PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The funny thing is, back in October, Hartford Ct ( Bradley ) which sits at a measly 160 ft asl, got 12" of snow with temps aroud 34 F. Hopefully you should do ok once this storm really intensifies. Yeah, I'm not to worried about it, should just be a matter of time. I'm hearing reports of power outages already in St. Mary's PA. My buddy lives there and he said quite a few people are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The NAM but they just posted this in the discussion .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF RAIN /SOME HEAVY/ WAS PIVOTING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT NICELY INDICATES THAT THE PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO WET SNOW AT THE BEAM HEIGHT OF 2500-3000 MSL JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RDA...WHILE THIS CC PRODUCT AND SFC OBS INDICATES THAT THE CHANGEOVER HAS REACHED THE GROUND ACROSS THE NW MTNS. KDUJ AND KBFD CHANGED TO SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z...WHILE KFIG AND KJST JUST WENT OVER TO ALL SNOW WITHIN THE PAST 30 MINUTES. SOME WET SNOW FLAKES HAVE BECOME MIXED IN AROUND THE HAPPY VALLEY AREA...AND A CHANGOVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM KAOO TO KUNV BETWEEN 03Z-05Z BASED ON THE 01Z RUC FCST OF MEAN 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPS DIPPING SLIGHTLY TO JUST -0.5 TO -1C. MIXED PHASE PRECIP IS NOTED AT ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 4500 FT MSL TO THE EAST THROUGH SSE /AT FURTHER DISTANCES AWAY FROM THE RADAR SITE/...HIGHLIGHTING THE STRONG EAST TO WEST MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE SUSQ VALLEY. THE SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DIGGING UPPER LOW HEADED OUT OF THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS BEGINNING TO CAPTURE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE...AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK THROUGH THE SOUTH AND BECOMES SERLY. THE BACK /SWRN EDGE/ EDGE OF THIS CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO THE SW...AND PIVOT SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP RATES BEING MAINTAINED OR EVEN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...LEADING TO HEAVY WET SNOW WITHIN A FEW QUASI-SNTRY BANDS OF MDT TO STG FRONTOGENESIS. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GRIDDED FCST DATABASE WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER...AND RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMS BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL BE KEEPING A WATCHFUL EYE THOUGH ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SULLIVAN COUNTY /NE OF KIPT/...SINCE THEY/RE CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE MID 30S WITH WEAK LLVL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR SURGING IN ALOFT FROM THE SSE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CHANGEOVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO JUST A MIX OF WET SNOW AND SLEET AT BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The same thing happened earlier today, 2001kx. And yesterday. Sometimes, not sure why, the point and click will suddenly look vastly different for a short period. 35.7 here, with rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Still a lot of rain mixed in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 My cousin near Stormstown, PA reported a wet snow is falling there. Pretty much all snow it sounded like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Snow here in Johnstown. Pics will be taken of course. Will get them up Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 All rain in Willpo...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 All rain in Willpo...lol. You were expecting something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Finally all snow, but its not doing much lol. I just saw CTP's new snowfall totals, ohhhhh man do I smell bigest forecast bust coming up. Kinda sad when KBFD goes from 20.1" to 5.1" lolololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Trying to be humorous while writing a paper...geesh!! Thought that was implied by the LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Finally all snow, but its not doing much lol. I just saw CTP's new snowfall totals, ohhhhh man do I smell bigest forecast bust coming up. Kinda sad when KBFD goes from 20.1" to 5.1" lolololol Wow! I read their discussion. Talk about a curve ball at the last second. State College will probably get a slushy inch if lucky. Looks like back home probably 4"-6" inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Trying to be humorous while writing a paper...geesh!! Thought that was implied by the LOL. Lol. Same here. I'm just here to observe from 3 states away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Man what a last minute and lame turn of events this is. We do have the deform shield starting to stabilize and establish about as expected, with the majority over the west central and UNV nearing the edge of the slot. The progressive turn on the models is going to take the big hitting and possibly historic option off the table and replace it with a more modest event with several inches in the highlands and perhaps a coating to a couple inches in the current advisory area. Still pretty impressive for this time of the year but now something that is not quite as unheard of. The intensity of this deform shield was crucial to getting a big event given the time of year, and with the turn to more progressive and less dynamic its going to really hurt accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Some morning musings from me. Given the forecasted track of the low I expected a pretty sizable dry slot to overtake the region east of the Susquehanna, and as of this mornings radar, those expectations were correct. The lack of rainfall in my backyard was "a bit" of a surprise though. While we still got a decent amount (1.30") from the main part of the storm, it wasn't nearly as impressive as I'd originally thought. The heavier bands of precipitation acted eerily similar to past coastal snowstorms as they marched up through New Jersey and southeast PA, only to hit a proverbial brick wall before reaching the Tamaqua area. I could, on radar, literally watch the heavier echos "dry up" as they approached from the southeast. While this certainly wasn't the drought buster some had hoped for, it still was a significant precipitation event, and some locations did actually do well. For those of you getting snow, I know you had hoped for the historical accumulations that the models have been showing, but in the long run, you may end up much better off with the lighter ones that I'm seeing some of you complain about. Your landscapes will be saved, and you most likely won't have to deal with the widespread, long duration power outages that were sure to have occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Do you guys still really want pics still, it is pretty much a non event so far. I have only accumulated 1.3" this morning for the obs total. This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Heading west from Altoona conditions turn pretty fast acording to the cams. Just a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Some morning musings from me. Given the forecasted track of the low I expected a pretty sizable dry slot to overtake the region east of the Susquehanna, and as of this mornings radar, those expectations were correct. The lack of rainfall in my backyard was "a bit" of a surprise though. While we still got a decent amount (1.30") from the main part of the storm, it wasn't nearly as impressive as I'd originally thought. The heavier bands of precipitation acted eerily similar to past coastal snowstorms as they marched up through New Jersey and southeast PA, only to hit a proverbial brick wall before reaching the Tamaqua area. I could, on radar, literally watch the heavier echos "dry up" as they approached from the southeast. While this certainly wasn't the drought buster some had hoped for, it still was a significant precipitation event, and some locations did actually do well. For those of you getting snow, I know you had hoped for the historical accumulations that the models have been showing, but in the long run, you may end up much better off with the lighter ones that I'm seeing some of you complain about. Your landscapes will be saved, and you most likely won't have to deal with the widespread, long duration power outages that were sure to have occured. got .40 on Saturday and 1.50 Sunday till today still a good precipitation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Do you guys still really want pics still, it is pretty much a non event so far. I have only accumulated 1.3" this morning for the obs total. This sucks. Wish i could say that. Got rain and 35 degrees witht the rain/snow line actually moving away from me while ROC sees snow. Gonna be a HUGE bust here. Would be extremly lucky to get 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Do you guys still really want pics still, it is pretty much a non event so far. I have only accumulated 1.3" this morning for the obs total. This sucks. Yes, some is better then none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 got .40 on Saturday and 1.50 Sunday till today still a good precipitation event. Agreed and we needed it, but it certainly didn't come close to the ridiculous numbers some of the models were spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Heading west from Altoona conditions turn pretty fast acording to the cams. Just a heads up. Link to the cams: http://trafficland.com/city/AOO/index.html Snowing at a good clip here, just a dusting on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Link to the cams: http://trafficland.c.../AOO/index.html Snowing at a good clip here, just a dusting on grass. Would be interesting to see the tops on Mt. Nittany/Tussey compared to downtown State College today. I would have to think those spots approach or reach warning snow amounts with the banding. The storm is going to be too progressive to really put down a lot of snow as it looked like yesterday and the day before, but any snow on April 23rd is very impressive. The tree damage would have been prolific as well. I was in town for the Blue/White game and saw all the leafed out trees. Many of them would have been destroyed if 4-8" of snow fell on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 like normal, i question the reports on precip from Harrisburg. Yesterday it said Precip for Saturday was 0.0" wtf? It rained from about 2pm at least until i went to bed at midnight. it varied in intensity from complete downpour to mist. Now its says yesterdays precip was only .59" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 like normal, i question the reports on precip from Harrisburg. Yesterday it said Precip for Saturday was 0.0" wtf? It rained from about 2pm at least until i went to bed at midnight. it varied in intensity from complete downpour to mist. Now its says yesterdays precip was only .59" lol. LOL Saussy....yes, I have no idea what MDT is reporting. They obviously got dumped on Saturday. I've done very well so far with 2.46" of total precip since Saturday afternoon when it all began. I got 1.38" on Saturday and I know that blob of precip eventually passed over Harrisburg. We'll have to watch and make sure it gets corrected. Meanwhile, 39 degrees here, a bit breezy, with light rain although we're on the western edge of the dry slot as it is rotating nw towards me. Looks like precip may shut off for a while. I wonder if the def band will simply collapse in place later today or actually progress eastward sending precip back over us???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 LOL Saussy....yes, I have no idea what MDT is reporting. They obviously got dumped on Saturday. I've done very well so far with 2.46" of total precip since Saturday afternoon when it all began. I got 1.38" on Saturday and I know that blob of precip eventually passed over Harrisburg. We'll have to watch and make sure it gets corrected. Meanwhile, 39 degrees here, a bit breezy, with light rain although we're on the western edge of the dry slot as it is rotating nw towards me. Looks like precip may shut off for a while. I wonder if the def band will simply collapse in place later today or actually progress eastward sending precip back over us???? Dont know if MDT is that far off...radar estimates do show low precipitation totals from MDT northward to IPT. Higher amounts are southwest and southeast (Lancaster County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 That deformation band is the ugliest, most unnorganized one of it's kind I've seen in awhile lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Dont know if MDT is that far off...radar estimates do show low precipitation totals from MDT northward to IPT. Higher amounts are southwest and southeast (Lancaster County). Well, they can say what they want, its BS. I don't have a rain gauge, but i will bet $$$$ we are well over 2" easily. It fricking dumped on Saturday, so much so areas here had flash flood issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Really coming down at Chickaree mtn still. I know Laurel summit has reported 1 foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Had a semi-dusting while under the heavier snow. Now the sun is faintly visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Well, they can say what they want, its BS. I don't have a rain gauge, but i will bet $$$$ we are well over 2" easily. It fricking dumped on Saturday, so much so areas here had flash flood issues. My rain gauge showed 2.16" Saturday at 11 p.m. Considering it rained until about 1 a.m., starting raining again Sunday at 10 a.m. and didn't stop until about an hour ago, yeah they're way offbase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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