CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Beleve me..I'm not excited about this one. My curiosity is peaked, but after the sobering news you guys delivered past 14 days...I'm numb..Not comfortably like Tip..Just numb Nobody is trying to be a Debbie...just that we'd hate to see people get excited, and then post things like "what happened to our big cold and snow..." when it wasn't a lock. There are a few chances down the road, but not all may be wintry. We'll take what we can get. Hopefully this trends colder for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northeastah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On no...I live right on the turnpike. Well, in the Helloween storm N of the Pike was the difference between 1-2 days w/o power and 1-2 weeks w/o power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It has a high to our north...something we have not seen all year. Well the pre thanksgiving swfe had a high and that trended cooler inside of 3 days. Maybe that will bode well for parts of sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have to say we see the phrase"esp. north of the pike" tossed around so often..esp this winter..and so far it hasn't mattered one iota . If this one is to be wintry at all I 'm not sure if we have to use that term. That phrase annoys me more than anything else does on this board. I cringe when I see people use that. It's like someone scraping nails on a chalkboard the pike is a fairly decent reference point...that's the main reason i use it. it can be a good way to mark off the haves/have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I doubt you'd be complaining if the common phrase were south of the pike. When I lived in Boston, and then just outside of Boston the phrase I hated the most was north and west of 495, although during those times, the phrase was usually spot on. Everyone hates hearing that they're going to be on the wrong side of the line. For me here in coastal Maine it's "foothills and mountains." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nobody is trying to be a Debbie...just that we'd hate to see people get excited, and then post things like "what happened to our big cold and snow..." when it wasn't a lock. There are a few chances down the road, but not all may be wintry. We'll take what we can get. Hopefully this trends colder for you. I hope we don't have to bump my Snowless winter thread with AWT's in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Nam is warm and rain out towards its useless range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the pike is a fairly decent reference point...that's the main reason i use it. it can be a good way to mark off the haves/have nots. A better reference point would be N and west of I-84.. let's use that from now on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 On no...I live right on the turnpike. Your on the line...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well the pre thanksgiving swfe had a high and that trended cooler inside of 3 days. Maybe that will bode well for parts of sne Yeah true...forgot about that. High's mean everything because it aids in ageostrophic flow. That's actually a good high as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 A better reference point would be N and west of I-84.. let's use that from now on trust me, nothing is worse than "40N", nothing and it's every year, every week, and sometimes every day in every week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think the Euro Ensembles are breaking down the ridge a bit to fast... but I do think we need to start capitalizing quickly on this pattern because I think it breaks down more quickly than any of us want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nam looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 trust me, nothing is worse than "40N", nothing and it's every year, every week, and sometimes every day in every week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nam looks colder. Its rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah true...forgot about that. High's mean everything because it aids in ageostrophic flow. That's actually a good high as modeled. yeah on the euro you can actually see it strengthen between hrs like 60 and 84...that short-lived 50/50 seems to add some confluence which allows for a + surface rise...it actually kind of noses out into NNE which is precisely when the CAD starts to set up. it kind of times out perfectly as modeled there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 is all of this ballyhoo about thurs storm? yes a few ip may fall in and around orange ma at the onset. im not excited.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nam looks colder. Still warmer then ec/gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro is a very cold solution...no doubt about it...Ray (NW of BOS by 14 miles) would even get several inches...and the interior like ORH hills would prob get 3-7" and then some ice/sleet before it ends. But this is the coldest guidance has ever been on this event, so its hard to take it too seriously yet...but its starting to get closer in the Euro "lethal" range...so we'll have to watch it more closely. The amazing thing is that its south enough it gives minimal precip to NNE. It looked like rain for them on previous progs. I'm not sure what to make of this, other than there is a distinct cooling trend, but I'm very weary of the Euro overdoing that trend. It did it in the 12/23 event. The EURO only fails within that range when it has a good soloution.....ala Dec 23. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The EURO only fails within that range when it has a good soloution.....ala Dec 23. Rain. It's funny because you would get Kevin by several inches if the euro verified..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow...I never saw this coming. A storm intially progged to cut thru Buffalo is actually now cold enough to bring most of SNE snow Pants tent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What is going to happen is it will end up cold enough for GC over to Dendrite to cash in (for a change, right)...maybe even N ORH co, but will end u being a cold rain fof the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Nam is warm and rain out towards its useless range only thing that matters is the trend and position of features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nam not on board with snow in southern nh alot warmer than euro snd gfs. It is slightly cooler than 6z we will see if trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There was an event like that in Jan 1994...Jan 28, 1994....the morning of Jan 27 was like 0F and below 0F in the radiational cooling spots...and by the morning of the 28th, we were seeing 50s penetrate SNE after front end snow and ice. Decent ice storm too, especially out in the Berks. Some areas ended up with a half inch or more of glaze before the low level cold got scoured out. I think there was even thunder reported as that warmth blasted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 yeah on the euro you can actually see it strengthen between hrs like 60 and 84...that short-lived 50/50 seems to add some confluence which allows for a + surface rise...it actually kind of noses out into NNE which is precisely when the CAD starts to set up. it kind of times out perfectly as modeled there. Both the Euro and GFS were doing this a coupled days ago. Euro I believe had a stronger high in the first place, but even the GFS increased surface pressures heading into the event. There were definitely some caution flags to going rain all the way to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Both the Euro and GFS were doing this a coupled days ago. Euro I believe had a stronger high in the first place, but even the GFS increased surface pressures heading into the event. There were definitely some caution flags to going rain all the way to the mountains. yeah honestly i hadn't even considered frozen anywhere south of the whites and w/n maine up until yesterday. i think the additional surge of weak/moderate CAA that happens tomorrow afternoon is a good thing for the interior areas. that innocuous feature rotating around the pv up in hudson bay linking up with this little northern stream shortwave crossing by seems to be shortening the period of early/mid week waa. for so long it looked like a huge wall of low and mid-level warmth got pushed northward starting tomorrow and was in full force by wednesday. that had the mid-levels absolutely roasting by late wed and into thur. that's being cut down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I would think this is a sloppy few inches for elevated areas at best ..maybe several inches north of MA/NH line.... That sort of thing.... But whatever falls would freeze solid and it would be nice to see white on the ground. What is going to happen is it will end up cold enough for GC over to Dendrite to cash in (for a change, right)...maybe even N ORH co, but will end u being a cold rain fof the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I would think this is a sloppy few inches for elevated areas at best ..maybe several inches north of MA/NH line.... That sort of thing.... But whatever falls would freeze solid and it would be nice to see white on the ground. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z gfs looks colder then 06z 1024mb high over Quebec sliding SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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