weatherMA Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow at the goofus. I know looking at the qpf is silly at day 6/7, but incredible area of 1"+...and jackpot area of 2.75+ Too bad it brushes the NC coast and then goes OTS....congrats to the fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Hey scooter, what do you look at to see this "phase" of the southern and northern streams? Check out the trough orientation at hr 120. Notice how we have the polar vortex moving into Hudson Bay with a lobe extending into the Great Lakes. Also notice the strung out area of vorticity going around the base of the trough. Now notice the shortwave trough across Colorado and also the ULL diving through Mexico. At hr 144, now look at the orientation of the trough. Notice how both troughs...the piece by the Great Lakes and the CO trough, and even the weakening ULL in Mexico all are sort of lined up or pretty close to it. Usually, you want to see the s/w's diving on the back side of the trough and they should be in alignment. In this case, the s/w energy across the southwest is a little west and out of placement with the energy diving into MN, but the alignment is much closer and not far from something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I dunno....we've watched quite a few changes/threats a week or so away since November? We've had 1 pattern change so far...that was in January for 9 or 10 days that brought the only week that resembled winter around here...didn't give any huge storms (except for the southern folks who got that band on Jan 21) but we had several smaller snow events. This is the 2nd pattern change supposedly for the better...hasn't verified yet so we'll see what happens. If we get nothing out of this, then it will be a failed attempt. Anything else this winter in early Jan or all of December has had nothing remotely interesting inside of 100 hours except a possible advisory event on the 23rd for the elevated interior that trended too warm in the last 24 hours. Even this threat is not insde of 100 hours...but we've been touting a chance at something between Feb 8-Feb 12...and hopefully after a brief moderation around Feb 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like we'll miss this run to the east, but that trend of more defined energy to the south looks better...I'd actually love to see that become dominant and have the PV lift northeast at the same time...we did see some impressive ensemble members at 06z show what would happen if the southern energy got more involved Yeah I saw those members. It would definitetly be nice. Look how sneaky tha ULL is diving from CA into Mexico..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like we'll miss this run to the east, but that trend of more defined energy to the south looks better...I'd actually love to see that become dominant and have the PV lift northeast at the same time...we did see some impressive ensemble members at 06z show what would happen if the southern energy got more involved Probably not worth analyzing but do you think the s/w I circled here ruined our ridging out west this run? I'm guessing we would want to see it trend weaker: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Check out the trough orientation at hr 120. Notice how we have the polar vortex moving into Hudson Bay with a lobe extending into the Great Lakes. Also notice the strung out area of vorticity going around the base of the trough. You da man Scott thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 You da man Scott thanks Yup, thanks Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We've had 1 pattern change so far...that was in January for 9 or 10 days that brought the only week that resembled winter around here...didn't give any huge storms (except for the southern folks who got that band on Jan 21) but we had several smaller snow events. This is the 2nd pattern change supposedly for the better...hasn't verified yet so we'll see what happens. If we get nothing out of this, then it will be a failed attempt. Anything else this winter in early Jan or all of December has had nothing remotely interesting inside of 100 hours except a possible advisory event on the 23rd for the elevated interior that trended too warm in the last 24 hours. Even this threat is not insde of 100 hours...but we've been touting a chance at something between Feb 8-Feb 12...and hopefully after a brief moderation around Feb 14-15 Yeah, I know I was exaggerating a bit....it just seems like we've been waiting for more less not much. At least there is something to watch, sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We've had 1 pattern change so far...that was in January for 9 or 10 days that brought the only week that resembled winter around here...didn't give any huge storms (except for the southern folks who got that band on Jan 21) but we had several smaller snow events. This is the 2nd pattern change supposedly for the better...hasn't verified yet so we'll see what happens. If we get nothing out of this, then it will be a failed attempt. Anything else this winter in early Jan or all of December has had nothing remotely interesting inside of 100 hours except a possible advisory event on the 23rd for the elevated interior that trended too warm in the last 24 hours. Even this threat is not insde of 100 hours...but we've been touting a chance at something between Feb 8-Feb 12...and hopefully after a brief moderation around Feb 14-15 There's really nothing else worth talking about or looking at, so its at least something to monitor. It may very well go out to sea but maybe if everyone "wills" it to happen things will break just right. Worst case scenario is the pattern continues to be as boring as it is now. 12z GFS is awful... cold and dry for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Remember the TS the GFS had at day 15 two weeks ago, 90 L! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 As we wait for the Euro... GFS has been remarkably consistent on this Feb 10-12 storm potential for so far in advance... Ginx started this thread Feb 1 with GFS maps, and almost every run since then it has shown this through Feb 5. Euro has been pretty consistent showing essentially nothing. I don't know if this has to do with differences in MJO forecast noted in the main weather forum, handling of multiple pieces of energy in a changing pattern, or what. But it will be interesting to see who caves, and who verifies. We've had these divides before this winter, this is setting up to be one of the biggest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The GFS is pretty close to phasing at hr 144. Lots of energy in the gulf down there at 144 I'm actually kind of impressed by this run. Man if the pieces aligned just a bit better....this would be a beast. Say it with me, everyone....."Looks great @....." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Middle of winter and you would think its summer on this board with very few thread post in a pretty boring winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Say it with me, everyone....."Looks great @....." Always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not a lot of time to go through at the moment. Did yo guys mention the 00z GGEM? That was a massive event at D6+ for much of the area. The inCREdibly reliable "GONAPS" model wasn't too far off, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In all seriousness, this is likely the best shot of the winter....anytime you have a PV in the vicinity of Hudson's Bay, the stakes are high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 As we wait for the Euro... GFS has been remarkably consistent on this Feb 10-12 storm potential for so far in advance... Ginx started this thread Feb 1 with GFS maps, and almost every run since then it has shown this through Feb 5. Euro has been pretty consistent showing essentially nothing. I don't know if this has to do with differences in MJO forecast noted in the main weather forum, handling of multiple pieces of energy in a changing pattern, or what. But it will be interesting to see who caves, and who verifies. We've had these divides before this winter, this is setting up to be one of the biggest so far. The threat is likely to fail...that is an inherent trait about storm threats at this time range no matter how good the pattern looks...GFS could win on the overall pattern and the storm threat still fail...and vice versa...EC could win on the pattern but we get lucky and the storm happens. But I'm hoping to come out of it with at least an advisory snowfall in this 4-5 days period coming up. Hopefully we do, but I won't be surprised if we don't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is essentially pointless, but the 12z GEFS members definitely incorporated some of the southern stream energy into their solutions. Numerous weenie solutions with a slug of GOM moisture incorporated into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro doesn't incorporate any of the southern stream so its just a big cold front that comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro doesn't incorporate any of the southern stream so its just a big cold front that comes through. A Ray special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It sould be noted though that the southern extention of the pv lobe digs about 500 miles further south than the 00z run so that would certainly make for an interesting setup if it decides it wants to eject some of the southern stream eastward in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 A Ray special. Futility ftw. Will can lecture me on stats all he wants, but if next week fails, we're only a couple weeks off from Kev's favorite winter month. Tic, toc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 In all seriousness, this is likely the best shot of the winter....anytime you have a PV in the vicinity of Hudson's Bay, the stakes are high. true, but we've had a PV lurk in these parts earlier in January... cold and dry... add to that a well-timed potent juicy shortwave out of the GOM like may have, and suddenly we're in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 true, but we've had a PV lurk in these parts earlier in January... cold and dry... add to that a well-timed potent juicy shortwave out of the GOM like may have, and suddenly we're in business Climo is better at this stage, though.....if you're looking for a big kahuna in these parts, it's akin to July vs August in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Cold and dry is a very possible outcome with a PV hanging around, too....which is what I mean by the stakes being higher, it can be absolute euphoria, or some of the most cold and dry misery imaginable.....at least we don't have any true arctic air around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro bias of holding southern energy back in the SW US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The most viable threat is the probability that Feb is +3+ for most climo sites by months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It sould be noted though that the southern extention of the pv lobe digs about 500 miles further south than the 00z run so that would certainly make for an interesting setup if it decides it wants to eject some of the southern stream eastward in future runs. Did it lose the advisory snows it had for Wed nite/ Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Did it lose the advisory snows it had for Wed nite/ Thursday? It had advisory snow for one run...that was 3 runs ago...it continues to show light snow though. Like 1-2" perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The most viable threat is the probability that Feb is +3+ for most climo sites by months end. I'm honestly very intrigued by this....at first I was trolling out of frustration, but not so much anymore. If next week can fail, the rest of FEB is likely cooked....literally. March would be the only few weeks standing between history and me. Hopefully we can avoid some lame, interior focused advisory event, and either go big or futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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