Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Its because this is likely our biggest threat for the winter... and better than any marginal crap... and looks like a MIller A how do you get to that conclusion 150 hours out? this is the root of our problem. this is starting to feel like the twilight zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 no.. im just rationalizing the rationalizing. Ah okay - just trying to stay on the same page as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 how do you get to that conclusion 150 hours out? this is the root of our problem. this is starting to feel like the twilight zone. Depends on your perpspective of the statement. It's probably the biggest "modeled" threat of the year so it's pretty normal to pay it more attention than the others. Even with that being said, going all in here is asking for a big letdown. Winter is fast running out so I'm hoping we at least get to chase something for a week even if nothing happens. Better than chasing a 15 day out pattern change. We finally checked that off our list a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We've had big or bigger storms on models at this range earlier in the winter. I remember the last one was the one to break the spell until it disintegrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We've had big or bigger storms on models at this range earlier in the winter. I remember the last one was the one to break the spell until it disintegrated. I don't remember that and haven't written many threat articles so I must not have been too impressed. To me this one is a decent threat to have a low off the NC coast but that still might not be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't remember that and haven't written many threat articles so I must not have been too impressed. To me this one is a decent threat to have a low off the NC coast but that still might not be enough. Wes be careful giving us weenie's hope, it may get ugly in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Wes - don't start talkin' dirty to us....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Already Ellinwood? Wes leaving bread crumbs again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't remember that and haven't written many threat articles so I must not have been too impressed. To me this one is a decent threat to have a low off the NC coast but that still might not be enough. It's been a while and the few were more one or two run wonders. The Euro has certainly had a few d5-7 fantasy storm this winter. There is probably more agreement here for now at least on a NC area low. Tho they don't all come together the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We've had big or bigger storms on models at this range earlier in the winter. I remember the last one was the one to break the spell until it disintegrated. The only one I can recall is that one Euro run where DT posted a snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think Bethesda Boy's winter forecast verifies for DCA/BWI this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The only one I can recall is that one Euro run where DT posted a snow map. It's been a while.. and there were not many instances. Maybe 3 or 4? Several were early season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Already Ellinwood? Wes leaving bread crumbs again... I don't know whether I'm punting or faking it at this point, though the chance I'll throw it or run with it for a first down is fairly low. Let's just say my foot's ready to kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 i might have to take back the statement that we have less weenies than other subforums the weenie clean up crew is always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think Bethesda Boy's winter forecast verifies for DCA/BWI this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It would be pretty sad if the October snowstorm was my biggest of the winter. From October 29: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It would be pretty sad if the October snowstorm was my biggest of the winter. From October 29: Wow, what a wonderful picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I wonder how many freak outs are going to happen every 6-12 hours. I'm growing tired of the "models are horrible" or "coin flips are more accurate" or "don't worry it will show something completely different in 12 hours". The type of storm that the euro showed earlier is probably one of the most difficult types of storms to model @ 5+ days. Why is it so hard to understand that a fast flow loaded with little features is basically mathmatically impossible to solve at long range? I would be very surprised if the euro still shows it tonight but that doesn't mean the chances of it happening have gotten any smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It's been a while.. and there were not many instances. Maybe 3 or 4? Several were early season. Weren't there a few coastals in the late fall that folks thought was a good sign for the winter? That seems to happen every fall, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I wonder how many freak outs are going to happen every 6-12 hours. I'm growing tired of the "models are horrible" or "coin flips are more accurate" or "don't worry it will show something completely different in 12 hours". The type of storm that the euro showed earlier is probably one of the most difficult types of storms to model @ 5+ days. Why is it so hard to understand that a fast flow loaded with little features is basically mathmatically impossible to solve at long range? I would be very surprised if the euro still shows it tonight but that doesn't mean the chances of it happening have gotten any smaller. I'm riding the UKMET on this one. The second-best model is not likely to be wrong. Sure, the next run might show a hurricane hitting Scotland, but so what? It is the OVERALL TREND that matters folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Weren't there a few coastals in the late fall that folks thought was a good sign for the winter? That seems to happen every fall, I think. yes.. i think that was the main period into early winter tho there was 1 for sure later (like a month or so ago) if not 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm riding the UKMET on this one. The second-best model is not likely to be wrong. Sure, the next run might show a hurricane hitting Scotland, but so what? It is the OVERALL TREND that matters folks! part of the problem here tho is that when people see a big L off the coast they go to giant snowstorm. even if we get the L nina climo says something's going to fook it up. we just don't usually get that big of snow events. and yeah some will claim they have it all in perspecitve but that's 100% untrue looking at a number of the commnts etc. but "hardest to model" and "fast flow" should be red flags at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 im going through significant tornadoes to soothe myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 part of the problem here tho is that when people see a big L off the coast they go to giant snowstorm. even if we get the L nina climo says something's going to fook it up. we just don't usually get that big of snow events. and yeah some will claim they have it all in perspecitve but that's 100% untrue looking at a number of the commnts etc. but "hardest to model" and "fast flow" should be red flags at the very least. I think people are anxious to "break loose." God help you if some 12Z or 00Z Euro/GFS run in a few days shows a legit hit. I think there are a ton of lurking weenies who won't be able to help themselves in that case. I am waiting for the deluge of posts asking about impacts on flights or the train schedule 5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It would be pretty sad if the October snowstorm was my biggest of the winter. From October 29: Where in Jefferson was that? I drove up to Braddok heights at 1000ft and It was only like 2" and not sticking to the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think people are anxious to "break loose." God help you if some 12Z or 00Z Euro/GFS run in a few days shows a legit hit. I think there are a ton of lurking weenies who won't be able to help themselves in that case. I am waiting for the deluge of posts asking about impacts on flights or the train schedule 5 days out... Well, if it means I get more than a 1/2" that melts in 15 minutes I can deal with weenieism dam bursting. We haven't even had a storm mode this year have we? The 5 post hammer will be getting dropped every 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Oct snowstorm was the biggest storm. On a really psitive note, everyone is quite polite on the weekend storm discussion thread. I am just waiting for the models to fall apart. Starting a new thread, this winter at least, is always the KOD... I suppose it is really just about tracking, as some have noted. But anyone who has paid attention this Winter should appreciate the time and thought that many have taken in analyzing the models. And what a cool Sat we had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can someone explain how to read the spaghetti GEFS that Ellinwood posted in the storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can someone explain how to read the spaghetti GEFS that Ellinwood posted in the storm thread? It's pretty easy. Each line in a group of colors represents and individual ensemble member. Each individual color represents a specific 850 temp. +10, 0, & 10 on the plot Ellinwood posted. The larger the swath of each color represents a larger spread in the individual ensemble solutions. The white lines show the average of all the members. It's a great tool really. When the members are grouped closely, forecasting can be done with higher confidence and vice versa. The map you're asking about showed a large spread so it's pretty clear that the model is struggling with how to handle the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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