Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

SPC "focusing" on Tue for now tho only 5% so far. If the GFS is right with the vort passing by tomorrow I think we'll get slight risked as well. Timing is tough as always in NW flow.

...NRN PLAINS TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAY LEAD TO POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF

STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DOMINANT UPPER

RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH

MORE SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY

TUESDAY. LATEST THINKING IS A RESERVOIR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY

EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS A CORRIDOR FROM THE NRN

PLAINS...THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. AS A

RESULT...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS ZONE...SOME OF

WHICH MAY BE AIDED BY LATE DAY2 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES THAT WILL BE

EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT/LOCATE AT 60HR.

ONE FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE THAT HAS BEEN HANDLED CONSISTENTLY

WITHIN THE GUIDANCE IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS SRN AB

INTO SRN SK BY 25/12Z. LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD GLANCE THE NRN

HIGH PLAINS LATE WHICH COULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IF CAP IS

SUFFICIENTLY WEAK. THE ONLY OTHER AREA WHERE PREDICTABLE FORCING

MAY OCCUR IS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING

MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN THE BASE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SURGE SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO

VA/MD DURING THE DAY AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED ALONG THIS

BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WHILE POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY

WOULD OTHERWISE FAVOR STRONG CONVECTION THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE

UNCERTAINTY AND WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Barometer going up for msot of last 12 hours was sign that flow not giving up.

Models weren't too gung ho on clearing us out etc by this time yesterday for today.. gfs a bit too much so. Less of a bust than yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX via facebook

US National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington

Fun facts about Saturday's cool temperatures...

Daily record low maximum temperatures were set at DCA/BWI/IAD.

The last time in July the high temperature was this cool at DCA was July 26, 2002, when it also reached 71F.

The last time in July the high temperature was this cool at BWI was July 29, 2001, when it also reached 69F.

The last time in July the high temperature was this cool at IAD was July 29, 2001, when the high temperature reached only 66F.

With the daily low temperature of 67F at DCA, there was only 4 degrees separating the high from the low. There have only been 10 other times on record in July where this diurnal difference between high and low temperatures was 4 degrees or less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a good chance for storms this afternoon/evening down to southern MD and central VA. 1000-2000 SFC CAPE already in place... expecting that to double to 2000-4000+ J/kg later today. Wind shear isn't great but it's better than what we've seen recently.

I'm almost tempted to chase today in PA, but I'm not a huge fan of the low-mid level atmosphere.

EDIT: Just checked the SPC update and they have added the greater DC region to the Slight Risk for wind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...