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2012 NATL Tropical/hurricane forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Just wondering if Mallow intends to start his annual North Atlantic seasonal and monthly tropical / hurricane forecasting contest? (edit ... Mallow is in the building).

I suggest that we fill this thread with seasonal and June forecasts and figure out the scoring details in a few days. If Mallow decides to run the contest he can take over this thread. (edit, see Mallow's post later in the thread)

Just to get it started, I would say, post your seasonal prediction realizing that two named storms have already been tagged, and add a forecast for June. The order of your forecast numbers, as always, should be

Named storms / Hurricanes / Major (3+) Hurricanes

and if you weren't with us for last year, all of a storm's performance counts only in the month it is first named (GMT applies in end of month cases).

Since I posted a summer forecast with numbers, I will go with those to get this contest started.

21 / 13 / 7 seasonal

2 / 1 / 1 June

Usually we have a fairly strict deadline with penalties but I will stick my neck out and say, regardless of who organizes this, we can tolerate a 3-day extension to get the contest going, so entries would be due by the end of the day in the Eastern time zone on Sunday, June 3rd.

If an official thread is posted I will delete this one, after saving any forecasts made in it.

For anyone new to this, or with no memory of last year's contest, scores are assigned to seasonal forecasts that can be amended with each month's entry. The value of your seasonal forecast will drop off as we near the end point. An equal number of points (or something close to it) will be available for your monthly predictions. Your final score is the sum of the two parts of the contest.

If you miss a month or forget to update, your previous seasonal forecast carries over. You can always drop in with a monthly forecast ahead of vacation time so that would be there in the scoring system. But most people prefer to wait until the last day available to see how existing storms are doing, for fine-tuning their seasonal predictions.

And by predictions, of course, I mean guesses, sometimes lucky (as I would know).

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

Wow, even though I created the temperature forecast thread for June, it still didn't hit me that it was almost June already!

Same rules as last year sound good to everyone? If so, we'll make June's forecast due on Sunday, 6/3, at 11:59 PM EDT. I'm good for running the contest, as I already have the spreadsheet for it. :P

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
Posted

I was originally thinking 11/6/2, but I didn't expect Alberto and Beryl...

So, in that case, 13/6/2.... active early, then the season shutting down early in October.

For June, since we already had Alberto and Beryl, I should go 0/0/0, but with the Caribbean remaining unsettled, I'll go with 1/0/0 just to hedge my bets.

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted

Without the two already named storms

12/8/3

2/1/0 June

Just wondering if Mallow intends to start his annual North Atlantic seasonal and monthly tropical / hurricane forecasting contest? (edit ... Mallow is in the building).

I suggest that we fill this thread with seasonal and June forecasts and figure out the scoring details in a few days. If Mallow decides to run the contest he can take over this thread. (edit, see Mallow's post later in the thread)

Just to get it started, I would say, post your seasonal prediction realizing that two named storms have already been tagged, and add a forecast for June. The order of your forecast numbers, as always, should be

Named storms / Hurricanes / Major (3+) Hurricanes

and if you weren't with us for last year, all of a storm's performance counts only in the month it is first named (GMT applies in end of month cases).

Since I posted a summer forecast with numbers, I will go with those to get this contest started.

21 / 13 / 7 seasonal

2 / 1 / 1 June

Usually we have a fairly strict deadline with penalties but I will stick my neck out and say, regardless of who organizes this, we can tolerate a 3-day extension to get the contest going, so entries would be due by the end of the day in the Eastern time zone on Sunday, June 3rd.

If an official thread is posted I will delete this one, after saving any forecasts made in it.

For anyone new to this, or with no memory of last year's contest, scores are assigned to seasonal forecasts that can be amended with each month's entry. The value of your seasonal forecast will drop off as we near the end point. An equal number of points (or something close to it) will be available for your monthly predictions. Your final score is the sum of the two parts of the contest.

If you miss a month or forget to update, your previous seasonal forecast carries over. You can always drop in with a monthly forecast ahead of vacation time so that would be there in the scoring system. But most people prefer to wait until the last day available to see how existing storms are doing, for fine-tuning their seasonal predictions.

And by predictions, of course, I mean guesses, sometimes lucky (as I would know).

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