Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Here is what I find interesting... The GEFs derived PNA from CPC says no way... The index climbs from -1, to +1 Standard Deviations by D10. That is pretty well in the opposition of most of these operational guidance type trends. I dunno. It seems the MJO being powerul in Phase 4, and that the surrounding hemispheric medium seems to support the right side of the Wheeler diagram, perhaps these warm notions have merit. Still, the ridge anomaly in the east is large, but necessarily tall. Resistance to N stream trough is not so great; these backdoor notions from the ECM/GGEM should be watched. Could be balmy for everyone except specifically dong donged SNE if we're not careful - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Bowling season...this would be sweet if it end up under Long Island.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 I think there may be a thin axis that supports WINDEX behind this powerful polar front Thursday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 MORCH!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 DGEX has 4 consecutive days of +15 to +20 departures... just off the charts brothers and sisters. 3 of the days are 70-75F and there is no sign of a cold front all the way to the end of the run. In fact, you can tell by the temperature distribution in Ontario, that snow pack is stopping the heat from getting north of the border even into Ontario. Anyway, I just looked at the operational runs... this is really more of a flat ridge in the SE. It is not really so much that the eastern ridge is hugely anddominant (feed-backs and persistence and so forth); this is a physically defaulted result given the fact that there is no northern stream ...just doesn't exist any more. During the duration of next week, the 582dm height contour doesn't even get to the Del Marva latitude, while BOS is less than 576dm at times. Not very impressive really. Yes it is a positive anomaly, but not exotic. That says something; it says that if we had any polar incursion/dynamics at all the flow would compress and it would be a whole different ball game. Here, with the majority of N. Hemsiphere negative anomaly anchored around 140W, while there is a positive NAO in place, there is just no impetus to lower heights of the U.S... This may (or not) be a connected to the MJO being powerful and situated west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Just touching 70F here in Westborougn as of 1pm... Probably good for 73F as a high here. Snow is completely gone save fo shade, and assuredly it is zipping down quickly there to. I had a very interesting conversation with the ladies of the 2nd floor, while standing around in 'water cooler' type discussion waiting for our lunches to complete preparation. I was explaining the basic climate picture, one girls was particularly more privy than the others - I was impressed. She and the others said the most intriguing thing. 'Yes, I love it, and I am enjoying it, but it is wrong, and it is scary'. It was encouraging in a way; It demonstrates that even the common sensible weather suffer, the ones that don't know about adiabatic lapse rates, geopotential heights, and vort-maxes, they are aware of such matter and think about the implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 00z operational GFS most impressive mid-levels up to date regarding these mid month positive depature potentials. Ridge in the SE is actually becoming more nodal in appearance as oppose to a flatter feature where the absolute geopotential anomalies are relatively tame. There are also 3 distinct sets, identifiable, that could produce backdoor cold fronts - there's always that too. Meanwhile, the sfc synoptics are handled bizarrely with all kinds of intersecting nonesense having flows over-cutting and undercutting, and sideways cutting, amid a nebular arena of amorphously defined features.. Probably a typical spring thing with the model. I would think, though, that if the larger scaled events transpire as such there would probably be a more coherent depiciton on-going at the sfc. That's the GFS... The Euro...one thing I like about it overall is that it is less chaotic looking with the sfc isobaric layout as the operational GFS through D10. The impressiveness of positive temperature departures for this next week has been muted a little, but still above normal...Around D6-7, most operational runs (including the GGEM) have a fairly obvious backdoor scenario unfolding. It's interesting how that evolves; it starts out as the current closed/quasi-closed mid and u/a feature in the SW finally getting ejected. It then climbs in latitude over the SE ridge ... cresting over southern Ontario, then exiting seaward over eastern Maine around D7. That's actually been fairly consistent in the runs whether or not features surrounding it have suffered less continuity or not. When S/W exist ESE out of D.E.M., that is text book 101 'how to mechanize a SW roller'. The backside subsidence/NVA piles +PP over cold oceanic waters, then as land mass W-S heats up, the local Hadley circulation kicks in and said denser air mass tumbles SW like opening the door to a freezer. Backdoor boundaries are annoying for the pure warm weather enthusiast - even those into "weather" as a hobby, that is true. Backdoor fronts can herald razor sharp cut-off endings to the warm-weather party. Some of the more impressive events I have experiences lopped some 30F off the ambient lead up temperature, doing so with extreme rapidity - a matter of minutes in some case. I have seen 93F at BOS crash to 60 in 20 minutes, then settle out another 15-worth over the ensuing 4 hours thereafter. Imagine that? 93 to 45?? You don't have to, as every now and again in eastern New England - even western NE and the MA can get into these events - can witness the wonderful sublime energetic euphoria of early season gift from god ...crushed and shattered, stolen away by a climate thief known as backdoor cold front. When these air masses settle in, they can be tough to erode out, too. I have seen invasion of backdoor air masses near saturate state, fog in with strata, then a couple of whole-scale synoptic translating event pass blithely over top, each one unable to erode out the stable mirk beneath. Ugh, I shutter to think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Def a back door look Tuesday and Wednesday perhaps. Then, maybe epic St Patty's Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Def a back door look Tuesday and Wednesday perhaps. Then, maybe epic St Patty's Day? Yeah, I'm with you, but man it is so difficult to time these things. Any one of multiple impulses cruising over the top the SE ridge could exit N Maine and lay down an air mass that moves southwest. One run may focus on Tue- then later on. I would be surprised if we got through next week without one either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Some thoughts going forward. So while we are basking in the sun relatively speaking......it's possible that the end of March and beginning of April will see temps closer to normal..perhaps even below normal. Couple of things. One of the things that seems to want to possibly help end this warmth for a time (or at least reduce it) is the MJO. This thing is chugging along and seems to want to move through P7 and possible P8. Now if this does happen and the wave is formidable...it could cause a cooler look for the east..especially northeast. Of course that is one piece of the puzzle, but I already see the weeklies hint at this. The euro weeklies start to develop a more -EPO look with also a little more of a +PNA look in week 3 and 4. Also, some ridging into Greenland too. This helps to generate cooler air and lower heights into se Canada and the eastern US. So, while temps even at this time might be warmer than normal still....this suggests to me that we could see the door open up to more cutoffs. This could mean anything from a Sultan of Sandbag event...to perhaps snow. Anyways, just something to watch down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Def a back door look Tuesday and Wednesday perhaps. Then, maybe epic St Patty's Day? And on into early the next week. 06gfs had RUM touching 76 on 20th or 21st, with lows in the 50s. That's about 35F above climo; just as reference, Farmington, Maine has recorded exactly one day in its 119 yr of records (Jan 14, 1932, 62/48 for +38) that reached at least +35. That 06z run would do it 2-3 days running. Of course, it won't happen quite that way, but "epic" seems a good choice of words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Some thoughts going forward. So while we are basking in the sun relatively speaking......it's possible that the end of March and beginning of April will see temps closer to normal..perhaps even below normal. Couple of things. One of the things that seems to want to possibly help end this warmth for a time (or at least reduce it) is the MJO. This thing is chugging along and seems to want to move through P7 and possible P8. Now if this does happen and the wave is formidable...it could cause a cooler look for the east..especially northeast. Of course that is one piece of the puzzle, but I already see the weeklies hint at this. The euro weeklies start to develop a more -EPO look with also a little more of a +PNA look in week 3 and 4. Also, some ridging into Greenland too. This helps to generate cooler air and lower heights into se Canada and the eastern US. So, while temps even at this time might be warmer than normal still....this suggests to me that we could see the door open up to more cutoffs. This could mean anything from a Sultan of Sandbag event...to perhaps snow. Anyways, just something to watch down the road. Funny you posted this because I was actually working on a blog post with the same gist. I think there's no doubt weeks 1 and 2 are unbelievable torches. But I do think the MJOs swing to a more wintry pattern may bring some chill back by very end of March or toward 4/1. Maybe a snow threat up north? SoS event possible... let's get the spotlight shining... who has it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Funny you posted this because I was actually working on a blog post with the same gist. I think there's no doubt weeks 1 and 2 are unbelievable torches. But I do think the MJOs swing to a more wintry pattern may bring some chill back by very end of March or toward 4/1. Maybe a snow threat up north? SoS event possible... let's get the spotlight shining... who has it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Funny you posted this because I was actually working on a blog post with the same gist. I think there's no doubt weeks 1 and 2 are unbelievable torches. But I do think the MJOs swing to a more wintry pattern may bring some chill back by very end of March or toward 4/1. Maybe a snow threat up north? SoS event possible... let's get the spotlight shining... who has it??? Yeah I mean I suppose there are variables riding on this, but it does seem like the torch takes a breather later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 What's been funny is how predictable the medium (10-20 day) range has been from 2/1 on. Strong MJO wave dominating the forcing and continues to circle around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The MJO getting in phase 7 and 8 in February did nothing to bring in cold/snow. So now we have to hope one does in early April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The MJO getting in phase 7 and 8 in February did nothing to bring in cold/snow. So now we have to hope one does in early April? You're not comprehending what we're saying. Nobody said cold and snow, just that it may open up the door for more storminess. Perhaps rain and with these cold air cutoffs..interior snow is always a possibility. In between it still could be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You're not comprehending what we're saying. Nobody said cold and snow, just that it may open up the door for more storminess. Perhaps rain and with these cold air cutoffs..interior snow is always a possibility. In between it still could be mild. P8 this time of year doesn't really mean cold and snow necessarily. Cut-offs a problem though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You're not comprehending what we're saying. Nobody said cold and snow, just that it may open up the door for more storminess. Perhaps rain and with these cold air cutoffs..interior snow is always a possibility. In between it still could be mild. He thinks a mean mild pattern means no snow...which is wrong obviously. Increase the storminess signal and we always have a shot...that's how got the 2/29-3/1 event and the 2/24 event...that week produced a more Nina like pattern with increased storminess....that 8-9 day period was above avg for temps, but we ended up with some snow. In the spring its even worse...you can have 850 temps that support highs near 60F and then support a snowstorm a day or two later with a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 He thinks a mean mild pattern means no snow...which is wrong obviously. Increase the storminess signal and we always have a shot...that's how got the 2/29-3/1 event and the 2/24 event...that week produced a more Nina like pattern with increased storminess....that 8-9 day period was above avg for temps, but we ended up with some snow. In the spring its even worse...you can have 850 temps that support highs near 60F and then support a snowstorm a day or two later with a cutoff. Yeah no kidding. That's why those 45-50F sunny days are painful. You know deep down it's cold enough for a good snow event..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 That P8 looks like the euro week 4 H5 anomaly look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I think Joe's waxing poetic about the mild weather is more exciting than talking about snow opportunities in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Very impressive when MOS highs and lows are within a few degrees from records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 BOX saying no backdoor. Just absolutely incredible, unprecedented stretch for Mid-March if this forecast panned out. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 58. West wind between 8 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 41. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 65. Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 euro actually has widespread 70s late next week. i think that's the first run it's actually shown 2-m temps contoured >70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 euro actually has widespread 70s late next week. i think that's the first run it's actually shown 2-m temps contoured >70F. And it's weak with the wed front.... Not really a backdoor front, either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Def a back door look Tuesday and Wednesday perhaps. Then, maybe epic St Patty's Day? Warm day + Saturday St Patrick Day in Boston = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 And it's weak with the wed front.... Not really a backdoor front, either Euro doesn't look overly mild verbatim for a lot of SNE outside of northwestern areas. Lots of sea breeze/backdoor potential. 2M temps show a fairly sizable gradient as you'd expect. Lack of strong SW/W synoptic flow will hurt many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Euro doesn't look overly mild verbatim for a lot of SNE outside of northwestern areas. Lots of sea breeze/backdoor potential. 2M temps show a fairly sizable gradient as you'd expect. Lack of strong SW/W synoptic flow will hurt many areas. It looks warm to me from thurs through the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 It looks warm to me from thurs through the end of the run Yeah..Euro is a TORCH for almost all of SNE except for the immediate coast and even there it's much above. Euro would have 70's to near 80 interior areas Fri-Mon next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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