forkyfork Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 You schooled me on that. Dobbs Ferry hit 32F on 5/10/2010, much to my surprise. It's easy for there to be a pattern change well beyond when the models can see that will produce frosts/freezes down to NYC. I could see there not being any more temperatures in the 20s for people right outside NYC, however, and that's what it probably takes to kill most species. the immediate nyc metro was done with freezing temps 3/29 last year and 3/28 in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nearest first order station for me is LGA, and even there the 50% freeze probability is April 1st, so I'd guess everywhere in CT gets at least one more shot at 32 or below. At BDR, the earliest start to the freeze free season was March 21, 1949 followed by a bunch of March 22s (1953, 1954, and 2005). The latest was May 11, 1966. The average date over BDR's 63 years is April 12th with a median date of April 9th. Greenwich is a lot like Westchester in terms of climate, so I'd guess your 50% last freeze is around April 15th (Dobbs Ferry is April 18th according to NCDC). You might be a little bit warmer since you have more proximity to the Sound than places further west, and a little less elevation than the hilly towns abutting the Hudson. I'd think LGA is much too warm for your area...they have a lot more urban heat island and are further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I'm really excited about the prospects of a snowy April on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Wait BDR? Thought that did not represent you? You are allowed to use BDR on the low temps...just cant use them on the high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 You are allowed to use BDR on the low temps...just cant use them on the high temps. No, that's what car thermometers are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 the immediate nyc metro was done with freezing temps 3/29 last year and 3/28 in 2010 Nobody cares. We live in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I still have a foot of snow in my backyard and none of you do. Feel overwhelmed with uncontrollable jealousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I still have a foot of snow in my backyard and none of you do. Feel overwhelmed with uncontrollable jealousy. How's the hands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 How's the hands? They really miss the past few months where all they had to do each day is lift a spoon to my mouth and push buttons on the remote control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Greenwich is a lot like Westchester in terms of climate, so I'd guess your 50% last freeze is around April 15th (Dobbs Ferry is April 18th according to NCDC). You might be a little bit warmer since you have more proximity to the Sound than places further west, and a little less elevation than the hilly towns abutting the Hudson. I'd think LGA is much too warm for your area...they have a lot more urban heat island and are further south. It's kind of no-mans land with BDR 30+ miles NE and LGA 20 miles SW of here. On the less hazy days, I can see the Manhattan skyline, the Throgs Neck and Whitestone Briges, and planes going in and out of LGA. The back country (out by HPN) is quite a bit different from the beach (south of Route 1/I-95) as there is some elevation, hollows that radiate well, protection from lots of trees, and a lot less concrete and paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 They really miss the past few months where all they had to do each day is lift a spoon to my mouth and push buttons on the remote control. LOL, work gotta get done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 This would be a torch for May almost lol. Just insanity. Looks like a backdoor cold front comes through and then here comes July! Pretty bold for a 7 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Haven't you seen the climate change forum? All the ice will melt by 2015. Some of the posts in that forum are so outrageous. Ice will melt by 2015, rivers were frozen solid every winter in Southern Ontario 50 years ago, etc. Ugh. It's gotten even worse now after this past Winter since apparently this was the first mild Winter in the last 500 years. I'm getting scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 This would be a torch for May almost lol. Just insanity. Looks like a backdoor cold front comes through and then here comes July! Pretty bold for a 7 day forecast. That forecast would tie the record for earliest 80F at BOS....March 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 That forecast would tie the record for earliest 80F at BOS....March 21. Insane, makes me wish even more that we get another snowstorm after the extreme heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 That 82 is very possible, but Pete must love those temps on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Some of the posts in that forum are so outrageous. Ice will melt by 2015, rivers were frozen solid every winter in Southern Ontario 50 years ago, etc. Ugh. It's gotten even worse now after this past Winter since apparently this was the first mild Winter in the last 500 years. I'm getting scared. The nightly news tonight made it seem that way. Move 5 miles inland before its too late. LL will not only be in the tropics he will be the new Atlantis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 It's hard to relax when weenie-ism runs rampant. Of course it's extremely mild, but this anomalous wx will not last forever. We'll be back to near normal by the end of the month and I'm sure some very chilly days as we start April. We'll have mild days too, but lets not go overboard with you guys bringing leaf out talk in two weeks. For the record, I have not jumped on the leaf out train...I remember a heat wave in April (was it 03?) where it was 90-95 for a week with bare trees....but regarding the point that it won't last forever, sure, but this has gone on since early November without much of a break...why end it now? I'd say May or June....maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 You guys have been touting a rubber band snapping Kevins rear end since November...it has to end sometime etc. Sure it does at some point but that doesn't mean it has to turn bitterly cold. It can just ease into normal too. If it returns to normal in May and that's the 50s and 60s who cares....we made it through most of the colder months in a torch. Next winter will be different, but I don't see cold and snow ruining our futures. Been hearing that for too long and so far larry bird and cold miser haven't walked through that door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 For the record, I have not jumped on the leaf out train...I remember a heat wave in April (was it 03?) where it was 90-95 for a week with bare trees....but regarding the point that it won't last forever, sure, but this has gone on since early November without much of a break...why end it now? I'd say May or June....maybe Just to be clear, not saying rubber band snap or anything like that. Like I said earlier... I could see April above normal. All I'm saying is this recent spell of insane warmth will be ending later this month for a time. It is possible we warm again later in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just to be clear, not saying rubber band snap or anything like that. Like I said earlier... I could see April above normal. All I'm saying is this recent spell of insane warmth will be ending later this month for a time. It is possible we warm again later in April. Yeah it looks more roller coaster like by the end of the month and into early April...which is why we said there could be a chance of a snow event then...you get a mean ridge position over the rockies and western plains and you always have the potential for something to cutoff down the east side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Just to be clear, not saying rubber band snap or anything like that. Like I said earlier... I could see April above normal. All I'm saying is this recent spell of insane warmth will be ending later this month for a time. It is possible we warm again later in April. I hope to God that we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I hope to God that we don't. LOL your obsessed with it being cold. By late April, bring on 70s if its not going to snow. I agree about not wanting 90 unless we get severe t-storms with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I hope to God that we don't. Can we get some Virginia posters on here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 LOL your obsessed with it being cold. By late April, bring on 70s if its not going to snow. I agree about not wanting 90 unless we get severe t-storms with it. I'm not obsessed, I just want some NORMAL temps for once, 45-50 won't bother me because that is NORMAL for this time of year, not 70 like we have had in the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 April should be warmer and a great month to get the baseball gear in full workout mode. 60 and 70 is awesome. What I do not want is 80-90 in March, it's bad for vegetation and not normal. Sorry I do not want it cold and snowy either but there are repercussions if we warm early and stay warm, just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 April should be warmer and a great month to get the baseball gear in full workout mode. 60 and 70 is awesome. What I do not want is 80-90 in March, it's bad for vegetation and not normal. Sorry I do not want it cold and snowy either but there are repercussions if we warm early and stay warm, just sayin. I remember the freeze we had in April 1998 about a week after the epic torch at the end of March. Didn't go so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 April should be warmer and a great month to get the baseball gear in full workout mode. 60 and 70 is awesome. What I do not want is 80-90 in March, it's bad for vegetation and not normal. Sorry I do not want it cold and snowy either but there are repercussions if we warm early and stay warm, just sayin. The people who own fruit farms must be scared to death, especially apple orchards, one good freeze while they are in bloom will kill an entire year for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I remember the freeze we had in April 1998 about a week after the epic torch at the end of March. Didn't go so well. We need that April '95 cold spell lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 We need that April '95 cold spell lol. If it leads to a July '95 I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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