, it's not that important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Actually Ji, I remember things differently than you do and now do remember mentioning 1983 but in the contest of not giving up on the snow potential of the pattern in the day 3 or 4 range when the models were calling for rain and we ended up getting snow. I don't think I ever said it would be a 1983 type storm. I actually look at that call as being a success. i remember you were hesitant to give the analog of the storm you were thinking about but you finally did 3-4 days you said before the storm was suppose to hit when the GFS was showing 20 inches of snow for us. The models had us getting snow until the last 3 days when they switched to ice. Had it been all snow...we would of gotten 20 or so inches. Instead we got 5 inches of cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 My memory of it though vague was that it was a pretty good call but memories are tricky things and in the grand scheme of things, it's not that important. i have a really good memory for stupid stuff and i know you mentioned at some point that Feb 1983 was a potential analog for the VD 2007 storm. It wasnt that far off based except it didnt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 i have a really good memory for stupid stuff and i know you mentioned at some point that Feb 1983 was a potential analog for the VD 2007 storm. It wasnt that far off based except it didnt snow Sometimes i cannot even believe Wes still engages you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 hopefully with this big block...we can see future runs take the storm more south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 hopefully with this big block...we can see future runs take the storm more south and east you referring to the "BIG BLOCK" over Cuba or Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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