The unofficial official absurdly warm for March thread

[CoastalWx]

Because it's where official records in N Ct are kept

What about in the winter?

[Logan11]

That's because Fairfield is in the NYC Nielsen DMA (designated market area). So their station manager, etc. probably wants them to focus on where their money is made so to speak.

It always drove me crazy when I lived 40 miles below ALB and we went through the same junk because some guy at Nielsen decided we should be in the NYC DMA even though we were 100 miles above the city. But at least we got the ALB channels on cable along with NYC.

We used to get 3 and 8 from CT also there years ago before of this regional territories stuff became the law. I like Hilton as a kid.Then they were forced to drop the CT stations.

my wife watches them too. (even though they ignore Fairfield County) I don't think they realize how many viewers they have in this part of the state. NYC news channels ignore us too.

[Logan11]

Hey Fog and clouds made it to me. I thought I was far enough west. We were 27 and clear at around 3:00 AM and then this stuff rolled in and the temperature jumped to the upper 30's.

If you look at the viz..you can see breaks already working their way down into NW Ct and Western Mass..It's not going to be a sunny day,,but the sun should come out partially later morning time into afternoon

[ski MRG]

If you look at the viz..you can see breaks already working their way down into NW Ct and Western Mass..It's not going to be a sunny day,,but the sun should come out partially later morning time into afternoon

Murky cool and misty here @ 2k. Have you planted your tender veggies yet? Full leaf out by Sat? Why do I still have snow? You said it would all be gone by Thursday. I rely on your forecasts to plan building projects and recreational activities. I wore shorts today because you and LL said 80's all week. Now I'm catching a chill because its in the 30s and I'm operating heavy equipment. WTF?

[ChrisM]

Are these clouds going to clear out of n vt? Can't get sat on my phone

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Clearly the rubber band has snapped. We're screwed the rest of the spring. This is what we all feared, atomic whiplash. I'm only 39 here, temps are below normal and ocean temps are diving at the buoys offshore.

Prepare now.

[CT Rain]

Looks pretty awful today here. Low clouds continue charging west into the Hudson Valley and across inland CT ceilings have been falling or holding steady. Blah.

[Modfan]

I feel your pain, being in Eastern CT we get minimal mention.

Growing up in Southern Worc County I felt the same way, then I moved over the line into CT and get the same treatment!

[Brian5671]

That's because Fairfield is in the NYC Nielsen DMA (designated market area). So their station manager, etc. probably wants them to focus on where their money is made so to speak.

It always drove me crazy when I lived 40 miles below ALB and we went through the same junk because some guy at Nielsen decided we should be in the NYC DMA even though we were 100 miles above the city. But at least we got the ALB channels on cable along with NYC.

We used to get 3 and 8 from CT also there years ago before of this regional territories stuff became the law. I like Hilton as a kid.Then they were forced to drop the CT stations.

Our cable co tried to drop the CT channels from our lineup a few years back, but there was such an outcry, they recanted--so we get both NYC and Hartford channels. We do have News 12 which focuses on Fairfield county so we do have that for news...

[tamarack]

Mind boggling..Could be a +15 for the month at 3 of the 4 climo sites

I'll take the under for +12 (which is still pretty incredible) at the station among those 4 with the greatest departure. Given the current +6/+7 thru 3/14, arithmetic says it would need to avg +22 for the entire remaining 17 days. Might do that for a 5-day stretch, which is amazing, but not for all 17. Biggest monthly departure I've ever seen was +14.7 for Feb. 1981 in CAR. They tied their then-record monthly max twice, and exceeded it 7 times. From 2/17 thru 2/23 every day was +25 to +30.

Warm in the midwest - DEC had 81/55, for +27, and broke the (rather modest) daily record by 19F.

Closer to home, I had 2.2" snow, and N.Maine had nearly a foot.

[Brian5671]

Stuck at 44 here....upton's call for 50 looks optimistic.

BIL SW of Philly says the cloud deck is charging in from the NE....big bust down there where they were looking at a 70 degree day and PHL is stuck at 48 with NE winds.

[dryslot]

I'll take the under for +12 (which is still pretty incredible) at the station among those 4 with the greatest departure. Given the current +6/+7 thru 3/14, arithmetic says it would need to avg +22 for the entire remaining 17 days. Might do that for a 5-day stretch, which is amazing, but not for all 17. Biggest monthly departure I've ever seen was +14.7 for Feb. 1981 in CAR. They tied their then-record monthly max twice, and exceeded it 7 times. From 2/17 thru 2/23 every day was +25 to +30.

Warm in the midwest - DEC had 81/55, for +27, and broke the (rather modest) daily record by 19F.

Closer to home, I had 2.2" snow, and N.Maine had nearly a foot.

Winter lives in the great white north,

MAINE

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

FORT FAIRFIELD 2 NE 15.0 916 AM 3/15

CARIBOU 1 NNW 11.5 800 AM 3/15

PRESQUE ISLE 11.0 605 AM 3/15

LIMESTONE 10.1 124 AM 3/15

CARIBOU 4 ENE 9.7 725 AM 3/15

CONNOR 7.2 824 AM 3/15

MARS HILL 7.0 758 AM 3/15

CASTLE HILL 1 SSE 6.5 900 AM 3/15

LILLE 5 SSE 6.3 709 AM 3/15

ALLAGASH 1 ENE 5.0 625 AM 3/15

VAN BUREN - COOP 5.0 726 AM 3/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

FORT KENT - COOP 4.0 736 AM 3/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

HOULTON 1 S 4.0 557 AM 3/15

LILLE 3.4 726 AM 3/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

ISLAND FALLS 2.8 726 AM 3/15

SHERMAN 2.0 611 AM 3/15

[wxmanmitch]

Actually had a couple drops of freezing rain here this morning thanks to some leftovers from that moisture moving SE from upstate NY and a radiation inversion. I was clear and calm most of the night as we were on the dry side of the backdoor front and we dropped into the high 20s.

Skies are clear here in the low-levels as I am downsloping on a NE flow. I can actually see some low stratus reaching the crest just to my east. Definitely one of those classic spring days where a marine layer banks up against the east slope and dries out as it descends down the west side. You can see the demarcation on this morning's vis image. Even in boring torch patterns there is some interesting stuff happening if you know where to look.

[Typhoon Tip]

Clearly the rubber band has snapped. We're screwed the rest of the spring. This is what we all feared, atomic whiplash. I'm only 39 here, temps are below normal and ocean temps are diving at the buoys offshore.

Prepare now.

It's funny how the vagaries of the weather play the opinions and attitudes of people like they were violins.

When it's 80F next Wednesday the song of the chorus will vibrato about the end of Marches as being winter months all over again.

Nah, nothing unusual. Big polar high slipping SE into the Maritimes were merely blocked by the exiting quasi-closed low - otherwise it would have come in as a N-door front and ended the warmth some 24 hours faster than it did. Pressure gradient from the weak'ish sfc low response was pointed seaward during the morning yesterday; that allowed a lot of interior eastern areas to soar into the 60's by lunch-time, but when said gradient ceased at mid afternoon, the region was left naked and non-resistent to the mirk and cold dense air lurking.

I posted yesterday at noon or thereabouts, that I wondered if that air mass would rumble SW later in the afternoon - guess it was a good question to ask. It's just that seems extreme because it is winter (Meteorologically no...by pre-Equinox nonetheless). The ocean is at about its coldest time of the year, combined with forementioned polar high being quite cold (way up there), when the two team up and rolled SW, you're cutting 66F air with temps in the 30s. It's going to seem wicked, because it is. However, it was far more unusual to be so warm, rather then so much that it corrected the other way.

But ...that's just my take on things. By the way, speaking of corrections: The overnight GEFs -derived teleconnectors from both the CDC and CPC are somewhat interesting now for Week 2. The CDC has the EPO correcting some 2SD downward, and the NAO slipping negative, in tandem. The PNA is sort of weak positive to neutral, albeit falling, but being so close to neutral and having the slope of its decent being rather oblate, the signal there is probably more @N/S then really indicative of much. It may have been just a 1 night deal and the signal could be lost ...so obviously teleconnector continuity is presently sought; I just thought it interesting because the Euro Weeklies had also flagged that the warm departure probabilities were fastly falling after the 25th of the month.

The first 2 weeks of April have some rare but impressive winter recuperation events in history; it is perhaps too easy to forget that, and/or foresake any confidence therein do to "Stockholm Syndrome". But being captive of the warm horrid winter many were, that is unfortunatley no variable in realistic determinism. It can still happen just as much as any year. In fact, I could almost see -EPO dumping late season cold, then a neutral PNA that slips negative happening to abandon at chunk of Pac energy that trundles underneath and viola. Still chances after whatever warm departure - related pattern relaxes next week.

[NorEastermass128]

It's funny how the vagaries of the weather play the opinions and attitudes of people like they were violins.

When it's 80F next Wednesday the song of the chorus will vibrato about the end of Marches as being winter months all over again.

Nah, nothing unusual. Big polar high slipping SE into the Maritimes were merely blocked by the exiting quasi-closed low - otherwise it would have come in as a N-door front and ended the warmth some 24 hours faster than it did. Pressure gradient from the weak'ish sfc low response was pointed seaward during the morning yesterday; that allowed a lot of interior eastern areas to soar into the 60's by lunch-time, but when said gradient ceased at mid afternoon, the region was left naked and non-resistent to the mirk and cold dense air lurking.

I posted yesterday at noon or thereabouts, that I wondered if that air mass would rumble SW later in the afternoon - guess it was a good question to ask. It's just that seems extreme because it is winter (Meteorologically no...by pre-Equinox non-the-less). The ocean is at about its coldest time of the year, combined with forementioned polar high being quite cold (way up there), when the two team up and rolled SW, you're cutting 66F air with temps in the 30s. It's going to seem wicked, because it is. However, it was far more unusual to be so warm, rather then so much that it corrected the other way.

But ...that's just my take on things. By the way, speaking of corrections: The overnight GEFs -derived teleconnectors from both the CDC and CPC are somewhat interesting now for Week 2. The CDC has the EPO correcting some 2SD downward, and the NAO slipping negative, in tandem. The PNA is sort of weak positive to neutral, albeit falling, but being so close to neutral and having the slope of its decent being rather oblate, the signal there is probably more @N/S then really indicative of much. It may have been just a 1 night deal and the signal could be lost ...so obviously teleconnector continuity is presently sought; I just thought it interesting because the Euro Weeklies had also flagged that the warm departure probabilities were fastly falling after the 25th of the month.

The first 2 weeks of April have some rare but impressive winter recuperation events in history; it is perhaps too easy to forget that, and/or foresake any confidence therein do to "Stockholm Syndrome". But being captive of the warm horrid winter many were, that is unfortunatley no variable in realistic determinism. It can still happen just as much as any year. In fact, I could almost see -EPO dumping late season cold, then a neutral PNA that slips negative happening to abandon at chunk of Pac energy that trundles underneath and viola. Still chances after whatever warm departure - related pattern relaxes next week.

[CoastalWx]

It's funny how the vagaries of the weather play the opinions and attitudes of people like they were violins.

When it's 80F next Wednesday the song of the chorus will vibrato about the end of Marches as being winter months all over again.

Nah, nothing unusual. Big polar high slipping SE into the Maritimes were merely blocked by the exiting quasi-closed low - otherwise it would have come in as a N-door front and ended the warmth some 24 hours faster than it did. Pressure gradient from the weak'ish sfc low response was pointed seaward during the morning yesterday; that allowed a lot of interior eastern areas to soar into the 60's by lunch-time, but when said gradient ceased at mid afternoon, the region was left naked and non-resistent to the mirk and cold dense air lurking.

I posted yesterday at noon or thereabouts, that I wondered if that air mass would rumble SW later in the afternoon - guess it was a good question to ask. It's just that seems extreme because it is winter (Meteorologically no...by pre-Equinox non-the-less). The ocean is at about its coldest time of the year, combined with forementioned polar high being quite cold (way up there), when the two team up and rolled SW, you're cutting 66F air with temps in the 30s. It's going to seem wicked, because it is. However, it was far more unusual to be so warm, rather then so much that it corrected the other way.

But ...that's just my take on things. By the way, speaking of corrections: The overnight GEFs -derived teleconnectors from both the CDC and CPC are somewhat interesting now for Week 2. The CDC has the EPO correcting some 2SD downward, and the NAO slipping negative, in tandem. The PNA is sort of weak positive to neutral, albeit falling, but being so close to neutral and having the slope of its decent being rather oblate, the signal there is probably more @N/S then really indicative of much. It may have been just a 1 night deal and the signal could be lost ...so obviously teleconnector continuity is presently sought; I just thought it interesting because the Euro Weeklies had also flagged that the warm departure probabilities were fastly falling after the 25th of the month.

The first 2 weeks of April have some rare but impressive winter recuperation events in history; it is perhaps too easy to forget that, and/or foresake any confidence therein do to "Stockholm Syndrome". But being captive of the warm horrid winter many were, that is unfortunatley no variable in realistic determinism. It can still happen just as much as any year. In fact, I could almost see -EPO dumping late season cold, then a neutral PNA that slips negative happening to abandon at chunk of Pac energy that trundles underneath and viola. Still chances after whatever warm departure - related pattern relaxes next week.

That's the thing about Spring. It does not care about what happened during the previous winter..especially as wavelengths shorten. It's a chaotic time of year. Next week will be wonderful for many, but will also probably cause people to have a false sense of summer being around the corner. I fully expect people to talk about leaf out, flowers blooming, exotic diseases being spread by mosquitoes..etc. However, it will be back to more normal late March early April wx shortly after.

[Typhoon Tip]

LMAO!

[Tropopause_Fold]

BDL will approach 60 yes

hopefully it starts climbing soon.

[Typhoon Tip]

As to the next week... The MOS is going to bust too warm until the following configuration breaks down ...notice intense polar high "lobing" around from NS/NF regions..? In fact, if it were not for the closed low remnant and its attending sfc low...if those mechanics weren't there, that high would probably relinquish it's reach-back impact on SNE/Maine much quicker. It's "stuck" there more than less in a holding pattern, waiting on that low to get out of there:

[Logan11]

It's gonna bring all the lovely deer tick nymphs out ...i.e. lyme diseased. That's the main negative of warmer wx. You can't walk in the woods anymore without having to scour yourself afterward for ticks.

As a kid we practically lived in the woods all summer with our "forts" etc...can't imagine that could be done today.

That's the thing about Spring. It does not care about what happened during the previous winter..especially as wavelengths shorten. It's a chaotic time of year. Next week will be wonderful for many, but will also probably cause people to have a false sense of summer being around the corner. I fully expect people to talk about leaf out, flowers blooming, exotic diseases being spread by mosquitoes..etc. However, it will be back to more normal late March early April wx shortly after.

[CoastalWx]

hopefully it starts climbing soon.

Days and Days of 70s and 80s.

[Tropopause_Fold]

As to the next week... The MOS is going to bust too warm until the following configuration breaks down ...notice intense polar high "lobing" around from NS/NF regions..? In fact, if it were not for the closed low remnant and its attending sfc low...if those mechanics weren't there, that high would probably relinquish it's reach-back impact on SNE/Maine much quicker. It's "stuck" there more than less in a holding pattern, waiting on that low to get out of there:

i could see MAV bust a bit high friday and maybe saturday for the coast, but after that...i'd expect MOS to suffer from being too cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's the thing about Spring. It does not care about what happened during the previous winter..especially as wavelengths shorten. It's a chaotic time of year. Next week will be wonderful for many, but will also probably cause people to have a false sense of summer being around the corner. I fully expect people to talk about leaf out, flowers blooming, exotic diseases being spread by mosquitoes..etc. However, it will be back to more normal late March early April wx shortly after.

Yeah, agreed ... It's an interesting science in how climate/weather affects the masses.

Do you know that homocide numbers are highest during hot humid weather? There's also that spooky business about the Full Moon spiking numbers of crime, and general civil unrest-related tendencies in general. I think that might be explained, though, via optical affects and that having the pale light of full moon interfering somehow with the diurnal cycle meets with psychology, but who knows...

Fact of the matter is, we are just as bound to natural signals as any other species of organism on this planet. It's tough to think outside the box and connect with that; we have these brain pans that fool us into believing we are "above it all", but no... Hell, just look at the very real condition known as SAD, seasonal affective disorder. Some people get down right bi-polar in the low sun/low daylight times of the year.

[Typhoon Tip]

i could see MAV bust a bit high friday and maybe saturday for the coast, but after that...i'd expect MOS to suffer from being too cold.

Oh, absolutely - I really meant that just as I said, "Until the configuration breaks down".

I suppose in all, the guidance types miss extremes in spring, ...autumn to some lesser degree, too. Warmups are routinely 3-5 too cold, and these GOM puke jobs cut in colder, too.

But yeah, if that 582dm ridge node slips under LI like that, and we get a west wind at Logan up under +13 +15C at 850mb, heh, ...68 on th GFSX MOS is boneheaded, no kidding!

[CoastalWx]

i could see MAV bust a bit high friday and maybe saturday for the coast, but after that...i'd expect MOS to suffer from being too cold.

Yeah MOS FTL again next week.

[Cold Miser]

It's gonna bring all the lovely deer tick nymphs out ...i.e. lyme diseased. That's the main negative of warmer wx. You can't walk in the woods anymore without having to scour yourself afterward for ticks.

As a kid we practically lived in the woods all summer with our "forts" etc...can't imagine that could be done today.

Yup. Thick forest all around me that the kids (and myself) venture into all of the time.

When I was about 10 I built my first "club" house in the woods where I lived in Columbia County NY. Ticks were not even thought of then.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's gonna bring all the lovely deer tick nymphs out ...i.e. lyme diseased. That's the main negative of warmer wx. You can't walk in the woods anymore without having to scour yourself afterward for ticks.

As a kid we practically lived in the woods all summer with our "forts" etc...can't imagine that could be done today.

It may sound ill on the surface, but let's think about this...

We get 10-14 days of insane climate shattering warmth, and that drives the insect kingdom into an early orgy of reproduction and party times. Then, we get a 1982 April cold redux in the first week of the month; that would be a nice insecticide.

[neweathereye]

A coating of snow last night in Augusta Maine..UGH! We were in the mid 60's Monday and Tuesday...Turning the page today to warmer temps and next weeks torch for the EC warmth all the way into Maine... I am loving it! one thing of interest..re the mild winter we had..We spent 60 greens for plowing! amazing! thanks,Craig http://www.northeastweathereye.com We have sunshine with temps in the 30's this morning....And just being Clint Eastwood for a sec here....Get that crap off my Lawn Kid!

[Logan11]

It seems like we (wx professionals and weenies) disprove the SAD hypothesis though. Presumably we are made of the same genetic make- up as the rest of society, yet we are happiest when the weather is dark and stormy, or cold and snowy. LOL So maybe boredom and depression sets in for some people people because they do not embrace winter, but not sure if sun angle is the culprit.

Yeah, agreed ... It's an interesting science in how climate/weather affects the masses.

Do you know that homocide numbers are highest during hot humid weather? There's also that spooky business about the Full Moon spiking numbers of crime, and general civil unrest-related tendencies in general. I think that might be explained, though, via optical affects and that having the pale light of full moon interfering somehow with the diurnal cycle meets with psychology, but who knows...

Fact of the matter is, we are just as bound to natural signals as any other species of organism on this planet. It's tough to think outside the box and connect with that; we have these brain pans that fool us into believing we are "above it all", but no... Hell, just look at the very real condition known as SAD, seasonal affective disorder. Some people get down right bi-polar in the low sun/low daylight times of the year.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah MOS FTL again next week.

if everything breaks right...it won't even be close. some of those day 5/6 numbers will be 15F or so too low.

i suppose tuesday could end up cooler in E MA with some sea breeze or onshore flow, so maybe that number is closer to reality or even high?