ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11. Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May. Kevin doesn't know climo very well...you'll just have to let him ramble on...if a snow event threatens, he'll be right back to wishcasting 6-10 for Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Chance of those guys wearing deodorant 10%. Ew Any of these would have been better / much more accurate Chance of shoes: 10% Chance of shirt: 10% Chance of dreadlocks: 90% Chance of hemp necklaces: 90% Chance of hackysacks: 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Wow the 06z GFS is incredible hot next week. 500mb heights up to 582dm and 850mb temps up to 16C!!!! It's just for comical purposes this far out, but here's the 228hr sounding for ASH from the 6z run. With low level west flow that inversion up to H85 would get wiped out. We'd probably mix down temps to the mid 80s at the sfc. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11. Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May. April is a lock for wire to wire torch..May might be a litle cooler..but by then it's May and we'll take our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Analogous to the October snow storm? Terrible summer ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Kevin doesn't know climo very well...you'll just have to let him ramble on...if a snow event threatens, he'll be right back to wishcasting 6-10 for Tolland. Since you are cocky, confident and so sure it will snow..throw your balls on the table...double or nothing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Chance of a frisbee 90%. What do you mean by frisbee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Couple back door threats in there though. Definitely happening midweek and hints of another around early next week. Still above normal, but the difference between 50-55 and 75 during those periods. Mainly places like KGAY that could really be affected. Less so CT. I bet BDL tickles 62 -63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 What's the largest possible lapse rate you can get in the low levels? Up here we've been seeing around 8-10F/1,000ft. 23F at 3,900ft and 42F at 1,500ft. I thought it was a mistake, then I looked at Sugarbush and their live temps are showing 23F at summit (4,000ft) and 41F at the base (1,500ft). These are like 18-19F differences over 2,000ft-2,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Analogous to the October snow storm? Terrible summer ahead We had that ridiculous warm spell in early 2009....April 2009 where BDL hit 90F...then we all know what happened that summer. However, summer of 2002 was hot and we had a very anomalous warm spell early that spring too. I'm not sure there is much of a correlation....2002 did have a miserably cold May and early June though after that April heatwave before we turned to warmer weather in July and August. IIRC March 2000 had a really big warm spell and then the summer was freezing. I've seen it go both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Since you are cocky, confident and so sure it will snow..throw your balls on the table...double or nothing?? How about double or nothing for any measurable snow....not >2"? You said we are done, so why the 2" limit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 What do you mean by frisbee? The disc. The bee. The hippie saucer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 No, even I would probably take a nice dry sunny 70 over 45 and drizzle. I'm here for snow threats..not cold rain. I really start to root for back doors in like later May and June when it starts to save us from heat and humidity. I take 60's and BKN with scattered pop up convective showers =(i.e. "old" England type summer wx) any day over 85-90 and muggy. That's when I start to get into debates with the summer lovers like Jerry, etc. who actually enjoy some of that heat junk. uponvec That's fine, but this time of year features a lot more vulnerability. I don't think anyone is saying that this weather isn't nice. I think everyone would rather have 70 than 45 and drizzle except for Logan11. Hopefully this weather isn't just a tease. I fear lousy periods of weather in April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 What's the largest possible lapse rate you can get in the low levels? Up here we've been seeing around 8-10F/1,000ft. 23F at 3,900ft and 42F at 1,500ft. I thought it was a mistake, then I looked at Sugarbush and their live temps are showing 23F at summit (4,000ft) and 41F at the base (1,500ft). These are like 18-19F differences over 2,000ft-2,500ft. Is the temp updated? 4kft on Mt Wash is up to 28F and there's a little inversion above that into the low 30s at 4300ft.http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/mesonet/?z=3 Typically it's dry adiabatic (~5.5F/1kft), but near the sfc you can get superadiabatic with strong heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 April is a lock for wire to wire torch..May might be a litle cooler..but by then it's May and we'll take our chances It very well might be above normal, but this post could be bump worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 We'll have to watch to make sure Saturday isn't ruined by warm frontal clouds or even showers. Next week is also not set in stone if this high amplitude flow allows for cutoffs to the south like the euro op shows. It is March/April season of ding-donging so the possibility cannot be precluded, sure... But that affectation from the Euro is new, that I idea of a weakness west of Bermuda disrupting the continental return flow scenario. I'd like to see some continuation of that in future runs; my bet is that it gets muted after a couple of runs of presentation ... sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 MET and MAV numbers both 70 at BDL for Tuesday. It's too bad LitchfieldLibations stopped posting when the weather was finally getting beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 How about double or nothing for any measurable snow....not >2"? You said we are done, so why the 2" limit? Because you could get a freak squall or something.. 2 inches generally wold mean a widespread snowfall..Balls in..or balls out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Is the temp updated? 4kft on Mt Wash is up to 28F and there's a little inversion above that into the low 30s at 4300ft. http://www.mountwash...er/mesonet/?z=3 Typically it's dry adiabatic (~5.5F/1kft), but near the sfc you can get superadiabatic with strong heating. I'm an idiot... just refreshed the Mansfield summit station page and its 27F now on the MesoWest site. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/GMgetobext.php?sid=MMNV1&banner=gmap I just saw that one and then saw Sugarbush's live temp showing the same thing and assumed something odd was happening. I'd never seen that big of a difference between base and summit so that's why I'd asked. Turned out, its not as big as first thought. 15F for just over 2,000ft is still solid but only 6.5-7F. I also wonder if strong westerly winds are adding some compressional heating both here and at Sugarbush which are located on the eastern bases of these mountain slopes.... and that's whats helping create the larger differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 FYI ....had 46" here this miserable season, but only half that just 23 miles east and 740 feet lower. I had posted this on the Upstate side. Hey ALB currently holding the #2 least snowy position. Only the 13.8" in 1912-13 was more snowless.Several in the upper 20's". So far this season ALB stands at: 23.3 inches. I believe they need about 4 " inches to slip into the #3 spot so quite doubtful. On the other hand: Top 10 April Snowstorms Rank/Total Storm Amount/Date 1 17.7" 4/6-7/1982 2 13.3" 4/9/2000 3 13.0" 4/1-2/1924 4 11.3" 4/8-10/1974 5 11.0" 4/3/1891 6 8.8" 4/19/1983 7 8.4" 4/8-11/1907 8 7.6" 4/9-10/1979 9 7.2" 4/3-4/1955 10 6.9" 4/13-14/1950 tie 6.9" 4/10-11/1942 You might say where is 4/1/97, but ALB fought with the typical boundary level issues, etc. there where the dynamics and intensity were lacking on the northwest fringe. It was no big deal, but the Catskills came in with three feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Concord is still only 2.9" below normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 If he doesn't think its going to snow again in his BY, he normally tries to bring the rest of the region down with him and when he's in winter mode but on the line, he tries to lump himself in with ORH hills like in the 3/1 event when it was pretty clear he'd get sleet bombed. I feel pretty good about my bet...esp with the ensembles building a bit of a western ridge by 3/25...perfect for short wavelength cutoff season. Big time torch in the meantime though. Agreed Will ... I don't care what seasonal bias' may have played out any given year leading up to March, one is insane to preclude snow happening at all, IN a March. That's ...absurd... to the point where I think the intent there isn't so much to say what one really believes, but to try and coax words of soothing encouragement to elixir a real resentment/frustration over having to endure sensible weather that isn't in one's particular bevvy of interest areas. The response to those post should be, 'suck it up and do something else to fulfill your void'. When you read a post like, "Blah blah blah since it won't snow until next year", and have to read them on March 10th of any given year, the interpretation of all that encoded babble is really: "Please say something to make the anxiety and frustration go away; I really don't want it to be warm and beautiful and euphoric in March, I want it to snow. I want, I want, I want, I want, because we all know, that weather exists because of what I want, and since this era is proving that might not be true, it is proving more than I can bear. Please make it stop and say something to give me hope? Wah wah wah" So the correct response to "Blah blah blah since it won't snow until next year", should really not be a lengthy discourse into the scientifically meritous reasons why it can still snow despite the current nagging hate for what the models are indicating with above median confidence. The correct response should therefore be, 'Saying it won't snow again on March 10 of any given year is not going to actually make it snow - just stop.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 I really start to root for back doors in like later May and June when it starts to save us from heat and humidity. Reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Reported. 47.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 It's a fascinating evolution from D5 through early 7... The last few runs of the GFS (operational) just refuse to dampen that ejecting SW impulse and instead conserves a lot of potency as it rides up and over the fledgling semi-permanent SE heat wall, What winds up happening is a snow event over far eastern Ontario that might even extend into northern/middle Maine, while it is comparatively balmy down here in SNE. ...But that's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Agreed Will ... I don't care what seasonal bias' may have played out any given year leading up to March, one is insane to preclude snow happening at all, IN a March. That's ...absurd... to the point where I think the intent there isn't so much to say what one really believes, but to try and coax words of soothing encouragement to elixir a real resentment/frustration over having to endure sensible weather that isn't in one's particular bevvy of interest areas. The response to those post should be, 'suck it up and do something else to fulfill your void'. When you read a post like, "Blah blah blah since it won't snow until next year", and have to read them on March 10th of any given year, the interpretation of all that encoded babble is really: "Please say something to make the anxiety and frustration go away; I really don't want it to be warm and beautiful and euphoric in March, I want it to snow. I want, I want, I want, I want, because we all know, that weather exists because of what I want, and since this era is proving that might not be true, it is proving more than I can bear. Please make it stop and say something to give me hope? Wah wah wah" So the correct response to "Blah blah blah since it won't snow until next year", should really not be a lengthy discourse into the scientifically meritous reasons why it can still snow despite the current nagging hate for what the models are indicating with above median confidence. The correct response should therefore be, 'Saying it won't snow again on March 10 of any given year is not going to actually make it snow - just stop.' No matter how emotionally invested in more snow events you are John..it won';t make it snow for you again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Because you could get a freak squall or something.. 2 inches generally wold mean a widespread snowfall..Balls in..or balls out? You said snow was done...you should feel good about no more measurable...what about a half inch? an inch? Two inches is hedging quite a bit so you can claim victory even if there is a 1-3" event but the airport doesn't record >2". In the spirit of your affirmations, you should not feel good about claiming victory if we get a 1-2" paste event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 47.1 46.7 I'm back in tropical mode and ready for my 60's. Saw some gold finches on the feeder this morning that are starting to get their summer colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 46.7 I'm back in tropical mode and ready for my 60's. Saw some gold finches on the feeder this morning that are starting to get their summer colors. Nice. I'm going out now to get some seed and nectar for the orioles/hummingbirds. I really want to attract the orioles again this year. 47.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 11:53 am: 48F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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