Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 He thinks a mean mild pattern means no snow...which is wrong obviously. Increase the storminess signal and we always have a shot...that's how got the 2/29-3/1 event and the 2/24 event...that week produced a more Nina like pattern with increased storminess....that 8-9 day period was above avg for temps, but we ended up with some snow. In the spring its even worse...you can have 850 temps that support highs near 60F and then support a snowstorm a day or two later with a cutoff. Very much in a agreement on that sentiment, Will... As you and I have discussed in recent past, it is more difficult when there is nothing happening at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You know I have to say...we should be looking forward to this warm up. Rarely if EVER does Tank Top Day co-incide with the start of the NCAA tourney. That's like an apocolypse of awesome. (If you don't know what tank top day is just shoot yourself now). As for the euro and whatnot...I agree witht the marine air intrustion sentiment. I suspect a fair number of areas in Maine, NH and even eastern VT will verify below the prog temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 euro actually has widespread 70s late next week. i think that's the first run it's actually shown 2-m temps contoured >70F. The maps I have has had them for the past few runs for various days in the d7-10 range. A couple of those days should be toasty even up here if we can dry out the soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yeah Euro 2m temps have shown 75-80 for 3 days now centered next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Euro ensembles try to end the party as well near the 23rd. The whole pattern sort of retros with the helping of ridging trying to put into se Greenland. Might be the beginning of the changes Ryan and I were talking about..but obviously we are far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Looking at my 7 day from Taunton I'm more astounded by the absurd overnight lows than the torching daytime highs. Low 40's by night. It will be colder imby but in general that's real warm for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 The euro op is an inferno. No back door with 2m temps of 60s Mon-Wed, 70s Thu, 60s Fri, and then 70s for Sat/Sun before falling back to the 60s Mon. What a weekend that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 EC Ens have U60s to 70s right through the 22nd before finally cooling it off a little bit by d14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Euro has BDL tickling 80 next weekend AWT..Just a full fledged summer weekend for St. Patty's Day. I am actually really looking forward to that. March madness starts Friday with day off from work and drinking all day and night..and then a summerlike weekend full of shorts, tees, and bikinis FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Still think the party may end later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 What will be will be. Went to home depot last night to check out new mowers (thinking I'm going with the Deere D140). Seemed a little premature to be sitting on one with the burst of heavy snow that came through. Managed to pick up .5" in a very short period of time. Sounds like I might need to consider some lawn prep next weekend....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Meanwhile +16 at 850 over Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Euro has BDL tickling 80 next weekend AWT..Just a full fledged summer weekend for St. Patty's Day. I am actually really looking forward to that. March madness starts Friday with day off from work and drinking all day and night..and then a summerlike weekend full of shorts, tees, and bikinis FTW Next weekend could be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Meanwhile +16 at 850 over Hudson Bay? Only 28C above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 all this warmth makes me more convince we get bookend storms this year. hope it doesn't ruin all the stuff that'll be blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 There could be seabreeze potential next weekend, but nothing that screams 45 and drizzle. Probably just enough to cool the coast a bit, but keep things warm just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 What's a bookend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 At the beginning of this thread I stated that the right side of the Wheeler diagram was favored by the surrounding hemispheric medium. NCEP's weekly MJO address: "... The current and upcoming phases of the MJO favor constructive interference with La Nina conditions for the majority of the period as enhanced convection related to the MJO increases over the Maritime continent. Above-average temperatures are favored for the eastern U.S. as the MJO enhanced phase shifts across the Maritime continent into the western Pacific. The MJO and La Nina favor enhanced moisture across parts of the Pacific Northwest, the northern tier of the contiguous U.S, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ..." I have also been discussing at times the idea that the MJO can either be in constructive, or deconstructive interference with the atmosphere on whole. I should be working at NCEP. They could not have said it cleaner, and the Phase 4 in my own hypothesis was/is very much a constructive MJO wave interference, and therefore, even approaching the wave spacing has a bigger than average correlative impact on the overall circulation system. And, that more than just seems - imho - to be what is going on with these balmy model runs, already sensibly measured with 2 days of warmth in the books. This is why - I believe - for 6 days and counting the nightly CPC, PNA computation has been showing a total of nearly 2.5 standard deviation rise in the index, going from just beneath -1 beginning about 5 days ago, to just over +1 in about 7 to 10 days; yet, the pattern from the eastern Pacific and how it relays over N/A could not be any more out of phase with that thinking. As a side note, one thing I find interesting as a product evaluation regards the PSU E-Wall, 8-10D means depiction. The GFS side is really not that out of phase if at all with the ECMWF side, yet the 21 member suit that is used to calculate the PNA values must clearly disagree with this - lest it would not continuously pound the notion of the rise in the index discussed above: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html Clearly there must be a disconnect there. I am intrigued to know what/why that is. It could be an interpretation issue on my pare; I am certainly open to that shortcoming. I believe the PSU E-Wall product is the operational run means. If nothing else, that would imply that the operational GFS is out of phase with it's own family and has been for quite some time. Folks are less interested in the degree of positive departures, or expectations in that regard altogether. Understood. So keeping this fair on both sides of the anomaly coin, my sense on the rest of this month is that your best shot at lower departures and any additional snow chances would come after the 20th of the month ..probably closer to closing it out. I am of moderate to above moderate confidence in that landscape of probabilities; which is not to say that I think it will snow between the 20th and the 31st. It is intended mean exactly what its says: the better potential will situate in that time span, comparatively. That said, it is obviously March, and one of the more fickle months of the year. Assuming that things are relatively well-behaved, it is very hard to refute the MJO's impact on the flow due to the constructive influence as discussed above. Moreover, it will take probably the full 10 days to get the MJO wave all the way around to the spacial terminus between Phase 6 and 7, which is when/where the wave's presence tends to excite some resetting of the Rossby dial - so to speak.. But, unfortunately, we should not get our hopes up too high, either, when that happens. Why? Because if you have been following this logic, that MJO then enters deconstructive interference again because obviously with the background ENSO state still is and will be what it is; and so enters a big question as to whether its impact (forcing) will be enough to punch through the muting affect and present on the circulation engine. I like the idea of slackening the gradients overall (seasonal climatology), and having wave-lengths in the means begin to decay. As is the MJO is forecast to weaken as it propagates around through the Marine sub-continent and heads into the western Pacific over the next 10 days. The last time the wave passed through those domains it was successfully potent through Phases 7-8-1. We are well aware that the [apparent] deconstructive nature those phase states have against the backdrop canvas of the whole atmosphere this season did not parlay too well with inducing storm expectations. So, ...eh. The GEFs mean is real though. It is based on real input grids where then slightly varying physics in each species of the GFS then carry out the signals to the end. Therefore, having such a coherent mean (looking above, every run is virtually on top of one another!) cannot be ignored entirely. Perhaps there are some background physics that these runs are keying into, but merely lack the consideration of the operational GFS and ECMWF (to mention the ECM's own cluster). But what does that perhaps imply should the MJO's handshake with ENSO turn ugly in 10 days? The PNA can be positive without the MJO's help. This is kind of like proverbially stretching the rubber band, and when the MJO relaxes away from the Marine sub-continent, SNAP! (25th - 5th). It's an idea I am definitely toying with, but am less confident of compared to the next 10 days. None of this includes relatively local spatial scaled concerns surrounding backdoor fronts and so forth. This is the 50,000 foot view. I am aware the operational runs have been fiddling with that idea for D7 at some point. Yeah, ...okay, it's March...April...May...sure. But the 12z Euro run yesterday was more prodigious in its depiction of that compared to the 00z run this last evening, so that shows that there is some instability - go figure for D7 - in the trends regarding that phenomenon. The GGEM was as usual substantially more "buckled" with the flow over central Canada leading up to then, which of course generates a strong +PP and overall baroclinic landscape near us and drives a c-front more properly NW-SE with chilling polar high on the backside - not likely. This is a typical GGEM bias as this time range. That said, the GFS operational runs have been all over the map the last 24 hours with the sfc PP evolution, so it is difficult to get a good bead on what it actually wants to do with the isobaric layout/evolution. I think the mean of the mid-levels, perhaps with an additional nod toward the ECMWF operational blend with its ensemble mean is the way to go, and then use fluid dynamical common sense on placing any backdoor wind shifts accordingly. Ending thought: We are entering a very tasty time of year past the ides of March. Certain teleconnector values may not imply the same result as they might in mid January. Not speaking to the PNA, or the EPO or the NAO, per se, but just that as these domains fluctuate/pulse upward and downward, the shorter wave lengths force the conclusion that +1 or -1 value in either of these can't possibly mean the same thing as it would during the heart of the cold season. Just something to keep in mind. 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weatherMA Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Tomorrow should be a nice late March like day..cold start but getting up to the 50s in the afternoon. After that, its amazing how warm we could get for mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Highs in the mid 70s up into Maine next weekend on the gfs. Lows in the 50s on Saturday night up here, and it looks like DC could pull off a 61/82 type day, which is above ORH's max summer climo high/low. Even ORH could pull a 52/74 or so which would be average for early June...and a +25 on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Tomorrow should be a nice late March like day..cold start but getting up to the 50s in the afternoon. After that, its amazing how warm we could get for mid March. Is it really that amazing? If the above normality was just starting like back in November, then I'd say "wow this is amazing" but, considering that these highs will probably range about +10 to +20 degrees above normal, all of this doesn't really amaze me anymore. I'm expecting it. Its just a wash rinse and repeat. What would amaze me more if March was normal or slightly above normal. Then I would be like "Holy Crap!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Is it really that amazing? If the above normality was just starting like back in November, then I'd say "wow this is amazing" but, considering that these highs will probably range about +10 to +20 degrees above normal, all of this doesn't really amaze me anymore. I'm expecting it. Its just a wash rinse and repeat. What would amaze me more if March was normal or slightly above normal. Then I would be like "Holy Crap!" Kind of. I think March is actually around normal to date before tomorrow when we will start rising and then be way above in a week. But yeah its not just +10 to +15 stuff. If we got a few days of 80/55 (not saying we will for sure) that could be a few days around +30. If we got +30 in the summer we'd be talking about 108/89 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 The Euro has almost everyone east of the Rockies in the 70s/80s on Mon the 18th. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yes, no question this GFS run's mid levels are spectacular for warmth at episodes over the next 10 -13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 Woa, this run actually has a warm frontal MCS at D8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Look how nicely models are handeling the pattern 10 days out. I think that ridge can be displaced 1000 miles and it'd still be 70f and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Kind of. I think March is actually around normal to date before tomorrow when we will start rising and then be way above in a week. But yeah its not just +10 to +15 stuff. If we got a few days of 80/55 (not saying we will for sure) that could be a few days around +30. If we got +30 in the summer we'd be talking about 108/89 days... Yeah I really don't think ORH will hit 80 on any day let alone multiple... As you said ORH averages 78/59 in July. This pattern is screaming way above normal obviously but 80F and 1000ft is totally different than 80F at like BDL or something, which is really possible I think. Like look at Thursday, ORH hit 64 while lower elevations in mass hit 70-71.... While the pattern screams warmth, make sure you look at that kind of stuff. It could be 79 at BDL and only 72-74 at ORH. Still +20-25 but not jaw dropping for mid to late march...especially after the warm winter we had that was filled with +15-20 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 I think what is jaw dropping is the length of this hellacious incoming torch...probably 10 days or more Add that to the 12+ months of positive departiures overall...sickening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yeah I really don't think ORH will hit 80 on any day let alone multiple... As you said ORH averages 78/59 in July. This pattern is screaming way above normal obviously but 80F and 1000ft is totally different than 80F at like BDL or something, which is really possible I think. Like look at Thursday, ORH hit 64 while lower elevations in mass hit 70-71.... While the pattern screams warmth, make sure you look at that kind of stuff. It could be 79 at BDL and only 72-74 at ORH. Still +20-25 but not jaw dropping for mid to late march...especially after the warm winter we had that was filled with +15-20 days lol The odds of ORH meeting or exceeding 80F at any time during this stretch as suggested by climatology alone, would be a rare event. I think ORH made 80+ heat during the 3 days of 1998, March 29-31st. Will would know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yeah I really don't think ORH will hit 80 on any day let alone multiple... As you said ORH averages 78/59 in July. This pattern is screaming way above normal obviously but 80F and 1000ft is totally different than 80F at like BDL or something, which is really possible I think. Like look at Thursday, ORH hit 64 while lower elevations in mass hit 70-71.... While the pattern screams warmth, make sure you look at that kind of stuff. It could be 79 at BDL and only 72-74 at ORH. Still +20-25 but not jaw dropping for mid to late march...especially after the warm winter we had that was filled with +15-20 days lol I know lol....what I think is impressive about this warm-up is surrounded by the 70s could be 60s...its not like it will sharply cool down to normal. I think its more the duration then the actual temperatures that are impressive. Starting tomorrow it could be 10 days or more in the upper 50s or higher when normal's are still in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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