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2012 Winter Banter Thread #3


yoda

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Its because this is likely our biggest threat for the winter... and better than any marginal crap... and looks like a MIller A

how do you get to that conclusion 150 hours out? this is the root of our problem. this is starting to feel like the twilight zone.

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how do you get to that conclusion 150 hours out? this is the root of our problem. this is starting to feel like the twilight zone.

Depends on your perpspective of the statement. It's probably the biggest "modeled" threat of the year so it's pretty normal to pay it more attention than the others. Even with that being said, going all in here is asking for a big letdown.

Winter is fast running out so I'm hoping we at least get to chase something for a week even if nothing happens. Better than chasing a 15 day out pattern change. We finally checked that off our list a few weeks ago.

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We've had big or bigger storms on models at this range earlier in the winter. I remember the last one was the one to break the spell until it disintegrated.

I don't remember that and haven't written many threat articles so I must not have been too impressed. To me this one is a decent threat to have a low off the NC coast but that still might not be enough.

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I don't remember that and haven't written many threat articles so I must not have been too impressed. To me this one is a decent threat to have a low off the NC coast but that still might not be enough.

It's been a while and the few were more one or two run wonders. The Euro has certainly had a few d5-7 fantasy storm this winter. There is probably more agreement here for now at least on a NC area low. Tho they don't all come together the same way.

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I wonder how many freak outs are going to happen every 6-12 hours. I'm growing tired of the "models are horrible" or "coin flips are more accurate" or "don't worry it will show something completely different in 12 hours".

The type of storm that the euro showed earlier is probably one of the most difficult types of storms to model @ 5+ days. Why is it so hard to understand that a fast flow loaded with little features is basically mathmatically impossible to solve at long range? I would be very surprised if the euro still shows it tonight but that doesn't mean the chances of it happening have gotten any smaller.

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I wonder how many freak outs are going to happen every 6-12 hours. I'm growing tired of the "models are horrible" or "coin flips are more accurate" or "don't worry it will show something completely different in 12 hours".

The type of storm that the euro showed earlier is probably one of the most difficult types of storms to model @ 5+ days. Why is it so hard to understand that a fast flow loaded with little features is basically mathmatically impossible to solve at long range? I would be very surprised if the euro still shows it tonight but that doesn't mean the chances of it happening have gotten any smaller.

I'm riding the UKMET on this one. The second-best model is not likely to be wrong. Sure, the next run might show a hurricane hitting Scotland, but so what? It is the OVERALL TREND that matters folks!

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Weren't there a few coastals in the late fall that folks thought was a good sign for the winter? That seems to happen every fall, I think.

yes.. i think that was the main period into early winter tho there was 1 for sure later (like a month or so ago) if not 2.

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I'm riding the UKMET on this one. The second-best model is not likely to be wrong. Sure, the next run might show a hurricane hitting Scotland, but so what? It is the OVERALL TREND that matters folks!

part of the problem here tho is that when people see a big L off the coast they go to giant snowstorm. even if we get the L nina climo says something's going to fook it up. we just don't usually get that big of snow events. and yeah some will claim they have it all in perspecitve but that's 100% untrue looking at a number of the commnts etc.

but "hardest to model" and "fast flow" should be red flags at the very least.

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part of the problem here tho is that when people see a big L off the coast they go to giant snowstorm. even if we get the L nina climo says something's going to fook it up. we just don't usually get that big of snow events. and yeah some will claim they have it all in perspecitve but that's 100% untrue looking at a number of the commnts etc.

but "hardest to model" and "fast flow" should be red flags at the very least.

I think people are anxious to "break loose." God help you if some 12Z or 00Z Euro/GFS run in a few days shows a legit hit. I think there are a ton of lurking weenies who won't be able to help themselves in that case. I am waiting for the deluge of posts asking about impacts on flights or the train schedule 5 days out...

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I think people are anxious to "break loose." God help you if some 12Z or 00Z Euro/GFS run in a few days shows a legit hit. I think there are a ton of lurking weenies who won't be able to help themselves in that case. I am waiting for the deluge of posts asking about impacts on flights or the train schedule 5 days out...

Well, if it means I get more than a 1/2" that melts in 15 minutes I can deal with weenieism dam bursting. We haven't even had a storm mode this year have we? The 5 post hammer will be getting dropped every 5 minutes.

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Oct snowstorm was the biggest storm. On a really psitive note, everyone is quite polite on the weekend storm discussion thread. I am just waiting for the models to fall apart. Starting a new thread, this winter at least, is always the KOD... I suppose it is really just about tracking, as some have noted. But anyone who has paid attention this Winter should appreciate the time and thought that many have taken in analyzing the models.

And what a cool Sat we had!

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Can someone explain how to read the spaghetti GEFS that Ellinwood posted in the storm thread?

It's pretty easy. Each line in a group of colors represents and individual ensemble member. Each individual color represents a specific 850 temp. +10, 0, & 10 on the plot Ellinwood posted. The larger the swath of each color represents a larger spread in the individual ensemble solutions. The white lines show the average of all the members.

It's a great tool really. When the members are grouped closely, forecasting can be done with higher confidence and vice versa. The map you're asking about showed a large spread so it's pretty clear that the model is struggling with how to handle the pattern.

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