Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 92/71 at DCA 90/72 at IAD At least we are maintainning dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Actually, I like the development I'm seeing near Charleston the past few scans, though that probably won't effect a lot of you guys, but could be something for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 At least we are maintainning dews 73 at BWI. Pretty gross. Rather than mixing out, the dews are pretty much at the highs of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 yoda will be 18z Meso, except it all looks the same as 17 which isnt right lol something always changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am just waiting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding says from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am just waiting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding says from LWX Im going with: good mlcape, bad low level lapse rates, weakening shear in lowest 150mb. Overall: Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I give a 1.5 thumbs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Thought the clouds would have done more damage to the low level temps.. Still a weak cap at 1km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Im going with: good mlcape, bad low level lapse rates, weakening shear in lowest 150mb. Overall: Meh. Agree very much so, the lapse rates are lacking and thats whats hurting us. The storms in SC PA are not sustaining well, and parameters are sorta on the decrease once again. The shear is there but ot too much, I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 almost time to shift to thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I give a 1.5 thumbs up Overall not too bad, better than I expected thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I'm still ready to punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I'm still ready to punt +1 I'm getting ready to punt on the severe wx in the next hour, general T-Storms and sub severe hail and winds are still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Just don't like our ll shear and lapse rates, its unlikely severe occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 tempting to get the meh out Should have put it out when you were tempted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Should have put it out when you were tempted. when you meh early once or twice it makes you nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 almost time to shift to thursday For the 100° watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 For the 100° watch? that too. nam mos has 100! sw passing by late might spark something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 that too. nam mos has 100! sw passing by late might spark something.. I think the NAM is right, the 850 temps certainly are warm enough if we can keep away clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Welp, it's better than nothing -- looks like a decent cell diving south from central PA across the border into MD. Appears to have its sights set on DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 LWX AFD holding fast AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 314 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- SVR WX IN EFFECT UNTIL 0Z FOR ENTIRE CWA. SVRL AREAS OF FOCUSED CNVCTN IMPACTING RGN. LONG-LIVED AND SVR MCS DIVING THRU SRN WV AT 18Z LOOKS TO PASS MAINLY S/W OF CWA. SUPERCELL THAT IMPACTED POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAS EVOLVED INTO SE-MOVING STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL AFFECT CNTRL SHEN VLY...FOOTHILLS...AND PORTIONS OF VA PIEDMONT. N OF CWA...SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS INCRG IN INTENSITY/CVRG ACRS SRN PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC CDFNT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SAG SWD INTO CWA LATER THIS AFTN...LIKELY ORGANIZING FURTHER AS IT DOES. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS CWA. MORE WILL BE KNOWN WHEN ONGOING 18Z KIAD SOUNDG IS COMPLETED...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY IN 3-4KJ/KG. H8 INVRSN ACRS ERN ZONES HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY...BUT AS SHRTWV TROF AXIS MOVES E THIS AFTN...TEMPS ALOFT WILL FALL AND INHIBITION SHUD BE OVERCOME. ASIDE FROM THIS...SUBSTANTIAL AND PERSISTENT CLOUDCOVER IS MAIN FACTOR IN LACK OF ACTIVITY ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THRU ERY AFTN...AND CONTS TO BE SOURCE OF FCST UNCERTAINTY. WNW FLOW WILL ADVECT MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM PA TDA...AND STRONG M/ULVL WINDS PRODUCING SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT SVR WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL PSBL WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IN ANY RIGHT-MOVG SUPERCELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Cell went up quick down by Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 About to be slammed by a light rain shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Officially Punting the severe criteria (58mph or 1" Hail) for the DC Metro. Front is pushing through PA and W MD and stuff hasn't gotten it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 30% wind shifted way south on new outlook... not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 if the storm north of frederick can supercell out and turn right im in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 if the storm north of frederick can supercell out and turn right im in business Preparing for the Olympics by setting the bars high eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 if the storm north of frederick can supercell out and turn right im in business I am looking to be in the path of that if it holds. Will see. ETA: Just went out to get the mail and am hearing a lot of thunder to the N/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 if the storm north of frederick can supercell out and turn right im in business Well its not s supercell, but looks like it has turned south in the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 So DT's derecho wont be happening, poor guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.