WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 What Bob said. There was a ~24hr period a few days ago when the modeling all looked quite good. That was preceeded by several days of generally warm-looking runs, and that was preceeded by when we still thought December would be really cold. The warm-look model runs have been winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I was messing around with my various data lists looking at the -ao / -pna combo. I was trying to find a enso neutral year with a similar pac ridge that seems all but imminent now and I came across 1961. It's not a perfect fit but compare the h5 anom map for the first half of Dec 1961 to the progs on the gfs and euro. Definitely similar in some important ways: Dec 1961 was pretty warm along the ec during the first half of the month. A lot of the + departures were erased because the pattern flipped nicely during the second half: You can never find perfect matches but the first half of 61 has some distinct similarities to the progged pattern. 1961 was on my -ao list and had a Dec monthly of -1.668. PNA came in at -1.24 for the month. From everything I've been reading from met posts is that this Dec prob won't flip but I don't think we can simply rule it out at this point. Especially late in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Bob, 11/61 had 3.2" and 12/61 had 7.2" at BWI hmmmm, I don't think those 60's analogs work very well, and I mean any of them because of the change in everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Bob, 11/61 had 3.2" and 12/61 had 7.2" at BWI hmmmm, I don't think those 60's analogs work very well, and I mean any of them because of the change in everything Just an exercise in pattern recognition. I don't like the 60's too much either. 1961 and 1996 both featured the relatively unusual combo of a -ao/nao/pna. 61 seemed to have the best match in the pac so it a decent comparison. . Just because I'm bored and there is nothing to chase I put together an animation of Dec 61. Kinda weird evolution because it's in six 5 day panels but the general idea is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Just an exercise in pattern recognition. I don't like the 60's too much either. 1961 and 1996 both featured the relatively unusual combo of a -ao/nao/pna. 61 seemed to have the best match in the pac so it a decent comparison. . Just because I'm bored and there is nothing to chase I put together an animation of Dec 61. Kinda weird evolution because it's in six 5 day panels but the general idea is there. Bob can you link me to the site that allows you to plot that map? The link I have only allows me to do back to 1980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 A much colder look on the 18z GFS. Are there changes upstream from 12z? Interesting gulf low develops on 12/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Bob can you link me to the site that allows you to plot that map? The link I have only allows me to do back to 1980 No prob: http://www.esrl.noaa...composites/day/ Be careful though. This site is a SERIOUS time suck. lol There are a bunch of free gif animators online so if you plot a time series that you like you can easily put it in motion without having to learn anything complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 No prob: http://www.esrl.noaa...composites/day/ Be careful though. This site is a SERIOUS time suck. lol There are a bunch of free gif animators online so if you plot a time series that you like you can easily put it in motion without having to learn anything complicated. Bob, thanks. I plotted this year Nov. 15 to Dec. 3, then used the CPC analogs of 1966 and 1970 to plot those Nov. 15 to Dec. 15 and then the corresponding Dec. 15 to Feb 15. Both years switched to a colder pattern. They also used 1973 as an analog. It is of note that all 3 years were good snow years in Winchester (for the data that I have). I also did your 1961-1962 same time period. I am going to post the images, and since I'm not smart enough to know how to post them in one post, I'll post them in seperate posts. Here's this year from Nov 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here's your year 1961-1962 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here's 1966-1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 And finally here's 1970-1971. Don't know if it means jack, but I guess there's still plenty of time for a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 anyone have a link to the CFS2 that was updated today? every link I have only has the Saturday 12/1 update anyone suspect foul play, or maybe just too ugly for weenie eyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 anyone have a link to the CFS2 that was updated today?every link I have only has the Saturday 12/1 update anyone suspect foul play, or maybe just too ugly for weenie eyes? I am sure there are better ones, but below are for Jan.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I am sure there are better ones, but below are for Jan.... http://www.cpc.ncep....v2FCST/monthly/ thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I am sure there are better ones, but below are for Jan.... http://www.cpc.ncep....v2FCST/monthly/ Not sure if I'm reading these correctly...but as of the latest available, that's showing a high probability of above average 2m temps right? And slightly above normal chances of above normal precip? For January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not sure if I'm reading these correctly...but as of the latest available, that's showing a high probability of above average 2m temps right? And slightly above normal chances of above normal precip? For January. It does. And if you click on the "Weekly mean forecast" at the bottom of the page you can get the weekly forecast for the next 4 weeks. As of 2-3 days ago it was showing the end of December colder than normal and now the past couple of days it has backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It does. And if you click on the "Weekly mean forecast" at the bottom of the page you can get the weekly forecast for the next 4 weeks. As of 2-3 days ago it was showing the end of December colder than normal and now the past couple of days it has backed off. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS trying to be funny...last two runs trying to get cool/cold...eh....i will take seasonal through Christmas if we can get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS trying to be funny...last two runs trying to get cool/cold...eh....i will take seasonal through Christmas if we can get it 00z had some serious nao block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Gfs end means take those higher heights and push them closer to the west coast and connect the low heights from western Canada all the way through to the Atlantic much like what happened in those analog years I posted. Euro trying to do the same, just not there yet. The euro has some serious cold up in Canada. Like to see some of it get loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Gfs end means take those higher heights and push them closer to the west coast and connect the low heights from western Canada all the way through to the Atlantic much like what happened in those analog years I posted. Euro trying to do the same, just not there yet. The euro has some serious cold up in Canada. Like to see some of it get loose. yep click on this link to see it thru Day 10 on the Euro http://www.ecmwf.int...2120500!!!step/ wonder what happens after that (if it's right, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm skeptical about the gfs. -pna in place and big ridge basically in the same place on the pac. It's all -nao driving and that's a monster -nao. Guidance looking like -3 sd's. If the blocking in gl is weaker or a bit further east then we still stuck with relatively flat flow and raging pac jet. Not saying the gfs is wrong but with the unfavorable ridge place in the pac too much can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Interestingly enough I just compared the 0z gfs 11-15 day 500 anom map to the Dec 15-30 period of 1961.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 gotta' admit, they look awfully close Bob can we cash in like that winter is the big question....the answer to which I have a strong "hunch" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 gotta' admit, they look awfully close Bob can we cash in like that winter is the big question....the answer to which I have a strong "hunch" lol Playing along in the game, unless my quick look was too quick, DCA had 15" that winter and Baltimore had 35". I can't remember when BWI became the official station so not sure where that 35 was recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 gotta' admit, they look awfully close Bob can we cash in like that winter is the big question....the answer to which I have a strong "hunch" lol Who knows right? I only care about getting us out of the current pattern into something with more potential. Most importantly getting far away from 70 degree afternoon highs. It's tough to get snow in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiOrDie Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looking more and more like the key to this winter is going to be getting the PNA/EPO to behave. The placement and strength of the ridge in the Pacific is driving the pattern right now. Just too much jet pounding into the west coast, and when it gets east immediately erases the southern edge of any eastern trough that develops. I know the second half of Dec looks good on the models, but I'm not falling for any eastern trough while there's still a misbehaving Pac ridge on those maps. Get that thing to set up over the Rockies and then we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Playing along in the game, unless my quick look was too quick, DCA had 15" that winter and Baltimore had 35". I can't remember when BWI became the official station so not sure where that 35 was recorded. Sounds like it may have been a northern stream-dominated winter. Is my hunch correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looking more and more like the key to this winter is going to be getting the PNA/EPO to behave. The placement and strength of the ridge in the Pacific is driving the pattern right now. Just too much jet pounding into the west coast, and when it gets east immediately erases the southern edge of any eastern trough that develops. I know the second half of Dec looks good on the models, but I'm not falling for any eastern trough while there's still a misbehaving Pac ridge on those maps. Get that thing to set up over the Rockies and then we'll be in business. Without strong ENSO signal, other factors will play a big riole, and it's looking like the (bad) Pacific is taking over for now. A big negative AO and NAO will help, but the Pacific is really flexing its muscles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm skeptical about the gfs. -pna in place and big ridge basically in the same place on the pac. It's all -nao driving and that's a monster -nao. Guidance looking like -3 sd's. If the blocking in gl is weaker or a bit further east then we still stuck with relatively flat flow and raging pac jet. Not saying the gfs is wrong but with the unfavorable ridge place in the pac too much can go wrong. Bob, what I was saying is that the ens of both models seem to try and move those pos height anomalies closer to the west coast. That would have to help I would think. That boomerang of neg height anomalies from western Canada across the US and the Atlantic shown in your 1961 analog is exactly what the GFS end shows beyond about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.