Ji Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Nobody is getting to 70..not even close if models are right this weekend. do you guys know where ORH is? He has turned up missing and is holding up our entire draft. We havent heard from him in 24 plus hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Congrats Scooter..you get your wish with a backdoor Sat..Still looks nice Sunday and beyond though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Congrats Scooter..you get your wish with a backdoor Sat..Still looks nice Sunday and beyond though yeah that's definitely not a nice look to saturday anymore. cool and damp. the week as a whole looks decent - though we don't truly maximize the warmth over the next 5 or 6 days...i guess we come close today but it's not a vintage inferno pattern with the ridge axis and surface HP placement at times. but no complaints. :sizzle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Kevin, get it through your bald skull... no one takes your forecasts seriously!!!!! Hahaha Why do you even try to make meteorological statements? WOTY!!!!! 13. 13 at the oldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 what an epic disaster for saturday if the the models are right...Euro is horrible....40s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Boston must be downsloping today because I'm supposed to be cooler than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Am I far enough west to avoid this back door stuff Saturday? Like I said yesterday I'll take 70's over 40's if snow chances are gone. what an epic disaster for saturday if the the models are right...Euro is horrible....40s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 yeah that's definitely not a nice look to saturday anymore. cool and damp. the week as a whole looks decent - though we don't truly maximize the warmth over the next 5 or 6 days...i guess we come close today but it's not a vintage inferno pattern with the ridge axis and surface HP placement at times. but no complaints. :sizzle: Looks like we have to wit till Sunday and esp early next week for the real heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Looks like we have to wit till Sunday and esp early next week for the real heat Goofball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 what an epic disaster for saturday if the the models are right...Euro is horrible....40s for highs. Looks like 70-80 for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Congrats Scooter..you get your wish with a backdoor Sat..Still looks nice Sunday and beyond though Hey I don't want it, but it ends the nonsense on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 In honor of Jerry ...a sign of the upcoming weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 0z euro is gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I know I was saying last week that the ridge axis and upstream AK trough looked a bit too far west to avoid back doors. But at the time I was grasping at hope for another winter wx event this week. Now I'd just assume we avoid chilly 40's. 0z euro is gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 it feels/sounds/smells like one of those warm May mornings right now. temp is soaring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 it feels/sounds/smells like one of those warm May mornings right now. temp is soaring too. Yeah birds are out and everything. So.....how is mother nature going to punk us down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Yeah birds are out and everything. So.....how is mother nature going to punk us down the road? You will get a snowstorm in a few weeks that is so big, you will end the season by getting up to your average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 You will get a snowstorm in a few weeks that is so big, you will end the season by getting up to your average snowfall. Cool. 4/1/97 en route then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Yeah birds are out and everything. So.....how is mother nature going to punk us down the road? well at least an interlude of disaster on saturday if the overnight runs are right. that could be an ugly day...especially vs what it looked like. the pattern overall is obviously a warm one but still isn't "perfect" for us as it keeps the option of cool HP slipping down from the north. still can't believe this though - it's so easy to forget what the calendar says when seeing these daily wx charts and then looking down at your car thermo and seeing 54F at 9AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 well at least an interlude of disaster on saturday if the overnight runs are right. that could be an ugly day...especially vs what it looked like. the pattern overall is obviously a warm one but still isn't "perfect" for us as it keeps the option of cool HP slipping down from the north. still can't believe this though - it's so easy to forget what the calendar says when seeing these daily wx charts and then looking down at your car thermo and seeing 54F at 9AM. I know it. Even 40F in the morning before mid March is ridiculous. I'm pretty pissed about Saturday. I hope the GFS is right..lol. Euro would have me jumping off the Pru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Cool. 4/1/97 en route then. This year was so bad in BOS that even a 4/1/97 wouldn't get them to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Cool. 4/1/97 en route then. That would be awesome. Any thing can happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 LOL, I highly doubt a few days in the 80s. Agree, but look at today, I'm already at 53 degrees at what's really 9am! Alot of the days will bust warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This year was so bad in BOS that even a 4/1/97 wouldn't get them to average. Yikes. Sad indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Yeah birds are out and everything. So.....how is mother nature going to punk us down the road? A Scott ...Phill, Will...all , now that the immediate passion and awe for the scope of what the models were signaling has warn off and objectivity has kicked back in ... I am not overally impressed with this ridge amplitude. Fact of the matter is, you don't always register +15 to +20 F surface temperatures off of 574dm heights. Granted, the GFS operational has come around to the notion of 582dm ridge node out there in starlet hopes and dream time frames, but there are problems with that in my estimation, too. Firstly, excluding those GFS notions for a moment ... without them, this ridge is highly compressible in all quadrants. It's loosely rimmed without a very strong coherent core; this can be seen in how the isopleths that circumvavigate it area have multiple curvi-linear facets to it. This ridge really appears to be a default node because the evolution of the quatra-hemispheric synoptic scope simply won't supply the westerly wind band into the SE CONUS. As far as the GFS ridge signal, I suspect it is over-doing things a little. I believe the current western trough, easter ridge scenario is highly imprinted off the MJO's romp through Phase 4, where NCEP also noted the other day, that happens to be a constructive interference on the circulation system as a whole - meaning that Phase 4 gets to correlated more on pattern results than Phases on the tastier side of the Wheeler graph. So...yeah, it's supported. But by the time we get to next week that phase is entering 6 already and weakening, and with the background canvas still flagging a +PNA (merely currently damped), that could/should have an impact on the longevity and amplitude of the current height distribution across N/A. We cash in on a few wonderful euphoric spring warmth days because because of our "default ridge", but at just about any time ...not too dissimilar to what the ECMWF operational depicted per last night's run, impulses will "dent" the ridge. It may not mean much sensibly; I mean, I don't see it meaning snow across the next 10 days. But I don't believe it will be like today, everyday. Also, coastal communities will likely be "puked" as Scott coined, at just about any time because the gradient will be weak at times, and any heating in the interior to +15F anomalies in March, when the oceanic/land inferface BL differential is about as extreme as imaginable given that environmental conditioning will have to mean on-shore flows developing and muting the wamth there. Whose to know/say when and/or how far it pentrates, but if the 00z Euro is right there would probably be some penetration quite far west at times. I still believe it snows again this year after this 10 period at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Agree, but look at today, I'm already at 53 degrees at what's really 9am! Alot of the days will bust warm It will be mild, but I don't see widespread 70s or anything. The ridge is too far west to get good SW flow in here. You can have 576 thicknesses but if high pressure is overhead..it will not be anything impressive. The next two weeks could have occasional interludes of seabreezes and backdoors...but will probably be mild overall. Today may be the best day in the next 7 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 today is one of those days...if it were july we'd have places nearing 90F right to the coast at this hour with this nice light W BL flow. but march...so 55-60F instead. but still impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 A Scott ...Phill, Will...all , now that the immediate passion and awe for the scope of what the models were signaling has warn off and objectivity has kicked back in ... I am not overally impressed with this ridge amplitude. Fact of the matter is, you don't always register +15 to +20 F surface temperatures off of 574dm heights. Granted, the GFS operational has come around to the notion of 582dm ridge node out there in starlet hopes and dream time frames, but there are problems with that in my estimation, too. Firstly, excluding those GFS notions for a moment ... without them, this ridge is highly compressible in all quadrants. It's loosely rimmed without a very strong coherent core; this can be seen in how the isopleths that circumvavigate it area have multiple curvi-linear facets to it. This ridge really appears to be a default node because the evolution of the quatra-hemispheric synoptic scope simply won't supply the westerly wind band into the SE CONUS. As far as the GFS ridge signal, I suspect it is over-doing things a little. I believe the current western trough, easter ridge scenario is highly imprinted off the MJO's romp through Phase 4, where NCEP also noted the other day, that happens to be a constructive interference on the circulation system as a whole - meaning that Phase 4 gets to correlated more on pattern results than Phases on the tastier side of the Wheeler graph. So...yeah, it's supported. But by the time we get to next week that phase is entering 6 already and weakening, and with the background canvas still flagging a +PNA (merely currently damped), that could/should have an impact on the longevity and amplitude of the current height distribution across N/A. We cash in on a few wonderful euphoric spring warmth days because because of our "default ridge", but at just about any time ...not too dissimilar to what the ECMWF operational depicted per last night's run, impulses will "dent" the ridge. It may not mean much sensibly; I mean, I don't see it meaning snow across the next 10 days. But I don't believe it will be like today, everyday. Also, coastal communities will likely be "puked" as Scott coined, at just about any time because the gradient will weak at times, and any heating in the interior to +15F in March, when the oceanic/land inferface BL differential is about as extreme as imaginable given that environmental conditioning will have to mean on-shore flows developing and muting the wamth there. Whose to know/say when and/or how far it pentrates, but if the 00z Euro is right there would probably be some penetration quite far west at times. I still believe it snows again this year after this 10 period at some point. In a way, I'm glad the interlude of seabreeze and backdoor may happen...because it shows you how climo tries to fight back. It will be an overall mild pattern for sure, but sorry to those folks who thought leaf out would occur near 4/1. I hate them as much as the next person, but this time of year is extremely hard to get prolonged warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 This year was so bad in BOS that even a 4/1/97 wouldn't get them to average. I want to forget this winter ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 Woa! FIT in one hour: 121352 CLR 10 57 28 3004 255 121252 CLR 10 45 30 0000 255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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