mattie g Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 pretty much...but the 20-25th period is starting to look a lot more interesting if you set the bar low...and just want some sort of accumulating snow.....I like Sunday the 23rd for a snowstorm....since it is fun to throw out dates and then claim...I was correct!!....so yeah....we are going to have a 2-5" snowstorm on Sunday 12/23 First legitimate snow chances will be between December 21-28. I can feel it. We've suffered enough since 2009-2010, so we're going to get Christmastime love in 2012 as payback for the last two years. If it comes to fruition, I want a pink tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'd trade a season's worth of snow for a white Christmas... in a second. Fingers crossed for the 23 - 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm not as impressed with the potential as wxusaf with the 06Z GEFS ens mean. It's really hard to get a system to go to our south without some hint of riding over the west as an impulse comes towards us. Last night's CPC D+11 was pretty discouraging as it still has a semblance of a southeast ridge even with a nice negative anomaly near nova scotia. It also has too much negative anomaly across the northern tier which suggests low pass to our north. For kicks I looked at the 10 analog dates and they were really discouraging if you like snow. The closest snow was either 5 days prior to the centered or 7 day beyond it. All the other dates the closest snow date was so far way to suggest there would be no snow within the analog window which is centered on Dec 18th. I also looked at the neg PNA...strongly neg AO years using Bob's data set and the best analog for the month so far is probably 1961 and there were no 1" or greater events that Dec. Note the year that had a 1 inch or greater on the slide above popped a ridge slong the west coast. The daily for that storm actually has a southern stream look to it. Also compare last night's 240 hr GEFS ens mean to the 1961 analog. It's not a bad match but a discouraging one as it supports the idea that snow will be hard to come by for dc through dec 21st or so assuming the ens mean is half right. That's a big assumption that snow lovers can grasp onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Good post Wes, I agree. It is also possible that the GEFS is too aggressive with the west-based idea and that would further increase the probability of getting little snow in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Wes, looks like the dreaded SE Ridge is trying to show up on your maps as well. Seems more La Nina-ish than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Good post Wes, I agree. It is also possible that the GEFS is too aggressive with the west-based idea and that would further increase the probability of getting little snow in the Mid Atlantic. I think the GEFS western based nao may also be too aggressive and like the euro ens mean look better. For us snow lovers, it's bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Wes, looks like the dreaded SE Ridge is trying to show up on your maps as well. Seems more La Nina-ish than anything else. The euro also gives hints of that ridge (a weak positive anomaly over srn FL). The farther the positive anomaly associated with the NOA ends up, the stronger the southeast ridge will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I think the GEFS western based nao may also be too aggressive and like the euro ens mean look better. For us snow lovers, it's bad look. Despite the lame looking weeklies, there is some encouraging news from the ECMWF ensembles in the stratosphere. This "Canadian Warming" (CW) coming looks legitimate and manages to displace the vortex into Asia. However, the vortex will also be strengthening as this happens so I'm not sure if this displacement lasts long and it comes right back to the pole. If the wave assault can continue doing this, it may be fair to compare the stratosphere to 68-69 like some have done. There are definitely analogs that suggest the stratosphere will become disrupted in January, enough so that we see snow and cold too. I think these wave 1 attacks and back and forth hybrid attacks take longer to do the job. But I'm already impressed with how this first set of legit waves managed to displace the vortex and allow for an AO tanking. But an AO tanking don't mean shiat if everything else sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Wes, looks like the dreaded SE Ridge is trying to show up on your maps as well. Seems more La Nina-ish than anything else. ENSO is neutral, we are coming out of a 2 year cold phase and the PDO region looks awful and supports an Aleutian ridge...none of this is surprising..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Despite the lame looking weeklies, there is some encouraging news from the ECMWF ensembles in the stratosphere. This "Canadian Warming" (CW) coming looks legitimate and manages to displace the vortex into Asia. However, the vortex will also be strengthening as this happens so I'm not sure if this displacement lasts long and it comes right back to the pole. If the wave assault can continue doing this, it may be fair to compare the stratosphere to 68-69 like some have done. There are definitely analogs that suggest the stratosphere will become disrupted in January, enough so that we see snow and cold too. I think these wave 1 attacks and back and forth hybrid attacks take longer to do the job. But I'm already impressed with how this first set of legit waves managed to displace the vortex and allow for an AO tanking. But an AO tanking don't mean shiat if everything else sucks... That's what I tried to show with all the stats that DT did not like in some of my earlier CWG articles. There are plenty of low snow years that were dominated by a negative AO. A neg AO is way better than a positive one but still produce low snow years. More often than nor however, they also yield some cold in our area but even with cold, there is no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 I think the GEFS western based nao may also be too aggressive and like the euro ens mean look better. For us snow lovers, it's bad look. The OP GFS has already pretty much abandoned ship the last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The OP GFS has already pretty much abandoned ship the last few runs I'm surprised no one (Ji) has posted the 264 hr GFS as it has a low going off the NC coast with the 850 temp being bleow freezing and the 2m temp in the mid 30s. It's not likely to be right but that usually doesn't matter to those loving the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm surprised no one (Ji) has posted the 264 hr GFS as it has a low going off the NC coast with the 850 temp being bleow freezing and the 2m temp in the mid 30s. It's not likely to be right but that usually doesn't matter to those loving the chase. Fun to look at but with the trough already going negative tilted back in Texas it is hard to get excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Fun to look at but with the trough already going negative tilted back in Texas it is hard to get excited about it. You guys are getting more sophisticated all the time. Looks to me based on the 500 that the low is more likely to be an OH valley storm but at that time range but at that time range all storms are fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Good post Wes, I agree. It is also possible that the GEFS is too aggressive with the west-based idea and that would further increase the probability of getting little snow in the Mid Atlantic. Lol...SNE gets a nut graze shot....we get a full on blow square in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 There is nothing to push the SE ridge out to sea. Need something like 2010 with a displaced PV under a strong block. The block looks like it will be there but no major low south of it to get the cold air into the area. I hope we can keep the west based block for the majority of the winter. Once we get to Jan/Feb climo says with that block in place most moisture should be snow. We dont have to get a bomb for a decent event. Just a nice overrunner would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 so winter cancel? I think we will have a chance in Jan/Feb, all we need is the Pacific to not be in godawful phase, and keep the atlantic where it is...and January could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 12z Euro looks like its setting up something interesting in that time frame as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I think we will have a chance in Jan/Feb, all we need is the Pacific to not be in godawful phase, and keep the atlantic where it is...and January could be good. aka the pattern change is only 15 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 12z Euro looks like its setting up something interesting in that time frame as well Takes the low farther north than the GFS, but would possibly be a CAD setup with confluence and a cold high over Ontario. Certainly a timeframe to keep an eye on, but hard to imagine a purely snow event for our area given the larger pattern. CT Rain helpfully posted the MJO teleconnection for Phase 1 in December. Euro ensembles forecast the MJO to move into Phase 1 and that teleconnects to a good pattern for us (+PNA, -NAO, east coast trough). Of course, the Euro ensembles look nothing like that through 10 days at least. But, still suggests the pattern will get shaken up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I know it is frustrating but sometimes the pattern does change. We have had years where we got barely anything before Christmas and then ended up with at least a respectable snowfall season. People remember 2006/7 as crappy but consider the change in the pattern that year. We torched until late January and then it was very cold and storm after that. We just missed several significant snows. One storm stayed suppressed, and then of course there was the V-day storm. If either of those had hit our area with 10"+ we would remember that as a great year. Sometimes you need a little luck on top of a favorable pattern, but to write off the entire season because things have not gone well the first week of meterological winter is a little crazy. Especially when we do have some things working for us this year, mostly the setup in the Atlantic. Its true the Pac is crap but we just have to time up a relaxation of the PNA with the favorable NAO/AO and we could get a very nice pattern for a time. Its not impossible or a futile waiting game like last year when it was all crap. You know I am generally a glass is half empty kinda guy so I would not blow smoke... we really do have potential for a better pattern as this season evolves...give it some time. aka the pattern change is only 15 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Takes the low farther north than the GFS, but would possibly be a CAD setup with confluence and a cold high over Ontario. Certainly a timeframe to keep an eye on, but hard to imagine a purely snow event for our area given the larger pattern. CT Rain helpfully posted the MJO teleconnection for Phase 1 in December. Euro ensembles forecast the MJO to move into Phase 1 and that teleconnects to a good pattern for us (+PNA, -NAO, east coast trough). Of course, the Euro ensembles look nothing like that through 10 days at least. But, still suggests the pattern will get shaken up. The euro looks like a miller b type set up with the low too far north for us at least through 216 hrs. While I'm not wild about the pattern, there have been snowstorms with a negative PNA so they aren't impossible to get. The euro does look like it is pulling the block west across Greenland which is good. It will be interesting to see how the euro ens mean handles that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The euro looks like a miller b type set up with the low too far north for us at least through 216 hrs. While I'm not wild about the pattern, there have been snowstorms with a negative PNA so they aren't impossible to get. The euro does look like it is pulling the block west across Greenland which is good. It will be interesting to see how the euro ens mean handles that feature. Thats the day 9 event. I was speaking more towards what happens beyond the Euro time frame. It looked to be setting up for the day 11? 12 event the GFS is advertising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Thats the day 9 event. I was speaking more towards what happens beyond the Euro time frame. It looked to be setting up for the day 11? 12 event the GFS is advertising Extrapolating based on a day 10 model run out to day 11 or 12 is risky stuff in such a fast flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Extrapolating based on a day 10 model run out to day 11 or 12 is risky stuff in such a fast flow pattern. Oh of course.... definitely nothing to count on, but is nice to see atleast some semblance of agreement between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Been too busy to really look at guidance but from a quick glance it looks like both the gfs and euro retrograde the pac ridge west (d10ish) and an area of lower heights and associated trough take it's place. A bit convoluted down stream but with a -nao asserting itself we would potentially get some sort of overrunning event with any energy that tracks through the 4 corners area. Would have to think that any type of closed ull or surface low would track west of us. Maybe an open wave can just glide to the south of us. I'm probably reaching here but the pattern doesn't look "impossible". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Been too busy to really look at guidance but from a quick glance it looks like both the gfs and euro retrograde the pac ridge west (d10ish) and an area of lower heights and associated trough take it's place. A bit convoluted down stream but with a -nao asserting itself we would potentially get some sort of overrunning event with any energy that tracks through the 4 corners area. Would have to think that any type of closed ull or surface low would track west of us. Maybe an open wave can just glide to the south of us. I'm probably reaching here but the pattern doesn't look "impossible". It's not impossible but not great either. If you look at the 264 hr indivula member 500h forecasts you can see how much solutions can vary at that time range. Even in a not great pattern you can sometimes thread the needle. Heck there have been neg pna snowstorms just a lot fewer than pos pna ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It's not impossible but not great either. If you look at the 264 hr indivula member 500h forecasts you can see how much solutions can vary at that time range. Even in a not great pattern you can sometimes thread the needle. Heck there have been neg pna snowstorms just a lot fewer than pos pna ones. Yea, not great or even good but at least not impossible. Sometimes little storms just sneak up on us. I suppose other than having a weak wave traverse the conus and glide south we could get some sort of trailing energy lagging on a front that passes with one of the cutters. That's another way we could get "something". So far I haven't seen anything indicative of that but that sort of thing generally doesn't appear until d5+/-. The 264hr gfs threat doesn't even bear watching (not that we should watch fine details in that range anyway). The fact that the storm before and after both track to our west isn't exactly indicative of a good pattern. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yea, not great or even good but at least not impossible. Sometimes little storms just sneak up on us. I suppose other than having a weak wave traverse the conus and glide south we could get some sort of trailing energy lagging on a front that passes with one of the cutters. That's another way we could get "something". So far I haven't seen anything indicative of that but that sort of thing generally doesn't appear until d5+/-. The 264hr gfs threat doesn't even bear watching (not that we should watch fine details in that range anyway). The fact that the storm before and after both track to our west isn't exactly indicative of a good pattern. lol That's the logic I don't get. If the threat isn't worth watching, then neither is the pattern being modeled. It's not like the computer that spit out the storm solution is unaware of the global pattern around it. There's lots of solutions on the table at 264 hours. Every ens member isn't going to have the storm. We use the means to make decisions about the upcoming weather so we have to take the possible solutions being given by the computers as possible solutions otherwise the mean isn't possible either. Now, is it likely? No. But neither are any of the single solutions being cranked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I know it is frustrating but sometimes the pattern does change. We have had years where we got barely anything before Christmas and then ended up with at least a respectable snowfall season. People remember 2006/7 as crappy but consider the change in the pattern that year. We torched until late January and then it was very cold and storm after that. We just missed several significant snows. One storm stayed suppressed, and then of course there was the V-day storm. If either of those had hit our area with 10"+ we would remember that as a great year. Sometimes you need a little luck on top of a favorable pattern, but to write off the entire season because things have not gone well the first week of meterological winter is a little crazy. Especially when we do have some things working for us this year, mostly the setup in the Atlantic. Its true the Pac is crap but we just have to time up a relaxation of the PNA with the favorable NAO/AO and we could get a very nice pattern for a time. Its not impossible or a futile waiting game like last year when it was all crap. You know I am generally a glass is half empty kinda guy so I would not blow smoke... we really do have potential for a better pattern as this season evolves...give it some time. I know, I know. More than anything, I try to add a little levity to the discussion by joking around, if only because I know fairly little compared to many of you guys. This was just an attempt at a little dark humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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