Ian Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 supercell/sig tor numbers are pretty high but not as high as forecast. wasted either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 I'm not really sure on tomorrow other than to say I don't think we'll get in on the "derecho" in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 I think I'm going to hope for lots of sun and to see storms fire early with time to mature before getting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I'm not really sure on tomorrow other than to say I don't think we'll get in on the "derecho" in the DC area. 00z upstream soundings at KPIT and ILN look pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 wv might not make it thru the summer That isn't no lie. My main facility in N WV was out of power and internet access for a week. We're just now getting reports and paperwork caught up. I don't want to go through that mess again. This evening was a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Lots of rain in Pocahontas County over the past week... we were in a drought so the ground was able to soak up a good bit of it, but now with the ground saturated we might start to see some more issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 From the RNK WRF. 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 From the LWX 4KM WRF-ARW Run (LAPS Hot Start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 0600 Day 1 -- 2% TOR (DC south) 15% hail for all LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 This sounds a bit familiar... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES WWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SVR WX DAY AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH MOD-STG INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 24/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOST PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...EXPECT SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS REGION. SVR TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 KTS ALONG THE MID-ATL COAST TO 45-50 KT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE PERPENDICULAR TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT WILL BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I think the SPC is bit too far south, at this time i see the best MCS (possibly a derecho) will form in N OH/N IN in the morning, and head ESE, into WV/PA then MD/VA, looking at the soundings out of KPIT , conditions tomorrow look right for a nasty wind event, with hail/isolated tornado or two possible, i won't be surprised if we see a Moderate Risk when ingredients get panned out, like June 29th i remember being in a 5% risk in the morning then go to 45% wind and hatched, and we have to watch Thursday, most active week since late june Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I think the SPC is bit too far south, at this time i see the best MCS (possibly a derecho) will form in N OH/N IN in the morning, and head ESE, into WV/PA then MD/VA, looking at the soundings out of KPIT , conditions tomorrow look right for a nasty wind event, with hail/isolated tornado or two possible, i won't be surprised if we see a Moderate Risk when ingredients get panned out, like June 29th i remember being in a 5% risk in the morning then go to 45% wind and hatched, and we have to watch Thursday, most active week since late june Maybe but models continue to shift it further south into deep southern VA and NC. I cant see the areas you mention being hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Grasping at straws, I suppose, but both the WRF-NMM (NCEP) and HRRR have development beyond the MCS that dives down from Ohio through WV. The NMM takes a little cluster from Toledo through Pitt and then turns it into this: The 00z NAM was somewhat on board with bringing storms east, but the 06z NAM has shot that down. The locally run WRFs are shutouts for the DC/Balt metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 New HRRR - 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Smack dab in the middle of the 30% wind risk. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The line of storms that the HRRR has hitting MD/DC is forming up near Pittsburgh right now... one storm already has a severe warning on the northern tip of WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 death later? I have no idea, but I'm liking our chances for at least a cluster/line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Overcast here and it looks it will stay that way,,no chance of super heating. That first batch in Ohio gets to W WV early in the day. It probably will mess up the atmosphere for the stuff back around Chicago later this afternoon. CRW isn't getting too excited about it other than a lot of rain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I have no idea, but I'm liking our chances for at least a cluster/line of storms. Oh no. jinxed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Oh no. jinxed Not if this can hold together: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Not if this can hold together: I know. bright sunshine this AM has me thinking this will get things going sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The line of storms that the HRRR has hitting MD/DC is forming up near Pittsburgh right now... one storm already has a severe warning on the northern tip of WV. The timing is all wrong on the HRRR. The 09z run has nothing where the storms are right now. It doesn't pop them up by Pitt until noon, and then sends them through us by 3-5pm. If that little line holds together, it will be here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The timing is all wrong on the HRRR. The 09z run has nothing where the storms are right now. It doesn't pop them up by Pitt until noon, and then sends them through us by 3-5pm. If that little line holds together, it will be here in a few hours. Yeah, the timing is off, but it's got the general idea of the "where" at least. Storm motion's been pretty consistent, moving southeast at 40-45 mph. Looks like that front cell should be hitting the MD border in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 So looking like we get those pitt area storms earlyish and then we miss out on mass destruction from the derecho later? Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 12z IAD sounding - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Storms aren't looking too impressive on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Storms aren't looking too impressive on radar Indeed... I was just going to stay that the frontrunner storms aren't doing too good, but the one back NW of Cumberland has a nice bow to it. I'm hoping that one holds together and sneaks into MoCo later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Velo on the somerset county cell is impressive, indicates winds over 80mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 HWO mentions potential for "very damaging wind gusts" for Shenandoah Valley and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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