Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Dave as in DT that is... throwing out derecho for tomorrow for W VA and VA on his FB page it's possible... remember there are like 30 derechos a yr if we want to get technical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 wrf nmm gives us 2 rounds of storms in dc area.. 21z-0zish then 6z-9zish. arw likes the first round at least and looks better for tomorrow.. tho it's hard to say the best won't try to go south of dc area tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012VAZ044-045-058-059-231845-CAMPBELL VA-CHARLOTTE VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX ANDPITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...AT 145 PM EDT...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OFHURT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS HEAVY SNOWSHOWERS.THIS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MT AIRY AROUND 200 PM...STRAIGHTSTONE AROUND 205 PM...CODY AROUND 215 PM...LEDA AROUND 220PM...BROOKNEAL AROUND 230 PM AND NATHALIE AROUND 240 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 d2 added us into slight further north ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT MID-LEVEL NWLYS AOA 30 KT WILL OVERSPREAD THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS ON TUE. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM...REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE DAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 100 F IN PARTS OF VA/NC. THIS STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850-500 MB NWLYS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 wrf nmm gives us 2 rounds of storms in dc area.. 21z-0zish then 6z-9zish. arw likes the first round at least and looks better for tomorrow.. tho it's hard to say the best won't try to go south of dc area tomorrow. New HRRR gets the first round here a little later, more like 01z. I haven't gone back, but the last two runs are better the further north you are. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012VAZ044-045-058-059-231845-CAMPBELL VA-CHARLOTTE VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX ANDPITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...AT 145 PM EDT...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OFHURT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS HEAVY SNOWSHOWERS.THIS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MT AIRY AROUND 200 PM...STRAIGHTSTONE AROUND 205 PM...CODY AROUND 215 PM...LEDA AROUND 220PM...BROOKNEAL AROUND 230 PM AND NATHALIE AROUND 240 PM. If only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 New HRRR gets the first round here a little later, more like 01z. I haven't gone back, but the last two runs are better the further north you are. Seems consistent from what it was showing early this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 QPF forcast looking nicer for us in VA. We need the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Whoops. NOUS61 KCTP 230248 FTMCCX Message Date: Jul 23 2012 02:48:27 KCCX WSR-88D HAS FAILED. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME UNKNOWN. NOUS61 KCTP 231656 FTMCCX Message Date: Jul 23 2012 16:56:24 ONGOING ISSUES AT KCCX CONTINUE. TECHS ARE ON SITE ATTEMPTING TO RECITFY THE PRO BLEM. THE RADAR MAY BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Kinda doubt this, but would be interesting to see if RAP is correct in its 6 hr prog on the sup map on the SPC meso page... lights up the sup probs form OH Valley east into N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Either the RAP is being hilarious, or those are some disturbing 6 hr progs in WV for 0100z... Ian/Ellinwood/MN/wxmeddler/WxUSAF... how good are the progs used on the SPC meso page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Either the RAP is being hilarious, or those are some disturbing 6 hr progs in WV for 0100z... Ian/Ellinwood/MN/wxmeddler/WxUSAF... how good are the progs used on the SPC meso page? Gets OH up to 36 SUP COMP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Either the RAP is being hilarious, or those are some disturbing 6 hr progs in WV for 0100z... Ian/Ellinwood/MN/wxmeddler/WxUSAF... how good are the progs used on the SPC meso page? it sure looks overdone.. it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Gets OH up to 36 SUP COMP. I am sure it means nothing... but check the sig tor effective layer... dont usually see those numbers anywhere near here... and yes I know its in NW WV Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 it sure looks overdone.. it probably is. Agree... but its been doing that and getting larger with stuff out there... 3rd straight hour of increasing probs... probably is/means nothng as you say, just very intriguing to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Agree... but its been doing that and getting larger with stuff out there... 3rd straight hour of increasing probs... probably is/means nothng as you say, just very intriguing to see Looked at Earls screw T for nam and it has 70% supercell comp overnight around here. Hopefully something starts to form soon over that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 supercell comp of 36, sig tor effective layers of 10, that's likely some overdone numbers, but it's pretty rare to see these numbers, i honestly think there will be some supercells storms this evening in OH/WV/PA area, just take a look at the supercells up in NY already with weaker shear, and they are dropping hail to baseballs, This Evening and Overnight looks really interesting for OH/PA/WV/VA/MD areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Guess we will see what SPC says in about 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Guess we will see what SPC says in about 5 minutes. Not much... but 2% TOR was nudged our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Well IDK what to think of the update. 5% tornado remains but the wording for that area is less than interesting and 2% was expanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Well IDK what to think of the update. 5% tornado remains but the wording for that area is less than interesting and 2% was expanded. Personally i think, there are too many uncertainties, but i something fires up i could get interesting, well i am thinking storms will fire up, the SPC says additional storm areas are uncertain, but i am in Pittsburgh Metro, and it's sunny and clear out, and humid, If something forms i say E OH/ W PA, then it will form into a line and move into mountains then east/southeast into Virginia/Maryland overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 im honestly not sure why those numbers would be so high to the west but it's pretty i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 wv might not make it thru the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 im honestly not sure why those numbers would be so high to the west but it's pretty i guess The RAP has a nice area of helicity and shear moving into the WV/OH border area, which feeds directly into the Supercell Composite Parameters. No idea if the shear numbers are good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 wv might not make it thru the summer I kind of like it developing over us. Sometimes fun stuff happens early in the cell/line lifecycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I kind of like it developing over us. Sometimes fun stuff happens early in the cell/line lifecycle. Hopefully we can just get it to be a bit north of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 wv might not make it thru the summer I'd get smacked pretty good here in Western VA if that were to come true.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Remember 6/29 we all thought might edge a bit south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Prob want to see something firing soon... Ahh convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Prob want to see something firing soon... Ahh convection Faith in tomorrow :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Prob want to see something firing soon... Ahh convection I don't think that we're going to get anything today, maybe some extra late night elevated rumblers. There's always tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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