Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 My thinking is east of Bradford to JST struggles to see more than 2 inches...but it is still very possible. A last second shift east with the deform band would make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah the elevation is one thing, but even spots at 1000ft would accmulate if they can get into the meaty stuff. I'm just not sure if that band can make it into the State College area given its longitude. Very tough call. If it could, I don't see much of a problem getting into the 4-8" zone, but you need the steadier stuff to really force dynamic cooling. They might be right on the edge...hopefully on the snowier side. Also, I wonder if NW winds will dry out some of the moisture later in the day? Those westerly slopes on the Allegheny front our going to get crushed. Just stuff to think about. We get surprisingly strong downslope from the Allegheny front, considering the modest elevation. That's another factor going against us...although I try to be optimistic (after all, how often does anyone in our climate get snow in late April?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 goodluck out there with all the leaves on the trees it is not fun I lost power for 9 days in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 We get surprisingly strong downslope from the Allegheny front, considering the modest elevation. That's another factor going against us...although I try to be optimistic (after all, how often does anyone in our climate get snow in late April?) Those deformation bands can help offset the effects of downsloping because most of the processes that produce snowflake production occur in the mid levels and it's a little too high to really get eaten up by low level winds, so you'll want the good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looking at most models, a slight shift east would put most of CPA in the deform. Would not want to be at CTP today, tough call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah the elevation is one thing, but even spots at 1000ft would accmulate if they can get into the meaty stuff. I'm just not sure if that band can make it into the State College area given its longitude. Very tough call. If it could, I don't see much of a problem getting into the 4-8" zone, but you need the steadier stuff to really force dynamic cooling. They might be right on the edge...hopefully on the snowier side. Also, I wonder if NW winds will dry out some of the moisture later in the day? Those westerly slopes on the Allegheny front our going to get crushed. Just stuff to think about. Yea this will be very interesting to watch unfold. The NW flow is a good point, as traditionally a deform left behind a storm lifting up will eat up precip trying to get off the Alleghenies. This is a pretty great setup though, so as long as the storm doesn't end up hooking in too far west ala the NAM.. the adjacent central counties ( AOO-UNV corridor) should get into the action. Either way, I wouldn't expect decent snow to make it much farther east than that corridor. CTP seemed to be liking the 0z Euros take, which prompted them to issue those extra watches early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yea this will be very interesting to watch unfold. The NW flow is a good point, as traditionally a deform left behind a storm lifting up will eat up precip trying to get off the Alleghenies. This is a pretty great setup though, so as long as the storm doesn't end up hooking in too far west ala the NAM.. the adjacent central counties ( AOO-UNV corridor) should get into the action. Either way, I wouldn't expect decent snow to make it much farther east than that corridor. CTP seemed to be liking the 0z Euros take, which prompted them to issue those extra watches early this morning. Yeah tough call in the AOO-UNV corridor and can see why NWS CTP put the watches up. It's not like it will be one of those situations where precip will gradually increase in intensity as you head west. It could go from a little light rain or drizzle, to mdt-hvy snow in a matter of 10-20 miles or so. Something like that makes it really tough to pin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looking at most models, a slight shift east would put most of CPA in the deform. Would not want to be at CTP today, tough call! Indeed a tough call. Most people here on campus have no idea that it may well snow tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 In March I was expecting some snow in April. But with the month of April being so dry. I figured we was done with snow,even put my snow blower away. Totals should be interesting! Just was looking at the CMC model, pretty neat to watch the snow develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What was CMC showing pawatch??? This indeed will be an interesting storm, if it corrects east a bit, game on for most. If it corrects west, its dry slot city for most here except Potter and Pit posters. Should be fun!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah, mentioned the storm to some friends this morning and everyone seems to believe it'll be kelly balmy tomorrow with rain. I'm concerned this might catch more than a few off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What was CMC showing pawatch??? This indeed will be an interesting storm, if it corrects east a bit, game on for most. If it corrects west, its dry slot city for most here except Potter and Pit posters. Should be fun!!! GEM precip type/intensity: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I think places like Coudersport and north to ELZ on the NY side will get a nice pummeling as the band of +SN shifts west early tomorrow even if they end up a bit too far east for the best deformation. But then again the 12 GFS and GGEM/RGEM have reverted east again so they may yet be in a good spot for deformation as well. My thinking is east of Bradford to JST struggles to see more than 2 inches...but it is still very possible. A last second shift east with the deform band would make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah, mentioned the storm to some friends this morning and everyone seems to believe it'll be kelly balmy tomorrow with rain. I'm concerned this might catch more than a few off guard. Hopefully it works out for us, I still have the borrowed trays from the commons...we need a good 4"+ for quality sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What was CMC showing pawatch??? This indeed will be an interesting storm, if it corrects east a bit, game on for most. If it corrects west, its dry slot city for most here except Potter and Pit posters. Should be fun!!! Just watching the snow getting it's start up North and then expand. Some much needed rain for sure. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Just watching the snow getting it's start up North and then expand. Some much needed rain for sure. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Looks like I'm ground zero for the heavy rains. Thankfully though, not for the heavy snow. Far and away too many leaves on the trees here which would have been my main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 If there is a saving grace, it looks like the areas that will be dry slotted or rain have the biggest foliage out. However, Johnstown and Pit could be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yea Voyager...I'm surprised no flood watches for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Hopefully it works out for us, I still have the borrowed trays from the commons...we need a good 4"+ for quality sledding. Sounds good. Only thing I can really say for sure is that it'll be pretty chilly biscuits out come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 First guesses on warnings advisories. Advisories go up for N. Lycoming, Tioga, Clinton, Southern Centre and maybe Blair. I think the rest go to warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 CMC puts down the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 First guesses on warnings advisories. Advisories go up for N. Lycoming, Tioga, Clinton, Southern Centre and maybe Blair. I think the rest go to warnings. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 WOW at the CMC...not sure whats snow there but precip is plentiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 MMMMM MMMMM Can't wait to go to Johnstown this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro about the same? Looks like it. Can a Pro MET give me some data for JST? Chance of thundersnow and possible rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS ensembles coming in pretty nice for UNV.... 0.76" liquid equivalent snow with decent agreement. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Warnings up in western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Any word of the EURO....quiet in here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Any word of the EURO....quiet in here lol. Seems about the same, maybe a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.